Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I feel like we're capable of getting shafted being on the west side of a tropical storm winding up the coast Any chance that happens again? I'd almost lean it coming in too far south vs too far north at this point.. though the Euro has me a little perplexed. Maybe it's right and this is just a bunch of bluster. But its ensembles have been west if not a hit. Plus it's pretty far east. Just the way the incoming trough is modeled I don't know how far north it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Just putting this here. I don't know about the possibility though... not big into tropical weather. I know Ryan is pretty good with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 0z GFS is absolutely crushing SE VA through hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 DT still thinks euro is right Sent from my iPhone His logic is fine though he may be over hugging the Euro.. shock right. It does need to get to about 75 west.. perhaps even a bit west of that.. at least based on history. BUT the record is not full of storms in these parts so it's not impossible it could make it from east of there either. Maybe everything's about to fold. You definitely usually want the euro in your camp but at the moment the op Euro is a bit on its own at least when it comes to the globals and their ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Heavy rains return to DC late Friday hr 75 and esp hr 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 3.57" in the rain gauge this evening, a lot of it falling in 45 minutes. Pretty damn impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Here it comes. Captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Post GFS maps please Sent from my iPhone http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015093000&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=087 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah lol I'm stuck at 36 and it is killing me. Try InstantWeatherMaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah lol I'm stuck at 36 and it is killing me. I hate instantweathermaps maps, but they always come out faster than every other site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/649070054450032640 Coming in a lot hotter than 18Z at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks south and west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 LANDFALL near ORF at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 :gulp: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 wow, sure didn't see that coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS has Joaquin meander westward through S VA through 117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Coming in hot and heavy at hrs 111 and 114. 7" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ocean city better hope this run does not come to fruition. It would be almost end game with the surge and those up the Chesapeake would be devastated with a combination of rivers flooding throughout the basin and that trajectory/intensity combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It has surpassed Sandy in central pressure. 939mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Time to sound the alarm bells? No. Maybe at 12z tomorrow if Euro gets on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The high over Quebec is stronger and further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Time to sound the alarm bells?Well I would say the news outlets will start their usual behaviors, but this time it's warranted possibly. I can sense in Ian's tone too he is bullish on the potential this one could possess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 People should visit Annapolis this week before it is under 10' of water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No. Maybe at 12z tomorrow if Euro gets on board. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Still 4/5 days out... important to watch trends and not an exact landfall point at this point. Can easily be 150+ miles off (south or north) this far out... Definitely interesting (concerning) that 2 straight GFS runs brings the storm into Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Really it's a huge problem if this does hit US mainland anywhere north of OBX. The flooding PRE rains plus the sustained push of water would be a historic combo along the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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