mappy Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:34 PM, snowfan said: Ha. Your 8" will go a long way. 8? GFS is maybe 6.5" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z UKIE is both and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:38 PM, H2O said: the 12z GFS looks more like the 12z euro from yesterday if that is the case. 12z euro was the best case (or worst depending on how you look at it) scenario with a full capture. Unfortunately 0z was further south with Joaquin. 12z gfs today was right in between the 2 euro runs. I'm thinking the same thing Ian is. Today's 12z euro could spit out a really fun scenario. Even if it doesn't show the capture the possibility is very much still on the table for at least another day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 3.25" and still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It took awhile but it looks like my event may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:48 PM, leesburg 04 said: It took awhile but it looks like my event may happen The great Nokesville Event of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:43 PM, Bob Chill said: 12z euro was the best case (or worst depending on how you look at it) scenario with a full capture. Unfortunately 0z was further south with Joaquin. 12z gfs today was right in between the 2 euro runs. I'm thinking the same thing Ian is. Today's 12z euro could spit out a really fun scenario. Even if it doesn't show the capture the possibility is very much still on the table for at least another day or 2. The block is pretty uber. And low keeps coming west more than expected in short term. I'm less sure it'll be very strong but I really doubt it goes way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:51 PM, Ian said: The block is pretty uber. And low keeps coming west more than expected in short term. I'm less sure it'll be very strong but I really doubt it goes way OTS. Recon has an extrapolated 995 mb pressure and the circulation seems to have tucked under the explosion of convection. We'll see what he does when the shear relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:54 PM, cmichweather said: Recon has an extrapolated 995 mb pressure and the circulation seems to have tucked under the explosion of convection. We'll see what he does when the shear relaxes. yeah it has been looking better lately.. flare up of lightning in the convection too. it's still a bit east per prior climo tracks to make a hit on the US but I'm not sure that matters much since it's such a small sample. the pattern is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:54 PM, Ian said: Hrs 114-120 are pretty nice for our region as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:58 PM, yoda said: Hrs 114-120 are pretty nice for our region as well was just showing landfall mainly.. since it's the cmc and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:59 PM, Ian said: was just showing landfall mainly.. since it's the cmc and all. Just give it a few more runs and we can get the -0c line just to our south. Mid levels might be a touch warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Canadians apparently don't like New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:59 PM, Ian said: was just showing landfall mainly.. since it's the cmc and all. Ah okay, my bad. I just liked hr 120 in the DC region... 967mb just off OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:02 PM, stormtracker said: Just give it a few more runs and we can get the -0c line just to our south. Mid levels might be a touch warm though. We typically flip to sleet for a while with these tropical events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:03 PM, H2O said: We typically flip to sleet for a while with these tropical events Rates will overcome the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:03 PM, Eskimo Joe said: The Canadians apparently don't like New Jersey. gem_mslp_wind_neus_21.png Quebecois love Wildwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HWRFWTF model is lol @ 108hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:42 PM, H2O said: HWRFWTF model is lol @ 108hr hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Fun times: EDIT: Ian beat me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LOL WTFHWRF loves the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Some of the individual GFS ensemble members have landfall in SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:42 PM, H2O said: HWRFWTF model is lol @ 108hr 3 models I've never looked at before support it. One of them is a mouth of the bay/left turn at the potomac/14st bridge landfall. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 looking at the radar, it actually looks like we may get a decent soaker today. of course, knock on wood. i've been slacking on this joaquin situation. i guess i need to get up to speed on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This run of the Euro is the hugest since Ji's last meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:19 PM, smokeybandit said: Yeah no thanks on that kind of rain. Even half as much would be pushing it for that widespread of coverage. We did that for Irene and Sandy. I don't remember that being a big problem. We can handle 6-8"+ over 24 hrs, it is when it goes crazy in a short period (TS Lee, June 2006) is when there are bigger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:52 PM, Ian said: This run of the Euro is the hugest since Ji's last meltdown. the most important September run since last september Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:52 PM, 87storms said: looking at the radar, it actually looks like we may get a decent soaker today. of course, knock on wood. i've been slacking on this joaquin situation. i guess i need to get up to speed on this. The HRRR is aggressive for later today. Big swath of 4"+ in VA west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:50 PM, Bob Chill said: 3 models I've never looked at before support it. One of them is a mouth of the bay/left turn at the potomac/14st bridge landfall. heh boom.JPG you just used the yoda law of posting. it says: Thou must find the most obscure model to support thy most weenie outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.