Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What are good analogs for the GFS track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I have a condo in Ocean City Thursday-Sunday for a car show so this should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Credit: Wxmeddler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The thing that has me riveted is the increasing chance of an unusual wnw track just to our south and relatively slow movement considering our latitude. This wouldn't be the typical hit and run of the very few that have similar tracks. I mean wow. A storm that would be talked about until I'm 6 feet under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Stock up on gasoline on that gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Credit: Wxmeddler For a minute I thought those were surface winds. These are the kinds of images that go viral for the wrong reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For a minute I thought those were surface winds. These are the kinds of images that go viral for the wrong reasons. Yeah, but thats because people don't read the whole image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The thing that has me riveted is the increasing chance of an unusual wnw track just to our south and relatively slow movement considering our latitude. This wouldn't be the typical hit and run of the very few that have similar tracks. I mean wow. A storm that would be talked about until I'm 6 feet under.There really isn't an analog. If it happened it'd be a 500 year event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The thing that has me riveted is the increasing chance of an unusual wnw track just to our south and relatively slow movement considering our latitude. This wouldn't be the typical hit and run of the very few that have similar tracks. I mean wow. A storm that would be talked about until I'm 6 feet under. That would be a heck of a call for who to evacuate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There really isn't an analog. If it happened it'd be a 500 year event That's what they said about Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sustained 60mph winds through the metros. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I may have to stay up for the euro now. Crush job. I'm gonna save it...If a landfall is really on the table, we will all be up tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What are good analogs for the GFS track? CIPS site isn't working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 100mph+ winds possible for DC on the GFS could be a national disaster if that happens and catastrophic flooding along the tidewater with 125mph+ winds would be a $10billion+ disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I have a condo in Ocean City Thursday-Sunday for a car show so this should be interesting.H2oi or bust! I'm scheduled to be there too, idk anymore though. If the GFS is right the whole island would be underwater. Water would fill in from the bay and atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sustained 60mph winds through the metros. Nasty. Isabel was nothing compared to what is advertised in terms of rain and wind....in terms of storm surge, I imagine this would be worse too which is scary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 H2oi or bust! I'm scheduled to be there too, idk anymore though. If the GFS is right the whole island would be underwater. Water would fill in from the bay and atlantic. Someone knows what's up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 100mph+ winds possible for DC on the GFS could be a national disaster if that happens and catastrophic flooding along the tidewater with 125mph+ winds would be a $10billion+ disaster Thankfully that scenario isn't on the table at this point. Maybe for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Isabel was nothing compared to what is advertised in terms of rain and wind....in terms of storm surge, I imagine this would be worse too which is scary....Isabel moved quickly too that's the thing and didn't have a basin wide PRE occurring. The GFS shows a scary scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rumors of UKmet in the Delaware Bay, need confirm asap. Meteocentre will have it in 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thankfully that scenario isn't on the table at this point. Maybe for the coast. Regardless, those isobars don't look fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well if the Euro did the same thing later tonight. You talk about sweating bullets.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well if the Euro did the same thing later tonight. You talk about sweating bullets.. euro should show the solution by 2:15 or so...might stay up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Isabel was nothing compared to what is advertised in terms of rain and wind....in terms of storm surge, I imagine this would be worse too which is scary.... IIRC Isabel had a nasty S-SE fetch into the mouth of the bay leading in. Gfs is ene leading in to the worst conditions. Western shore would be a mess from the slosh but the bay itself wouldn't be swollen too bad verbatim. Not downplaying the scenario though. Damage would be extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 UMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z GGEM at 66 and 72 for DCA is heavy heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This was captured by hr 72 and it became abundantly clear what the final result would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00z UKIE at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ukie landfall at 983mb slightly north of GGEM solution, not much spread between landfall locations besides timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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