Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HWRF landfall in OBX between 18z-21z Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This might be a good time to upgrade my "last generator I could get that wasn't sold out that could be delivered before Sandy hit" generator to something a bit better than 1000W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HWRF landfall in OBX between 18z-21z Saturday evening. Central NJ... Cape May... Chesapeake mouth... OBX... I'd say that's trending towards the Euro's suppression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ENS really close now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Would you be ok if your kids got in harms way? They won't. I raised them to be completely aware of weather at all times. The real problem would arise if I didn't pay close attention to weather and went camping with them on the banks of the potomac at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GEFS is way south. Mean landfall around Hatteras. All but 2 members show landfalls, only one member shows a later landfall than the GFS. 15z SREF is also further south and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin is looking healthy this evening. It would not surprise me if this was a Cat 1 by sunrise tomorrow. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop0-lalo.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
litigator01 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 They won't. I raised them to be completely aware of weather at all times. The real problem would arise if I didn't pay close attention to weather and went camping with them on the banks of the potomac at landfall. This is just stupid. Regardless of how aware of weather you are, bad things can happen. And you and your family aren't the only people that matter. It would still be tragic if something happened to another family's kid...even if he/she hadn't been "raised to be completely aware of weather at all times," and thus enjoy your family's imperviousness to falling trees or flood waters. Weather is fun. Bad things happening to people and their property makes it less fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This is just stupid. Regardless of how aware of weather you are, bad things can happen. And you and your family aren't the only people that matter. It would still be tragic if something happened to another family's kid...even if he/she hadn't been "raised to be completely aware of weather at all times," and thus enjoy your family's imperviousness to falling trees or flood waters. Weather is fun. Bad things happening to people and their property makes it less fun. Banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. Hey brother, finally getting some rain. I know what you mean. Deep down I also would like to see worst case. But I guess I just fear the reality of it. Derecho was pretty bad in my neighborhood . This would make that look tame. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't see anything unethical about having an interest in experiencing an intense weather event. For anyone bothered, start a 72 and partly cloudy thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event.Count me out on this one Bob. I hate tropical systems because I despise losing power and dealing with potential property damage/loss. Plus, I loaned someone my mega cooler and if I don't get it back quick I know we'll get nailed. Superstitious? D@mn right when comes to tropical systems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 P.S. We don't have a great track record for having big snowy seasons following tropical hits if memory serves. 99/00 maybe only exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Appears we may have a eye beginning to form. west movement is becoming evident http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/ir_lalo-animated.gifhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gifhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Extreme weather events are awe inspiring. No changing that. Our desires have nothing to do with what happens. Still, I don't want to see people lose their homes and possibly their lives so that I can be awed. I'll pass. Extreme snow rarely causes damage to homes and only kills the stupid. Tornadoes, hurricanes, floods...different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 P.S. We don't have a great track record for having big snowy seasons following tropical hits if memory serves. 99/00 maybe only exception. Was thinking about this earlier Mitch. 12-13 wasn't a bad winter out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was thinking about this earlier Mitch. 12-13 wasn't a bad winter out here. In the end, it's only winter that matters.p.s. 12/13 sucked here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 40 years ago almost to the day. Here's a little talked about hurricane. ( hey..I was around for this) The really incredible part is that was only 3 short years after the "100 year storm" Hurricane/TS Agnes and nearly equaled it in parts of MD though I don't think flooding was as epic from my memory. Heck, Agnes might have been dubbed a 500 year storm at the time my memory over 40+ years is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z GEFS supports the Op pretty well I'd say. Mega rain on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Many factors in play with this event. 500mb steering if correct is a neg tilt upper cutoff which should pull Juaquin NW along with a draw of incredibly deep moisture. Regardless of Juaquin's track we are going to see some incredible rainfall amounts (if these trends continue). All the rain in advance of the tropical system will weaken tree roots leading to tree and power line damage. Coastal flooding would be big for the western bay and Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm more worried about the event right now... 1.14" and still raining super hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Time to clear the gutters and police the yard. Another 48 hours or so and I could be making the old bread/water/TP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So imagine this 6-8" of rain causing river flooding then a storm surge comes.. well hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Many factors in play with this event. 500mb steering if correct is a neg tilt upper cutoff which should pull Juaquin NW along with a draw of incredibly deep moisture. Regardless of Juaquin's track we are going to see some incredible rainfall amounts (if these trends continue). All the rain in advance of the tropical system will weaken tree roots leading to tree and power line damage. Coastal flooding would be big for the western bay and Potomac.As dry as it has been, we may be in a little better shape than under normal conditions. My yard was as hard as a rock this evening and I think some of this will drain off. Of course, even if that's true, there will come a point of saturation when we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.10" over here. With the fog and down pours driving is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With the age of electronics everywhere, I think the impacts will be flooded cars with ruined electronics and large scale power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All the usual spots....annapolis, bowleys quarters, fells pt are fooked if this happens as per the gfs....or even close to it. And my in laws just moved to coastal delaware in april. They may end up regretting it if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 78/76 at Hatteras 8pm Ughhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 eye? Uh Oh, DRY AIR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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