yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Can't buy into a historical prog at Day 4-5 obviously, but it's not as if the 18z GFS is totally alone on this. 12z Ukie had something similar, although a bit further south. Certainly a big cluster of 12z GEFS members brought Joaquin into the Tidewater as well. Yup... I want to see how many 18z ensembles buy the GFS OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Pulling me out of Mid-Atl semi-retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I have no idea how accurate the instantweathermaps.com wind maps are, but they show sustained winds of 50-60 with gusts of 75-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We just got MCD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0520 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA INTO LOWER MDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELYVALID 292220Z - 292345ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENTSUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS NOTANTICIPATED.DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AGRADUAL DEEPENING/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS OVER ERN VA WITH THEMOST INTENSE STORM PRESENT OVER SURRY COUNTY AS OF 22Z. A DEEPERCONVECTIVE ELEMENT EXHIBITING SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WAS ALSOOBSERVED FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY AT THISTIME.WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITYMAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO ALOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION TRACKING NNEWD THROUGH THE VA PIEDMONT.WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANTDESTABILIZATION OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THISAFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY MITIGATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZEDSEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCEOF A VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLEDWITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH A MODERATE AMOUNT OFLOW-LEVEL SHEAR /REF. CURRENT WSR-88D VAD FROM AKQ AND LWX/ MAYPROMOTE SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A RISK FOR PERHAPS A BRIEFTORNADO. DUE TO SHORT DURATION AND VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF THETHREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...MEAD.. 09/29/2015ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like an eye might be trying to pop on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My daughter's field trip to the Chesapeake Bay just got canx'd... I think I might take her place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This two-threat thread isn't working. Today's stuff over to the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh dear Lord yes to that GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If this track were to happen, Lets hope for the best case scenario... Eye stays over Bay for as long as possible on its way up here! What a modeled track! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This two-threat thread isn't working. Today's stuff over to the obs thread? Good idea. Some of the rain calls could verify by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Can the pope come back and save us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like the book ends are the 18z GFS (worst case) and the 12z EURO (best case). As mentioned earlier, its hard to go full bore on that GFS solution 4 days out but with the recent strengthening of Joaquin and support from the UKMET/HWRF/GFS ENS it does give you pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The rain the next couple days will make it very easy for any decent winds to mow down some trees if this storm goes 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Shear weakened some 10kts already. BOMBS AWAY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GEFS is way south. Mean landfall around Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Stating the obvious of course but if Joaquin gets absorbed it's going to be fun here. Because the of the nasty block, our area seems like the most likely ground zero for landfall in general or to the south and not to our north. Hard to say how strong Joaquin is if it happens that way but it would be more than just downpours. Also, if it tracks just to our south and then to our west we would be on the good side for spinning things if they are around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Two dead 80' oaks in my neighbor's yard may finally come down. Probably on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS Verbatim at BWI. Presented without comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS Verbatim at BWI. Presented without comment. 2015092015_18zGFS_KBWI_Landfall_Hr114.PNG I'll comment. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Be careful what you wish for. That was a devastating run for the area & local beaches I'll take a toned down version please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Be careful what you wish for. That was a devastating run for the area & local beaches I'll take a toned down version please. I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. Boom this^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Can't have a thread like this without water vapor loop. The Pac AND the gulf are aimed at us. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. God bless...you can have it,no power for 10 days here (sandy) i'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If we get what several of the models have been putting out, it would be devastating. 5.65" since Friday on my station in Roanoke with some areas up to 8" already. My legend doesn't go high enough to cover what has fallen south of Roanoke. Really glad I only added 2" today but that is still around 8 for this combo storm. Anything close to what either the 12z Euro or the 18z GFS throws out and we are in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 So glad I got my broken sump pump fixed last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 UKMET ensembles posted in the SE forum. They look pretty tightly clustered around a NC/VA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 God bless...you can have it,no power for 10 days here (sandy) i'll pass. Eh, even if I root with all 10 fingers and toes against it, it won't change anything. And I have a great generator. And grill. And chainsaw. And 4 kids so built in free labor. I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll be keeping an eye on this... http://waterdata.usgs.gov/md/nwis/uv?site_no=01646500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm morally clean from any weather event. The only thing I'm in control of is not having my property properly prepared or worse, travelling to an area I shouldn't be in. I will root for the most extreme scenario every single time for every single event. Pretty lame post. Extreme tropical event scenario much different than extreme snowfall. No fun. Would you be ok if your kids got in harms way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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