North Balti Zen Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Drought over . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z NAM finished... and 00z NAM has started... so they must have fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 3.31" here and still raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes glad to hear the rain has slowed down. Currently at 5.70". Flooding will be bad here. School bus routes should be interesting tomorrow morning. 5.7" agrees with the average depth in my parking lot from eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Over 5" now. Actually 5.15". A lot of lightning waiting for the backside to come through. Lightning? Hmm, I have to go look. It is heading in my general direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Extrapolating the 18z NAM looks like a landfall somewhere in Eastern NC FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lightning? Hmm, I have to go look. It is heading in my general direction. Just heard a rumble of thunder here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lightning? Hmm, I have to go look. It is heading in my general direction. Yes still getting some lightning and thunder. If it holds it is going to get crazy for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Geez, just goes to show what Lorenz predictability of a chaotic system can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poodleusier Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You have that right. It has gotten crazy over here. The rain is so loud, lightning and wind. My station is currently at 4.64" of rain and it is still coming down. I'm at 4.92". Roads are like rivers. Hope everything drains by the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Most Sref members make landfall. The mean hits eastern North Carolina at 9z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm at 4.92". Roads are like rivers. Hope everything drains by the morning. Hey there! Yea hoping things clear up but expecting a lot of road closures around the county. One of them being right behind me on Elmer Derr Rd at the bottom of the S curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NAM says "what strong storm" "im going to hangout down here for ... forever and dissipate" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NAM says "what strong storm" "im going to hangout down here for ... forever and dissipate" 00z run is only out to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is OTS....no US landfall....still should get some heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is OTS....no US landfall....still should get some heavy rains Looks like the EURO OP doesn't agree with its ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is OTS....no US landfall....still should get some heavy rains?? Euro doesn't initialize until 1:45a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is OTS....no US landfall....still should get some heavy rains Thanks for old news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Oh wow thanks for posting Looks like the EURO OP doesn't agree with its ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 4.42" of rain .. and a dang leak in my under 2 YO house! I hope I can do something before the real rain hits! I see the culprit! Ditch digging to commence early tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.6" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Oh wow thanks for posting Borrowed these Euro ensembles tc tracks from losetoa6 who got them from MaineJay on the other site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.33" at bwi thru 10. The way radar is looking, September is going to end up a lot closer to normal precip for the month. Who'da thunk that a week ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thanks for old news. I know it's old news, but why would anyone get excited about an inferior model, especially with this much uncertainty and lead time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Intense rainfall with some lightning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I fell outta the thread before the dumping. (that was a solid dumping) But.. dang.. this might be the one. Interested to see tonight's guidance and if it starts to lock in better on west option given stronger sys and more obs etc. I still think we want like high end cat 2 or a cat 3 down south but ssts are chock full of warmth. If it's a strong system it's going to win the battle with the mid-latitude trough so we're likelier to get a pretty full on tropical hit (with the typical latitude challenged caveats). I mentioned on Twitter but this is how disasters start when you tell stories.. "after months of no weather, a big rain hit.. then came the real deal." Now I'm not suggesting this is a given and it could easily go some other direction or end up far enough south we miss the core but I'd definitely think big time ramp up is near if 0z looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 4.38" according to my gauge and its been pouring for hours. No flash flood warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I fell outta the thread before the dumping. (that was a solid dumping) But.. dang.. this might be the one. Interested to see tonight's guidance and if it starts to lock in better on west option given stronger sys and more obs etc. I still think we want like high end cat 2 or a cat 3 down south but ssts are chock full of warmth. If it's a strong system it's going to win the battle with the mid-latitude trough so we're likelier to get a pretty full on tropical hit (with the typical latitude challenged caveats). I mentioned on Twitter but this is how disasters start when you tell stories.. "after months of no weather, a big rain hit.. then came the real deal." Now I'm not suggesting this is a given and it could easily go some other direction or end up far enough south we miss the core but I'd definitely think big time ramp up is near if 0z looks interesting. First solid that I've seen from you in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 First solid that I've seen from you in a while. It's definitely cranking lol. I'm trying to talk myself down but it's not working. There are still a few pieces missing but I don't think I've seen anything this close for us.. Sandy never really looked like this around here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I fell outta the thread before the dumping. (that was a solid dumping) But.. dang.. this might be the one. Interested to see tonight's guidance and if it starts to lock in better on west option given stronger sys and more obs etc. I still think we want like high end cat 2 or a cat 3 down south but ssts are chock full of warmth. If it's a strong system it's going to win the battle with the mid-latitude trough so we're likelier to get a pretty full on tropical hit (with the typical latitude challenged caveats). I mentioned on Twitter but this is how disasters start when you tell stories.. "after months of no weather, a big rain hit.. then came the real deal." Now I'm not suggesting this is a given and it could easily go some other direction or end up far enough south we miss the core but I'd definitely think big time ramp up is near if 0z looks interesting. Are you saying Cat 2-3 to impact the MA? Or are you saying a 2-3 gets it up to us and a stronger storm could be wrapped in earlier to NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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