Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What are good analogs for the GFS track? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Chesapeake%E2%80%93Potomac_hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 H2oi or bust! I'm scheduled to be there too, idk anymore though. If the GFS is right the whole island would be underwater. Water would fill in from the bay and atlantic. Small world!! I'll have to keep an eye on it. It's a 10 hour drive from me and my car is bagged so if it floods I can just air it all the way up. The GFS does look worrisome but a lot can change between now and then I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yikes. If Euro hops aboard, it's gonna be go-time for me down here tomorrow. Lot of work to do around the house/yard and only one dry-ish day to do it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Chesapeake%E2%80%93Potomac_hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 and I thought I would be sleeping this week. lets get to work guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ya it's an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like an eye? quote] The storm in the last fram of the loop looks like the profile an evil head/face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sandy, 1933 (link/map above), Isabel, Fran are all good for bounds maybe at this point. It's not very common.. which is why almost anyone with a brain around here almost always bets against it. In some ways if you like hurricanes you're probably better off being on Long Island or Cape Cod than here.. tho every now and then we get a biggy. In that, I don't think one should hold too strongly to any rules other than the pattern and how it's progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very impressive modelling tonight starting to look like there is a concensus on a hit near/in the mid atlantic. The GFS surface pressure map has it coming ashore around 940mb, I do think that might be a bit strong at this junction but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue on twitter...https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/649077508911038464 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Those phantom hurricane warnings the other day are a bit spooky now seeing as though that exact solution has a shot at panning out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not sure where you live, but I'm not too concerned yet. I told my friends to just review their emergency preparedness plans and keep an eye on things, but we can see a lot of change this far out. Agee. Nothing is locked or impending. We have a pretty small landfall window in our region for damaging winds. First off, the center pretty much has to track to our south and west but still be close. Secondly, landfall pretty much has to be between the mouth of the bay and OBX for that to happen. Landfall anywhere is far from a lock at this point. Very long leads to have any confidence in anything. Having the strong gradient from the blocking hp to the N probably means damaging winds to the N of the center (assuming landfall anywhere to our south) would extend further than "normal" so there's that. If the latest gfs verifies the euro still saw it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Those phantom hurricane warnings the other day are a bit spooky now seeing as though that exact solution has a shot at panning out lol the NHC must have been psychic as the false warnings may end up being real for the same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GEFS ensemble mean has landfall of Joaquin near OBX it appears... anyone else confirm? Haven't seen individ members yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm really liking the current developing banding structure, this storm is ready for some rapid intensification, 24 hours will preform magic on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GEFS ensemble mean has landfall of Joaquin near OBX it appears... anyone else confirm? Haven't seen individ members yet... It does some really weird stuff and splits in two at 1000MB off the mouth of the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye see you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It does some really weird stuff and splits in two at 1000MB off the mouth of the bay? Well it's a mean, so that probably means there are two distinct clusters of ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The consistent PRE signal seems like a good signal. It more or less follows into that path of least resistance. Blocking helps build forecast accuracy. I think we're coming into solution territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well it's a mean, so that probably means there are two distinct clusters of ensembles. Aye, I suppose. Just kind of a mess. Weak, but in roughly the right spot given the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It does some really weird stuff and splits in two at 1000MB off the mouth of the bay? It's not so much weird, as it gets washed out because the lead time is too long and the solutions diverge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 0z CMC looks pretty nasty too... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015093000&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a big storm too. That will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 the NAM simply does not have the tropical cyclone initialization code that the GFS has, so expecting it to handle a tropical system where it is right now just isn't realistic. The NAM is forever broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours. Can confirm. I ran outside because it sounded odd but i think i caught the end, lots of little twigs and stuff down though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 thanks! was not expecting it, and it was kinda scary. almost wonder if some sort of gravity wave passed through. I think I saw a couple of folks out your way who experienced pretty strong winds as the rain was coming down. People in DC lost power but it is unclear if that was weather related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this post won't get much attention with the crazy Joaquin solutions on the table, but I'm wondering if anyone else experienced something similar to what we had in southern Howard County around 10:30PM tonight. Near the back edge of the heavy rain, the wind picked up for a few minutes and just started roaring. Lost power for almost 3 hours. Yes, some brief gales in the heavier clusters. I think it is related to Joaquin's outflow. Of course not at 10:30pm tho, as I am downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Might be wake low or something. There was some spin to that activity and a very sharp cutoff. Strong pressure gradient possible somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.