yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ULLETINTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120151100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT ORWEDNESDAY......HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...25.8N 71.7WABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:The government of the Bahamas as issued a Hurricane Watch for theCentral Bahamas.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Central Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's definitely cranking lol. I'm trying to talk myself down but it's not working. There are still a few pieces missing but I don't think I've seen anything this close for us.. Sandy never really looked like this around here IMO. I agree ensemble swings in the past 12 hours should have our region at full flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 105mph in 72 hrs projected by NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Intriguing to note that NHC goes conservafive on strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It should be noted that early guidance for Sandy, although slightly different did overestimate the swing back into the coast. It is similar in setup and model trends towards a crazy swing into the coast never came into fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Are you saying Cat 2-3 to impact the MA? Or are you saying a 2-3 gets it up to us and a stronger storm could be wrapped in earlier to NC?I think we'd want it about that strong at peak for it to be a big hit up here.. Which would seemingly be weaker given how these things go. Tonight's early suite favors about cat 2 at landfall which could probably sustain a cat 1 into this area or other inland spots where it comes in.. Should it do so of course. Maybe the models will bail but we aren't that far out anymore. If 0z locks in on west.. Go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 4.38" according to my gauge and its been pouring for hours. No flash flood warning? You are on the same track as I was. My final reading is 5.75". Starting to see reports and photos of flooded roads around Frederick Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC shifts track to the west somewhat but not nearly as much as some of the 18z model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Intriguing to note that NHC goes conservafive on strengthening And on track. They'll wait for GFS and Euro before pulling the Cat1 trigger and new track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Intriguing to note that NHC goes conservafive on strengthening My guess is it will be quite a bit stronger...Cat 3/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC shifts track to the west somewhat but not nearly as much as some of the 18z model guidance. Just an opinion but I think they are really trying to save face from the last fiasco. Until they are certain they should keep the cone east as the OTS solution is still viable. It's way to easy for them to go middle of the road and shift west and have it plastered all over social media and then the hype train starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My guess is it will be quite a bit stronger...Cat 3/4 agreed, nothing other than intense upwelling could slow this storm down. Very high THC and very favorable upper level dynamics give this storm an excellent environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I will also say that, at least this season, the NHC has made an effort to not make dramatic changes to their track from full advisory to full advisory. If you go back and look at past discussions, the NHC cites guidance doing one thing, but them only making modest changes to track for "consistency". Not making a comment on whether that is right or wrong, but I think they will slowly make the necessary changes to track if they see stability from the models. With it this far out and with this many moving parts, I have no problem with conservatism. If they were doing the same tomorrow night or Thursday morning, I might have some beef. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I will also say that, at least this season, the NHC has made an effort to not make dramatic changes to their track from full advisory to full advisory. If you go back and look at past discussions, the NHC cites guidance doing one thing, but them only making modest changes to track for "consistency". Not making a comment on whether that is right or wrong, but I think they will slowly make the necessary changes to track if they see stability from the models. I agree, I think it has always been an NHC stance to maintain a consistent product unless the models completely swing left or right. They did nudge left but they still weighted the ECMWF solution heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I mentioned on Twitter but this is how disasters start when you tell stories.. "after months of no weather, a big rain hit.. then came the real deal." We could possibly get the amount of climatological expected rain of a 70 day interval but all that in only 7 days. i.e. all of the rain from July 1 to September 08 but in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree, I think it has always been an NHC stance to maintain a consistent product unless the models completely swing left or right. They did nudge left but they still weighted the ECMWF solution heavily. And actually to be honest I think the forecast is probably 90% FSUSE and then maybe a little bit of personal preference and social knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 agreed, nothing other than intense upwelling could slow this storm down. Very high THC and very favorable upper level dynamics give this storm an excellent environment. I see what ya did there lol. 2" here for round one. Nice tropical downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My guess is it will be quite a bit stronger...Cat 3/4 I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I see what ya did there lol. 2" here for round one. Nice tropical downpours. Round 2 is going to be interesting. Where that outflow boundary from Joaquin establishes is going to have an intense rainfall with extreme moisture convergence and PWATS off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree Final prediction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agreeIt could go gangbusters in the near term for sure. Tomorrow looks like a prime RI day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think we'd want it about that strong at peak for it to be a big hit up here.. Which would seemingly be weaker given how these things go. Tonight's early suite favors about cat 2 at landfall which could probably sustain a cat 1 into this area or other inland spots where it comes in.. Should it do so of course. Maybe the models will bail but we aren't that far out anymore. If 0z locks in on west.. Go time. Continuing to try to talk yourself down is probably a good idea at least until tomorrow night's 0Z suite Cat 1 actual hurricane in this area happened like once before in records, in the 1870's. I know you know this-- Hazel went ET, etc. But, yes, for hurricane conditions, we've had 2 instances in 150-years (3 if you include 1896). 1933 should have had a decent shot of being a hurricane heading towards our location given it's landfall location and strength, but it's not easy for anything to survive as a real hurricane up at our latitude. In the end, though, even a repeat of Fran-conditions here would be plenty exciting for everyone in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It could go gangbusters in the near term for sure. Tomorrow looks like a prime RI day. I'd love to talk about what a deeper storm means on how this interacts on the complicated upper levels. It really is a crazy synoptic solution to discuss with confidence. You have so many different interactions between the digging trough the ridge to the north the interaction with the convection to the east creating a weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Final prediction? Max intensity? 130-135mph somewhere in the low 940s upper 930s, this isn't at landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Continuing to try to talk yourself down is probably a good idea at least until tomorrow night's 0Z suite Cat 1 actual hurricane in this area happened like once before in records, in the 1890's. I know you know this-- Hazel went ET, etc. But, yes, for hurricane conditions, we've had 2 instances in 150-years (3 if you include 1896). 1933 should have had a decent shot of being a hurricane heading towards our location given it's landfall location and strength, but it's not easy for anything to survive as a real hurricane up at our latitude. In the end, though, even a repeat of Fran-conditions here would be plenty exciting for everyone in this subforum. Well my comments were more in line with the broader mid-atlantic. I don't know where it's going to come in assuming it does that which is still a fairly large assumption. This is a pretty great pattern though IMO. I'm one to run to climo bounds and whatnot for sure.. often to a fault. But I dunno there's something about how this is coming together so far. Even a strong TS into the DC area would be a huge blow to the region. In theory it actually has a pretty good window thru the rest of the work week at least to intensity. Of course it won't thru that whole period etc etc. I think things like the anomalous ssts are likely in our 'favor' here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm off Friday. Thinking of making a drive to OC. As much as I like a good storm, losing power does kinda suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd love to talk about what a deeper storm means on how this interacts on the complicated upper levels. It really is a crazy synoptic solution to discuss with confidence. You have so many different interactions between the digging trough the ridge to the north the interaction with the convection to the east creating a weakness. I'm not sure tho the Euro seemed to get it messed up with the westerlies when it dropped south too far.. tho it also had more of a closed 500 low west than some other models. I do think a strong storm means it's much less likely that we're talking about a heavily transitioned storm if one should approach the coast. I guess maybe we 'want' general maint in like next 24 or so before a strengthening into a turn and move tho I haven't pulled up any of the current steering charts for diff intensities so mainly going off modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well my comments were more in line with the broader mid-atlantic. I don't know where it's going to come in assuming it does that which is still a fairly large assumption. This is a pretty great pattern though IMO. I'm one to run to climo bounds and whatnot for sure.. often to a fault. But I dunno there's something about how this is coming together so far. Even a strong TS into the DC area would be a huge blow to the region. In theory it actually has a pretty good window thru the rest of the work week at least to intensity. Of course it won't thru that whole period etc etc. I think things like the anomalous ssts are likely in our 'favor' here too. I feel like we're capable of getting shafted being on the west side of a tropical storm winding up the coast Any chance that happens again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm not sure tho the Euro seemed to get it messed up with the westerlies when it dropped south too far.. tho it also had more of a closed 500 low west than some other models. I do think a strong storm means it's much less likely that we're talking about a heavily transitioned storm if one should approach the coast. I guess maybe we 'want' general maint in like next 24 or so before a strengthening into a turn and move tho I haven't pulled up any of the current steering charts for diff intensities so mainly going off modeling. Actually Sam Lillo mentioned recently on Twitter: https://twitter.com/splillo/status/649061667687546885 Positive feedback. The stronger #Joaquin gets -> stronger UL ridging to the north -> greater baroclinic growth of the upstream s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That NAM run is more of a cry for help than an actual forecast aid. The "solution" is to bring Joaquin to within 10 mbs of its current pressure while deepening Ida. On a more serious note, this thing looks very good by 2013-15 standards and could end up giving Sandy a run for his money. The main question is, where will that contest take place? Hopefully not where millions of people have to be moved but you can read between the lines that NHC are thinking uh-oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.