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Drought busting rains PRE event


dailylurker

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ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 71.7W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas as issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

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It's definitely cranking lol. I'm trying to talk myself down but it's not working. There are still a few pieces missing but I don't think I've seen anything this close for us.. Sandy never really looked like this around here IMO.

I agree ensemble swings in the past 12 hours should have our region at full flag. 

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Are you saying Cat 2-3 to impact the MA? Or are you saying a 2-3 gets it up to us and a stronger storm could be wrapped in earlier to NC?

I think we'd want it about that strong at peak for it to be a big hit up here.. Which would seemingly be weaker given how these things go. Tonight's early suite favors about cat 2 at landfall which could probably sustain a cat 1 into this area or other inland spots where it comes in.. Should it do so of course.

Maybe the models will bail but we aren't that far out anymore. If 0z locks in on west.. Go time.

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NHC shifts track to the west somewhat but not nearly as much as some of the 18z model guidance.

 

025533W5_NL_sm.gif

Just an opinion but I think they are really trying to save face from the last fiasco. Until they are certain they should keep the cone east as the OTS solution is still viable. It's way to easy for them to go middle of the road and shift west and have it plastered all over social media and then the hype train starts. 

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I will also say that, at least this season, the NHC has made an effort to not make dramatic changes to their track from full advisory to full advisory. If you go back and look at past discussions, the NHC cites guidance doing one thing, but them only making modest changes to track for "consistency". Not making a comment on whether that is right or wrong, but I think they will slowly make the necessary changes to track if they see stability from the models. 

 

With it this far out and with this many moving parts, I have no problem with conservatism.  If they were doing the same tomorrow night or Thursday morning, I might have some beef.

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I will also say that, at least this season, the NHC has made an effort to not make dramatic changes to their track from full advisory to full advisory. If you go back and look at past discussions, the NHC cites guidance doing one thing, but them only making modest changes to track for "consistency". Not making a comment on whether that is right or wrong, but I think they will slowly make the necessary changes to track if they see stability from the models. 

I agree, I think it has always been an NHC stance to maintain a consistent product unless the models completely swing left or right. They did nudge left but they still weighted the ECMWF solution heavily. 

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I mentioned on Twitter but this is how disasters start when you tell stories.. "after months of no weather, a big rain hit.. then came the real deal."

We could possibly get the amount of climatological expected rain of a 70 day interval but all

that in only 7 days.

i.e. all of the rain from July 1 to September 08 but in 7 days.

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I agree, I think it has always been an NHC stance to maintain a consistent product unless the models completely swing left or right. They did nudge left but they still weighted the ECMWF solution heavily. 

And actually to be honest I think the forecast is probably 90% FSUSE and then maybe a little bit of personal preference and social knowledge.

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I think we'd want it about that strong at peak for it to be a big hit up here.. Which would seemingly be weaker given how these things go. Tonight's early suite favors about cat 2 at landfall which could probably sustain a cat 1 into this area or other inland spots where it comes in.. Should it do so of course.

Maybe the models will bail but we aren't that far out anymore. If 0z locks in on west.. Go time.

Continuing to try to talk yourself down is probably a good idea at least until tomorrow night's 0Z suite :) Cat 1 actual hurricane in this area happened like once before in records, in the 1870's. I know you know this-- Hazel went ET, etc. But, yes, for hurricane conditions, we've had 2 instances in 150-years (3 if you include 1896). 1933 should have had a decent shot of being a hurricane heading towards our location given it's landfall location and strength, but it's not easy for anything to survive as a real hurricane up at our latitude. 

 

In the end, though, even a repeat of Fran-conditions here would be plenty exciting for everyone in this subforum.

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It could go gangbusters in the near term for sure. Tomorrow looks like a prime RI day.

I'd love to talk about what a deeper storm means on how this interacts on the complicated upper levels. It really is a crazy synoptic solution to discuss with confidence. You have so many different interactions between the digging trough the ridge to the north the interaction with the convection to the east creating a weakness.

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Continuing to try to talk yourself down is probably a good idea at least until tomorrow night's 0Z suite :) Cat 1 actual hurricane in this area happened like once before in records, in the 1890's. I know you know this-- Hazel went ET, etc. But, yes, for hurricane conditions, we've had 2 instances in 150-years (3 if you include 1896). 1933 should have had a decent shot of being a hurricane heading towards our location given it's landfall location and strength, but it's not easy for anything to survive as a real hurricane up at our latitude. 

 

In the end, though, even a repeat of Fran-conditions here would be plenty exciting for everyone in this subforum.

Well my comments were more in line with the broader mid-atlantic. I don't know where it's going to come in assuming it does that which is still a fairly large assumption.  This is a pretty great pattern though IMO. I'm one to run to climo bounds and whatnot for sure.. often to a fault. But I dunno there's something about how this is coming together so far. Even a strong TS into the DC area would be a huge blow to the region.

 

In theory it actually has a pretty good window thru the rest of the work week at least to intensity. Of course it won't thru that whole period etc etc. I think things like the anomalous ssts are likely in our 'favor' here too.

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I'd love to talk about what a deeper storm means on how this interacts on the complicated upper levels. It really is a crazy synoptic solution to discuss with confidence. You have so many different interactions between the digging trough the ridge to the north the interaction with the convection to the east creating a weakness.

I'm not sure tho the Euro seemed to get it messed up with the westerlies when it dropped south too far.. tho it also had more of a closed 500 low west than some other models. I do think a strong storm means it's much less likely that we're talking about a heavily transitioned storm if one should approach the coast.  I guess maybe we 'want' general maint in like next 24 or so before a strengthening into a turn and move tho I haven't pulled up any of the current steering charts for diff intensities so mainly going off modeling.

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Well my comments were more in line with the broader mid-atlantic. I don't know where it's going to come in assuming it does that which is still a fairly large assumption.  This is a pretty great pattern though IMO. I'm one to run to climo bounds and whatnot for sure.. often to a fault. But I dunno there's something about how this is coming together so far. Even a strong TS into the DC area would be a huge blow to the region.

 

In theory it actually has a pretty good window thru the rest of the work week at least to intensity. Of course it won't thru that whole period etc etc. I think things like the anomalous ssts are likely in our 'favor' here too.

 

I feel like we're capable of getting shafted being on the west side of a tropical storm winding up the coast  Any chance that happens again?

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I'm not sure tho the Euro seemed to get it messed up with the westerlies when it dropped south too far.. tho it also had more of a closed 500 low west than some other models. I do think a strong storm means it's much less likely that we're talking about a heavily transitioned storm if one should approach the coast.  I guess maybe we 'want' general maint in like next 24 or so before a strengthening into a turn and move tho I haven't pulled up any of the current steering charts for diff intensities so mainly going off modeling.

Actually Sam Lillo mentioned recently on Twitter:

 

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/649061667687546885

 

Positive feedback. The stronger #Joaquin gets -> stronger UL ridging to the north -> greater baroclinic growth of the upstream s/w

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That NAM run is more of a cry for help than an actual forecast aid. The "solution" is to bring Joaquin to within 10 mbs of its current pressure while deepening Ida.

 

On a more serious note, this thing looks very good by 2013-15 standards and could end up giving Sandy a run for his money. The main question is, where will that contest take place? Hopefully not where millions of people have to be moved but you can read between the lines that NHC are thinking uh-oh.

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