dailylurker Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This is a place to discuss the mid week and possible weekend event.Looks like a couple inches of rain possible in the DC area Tuesday night. Next weekend looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Gfs rolling. Rain from the weekend event out along the jersey shore and into NYC up to lake champlain. Lots of rain.l for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't care all that much about the frontal stuff. I want a tropical (or post tropical) deluge.I feel the same way. These little. 25" events aren't putting a dent in this drought. I want to see fun weather (wind, rain, mass distruction). TWC is really hyping the weekend thing for the NE. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tuesday stuff goes west and the tropical stuff goes north. We get a shower from the front lol. Let's hope that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 18z GFS Ensembles trended wetter with both storms. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I feel the same way. These little. 25" events aren't putting a dent in this drought. I want to see fun weather (wind, rain, mass distruction). TWC is really hyping the weekend thing for the NE. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tuesday stuff goes west and the tropical stuff goes north. We get a shower from the front lol. Let's hope that's not the case.Works for me, I'll be in OCMD, if I can get a dry Saturday night I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter. Um, EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TBH- I'm pretty interested in the setup/evolution. Timing is critical but it's not like we're 10 days out here. Euro and gfs close off h5 in the TN valley general area. This is key. A progressive trough won't let anything offshore join the party for our region. If in fact h5 does close off and the block to the north does its job then things can get really interesting. Euro was obviously the far extreme scenario but something more realistic could still be plenty fun from a met perspective. Euro ens were quite wet. A couple inches of rain with 30mph gusts would make all of our days if things pull together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We've seen the shear in the tropics linger with each cyclone this year and play havoc with the numerical models, both foreign and domestic. There's no reason to believe it will be different with TD #11 and the HWRF is silly to begin with which is the only model that paints anything remotely interesting. This looks like another Irene which, as we all know, was a dead ratter. Power out for 3-4 days with winds higher than Sandy. Did it suck in the DC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Who is staying up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Who is staying up for the euro? Me, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hmmm HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC403 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-291015-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-403 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAYSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLETUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING FORSOME AREAS.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOMETROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...PRONOUNCED WAH-KEEN...LATER TODAY. THESTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. THE DETAILS OF HOW SIGNIFICANTLY...AND EVENIF...THAT STORM WILL IMPACT US WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE WEEKPROGRESSES. IF IT DOES IMPACT US...A PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN FRIDAYTHROUGH SUNDAY IS MOST LIKELY. BE AWARE THAT TROPICAL STORMIMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 I saw the visible satellite image from earlier. I hadn't payed much attention to it. I was actually kinda surprised how organized it look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023804.shtml?5day#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Getting interesting. Let's see if it survives the shear tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll be the weenie to do it... but hrs 81-84 on the 00z NAM have a very heavy rain band moving W/WNW into the DC area from the E/SE http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023804.shtml?5day#contents We're in the cone! https://www.youtube.com/embed/kXvTn6-Z6Cw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 These were all high end storms for the Mid-Atlantic but still gives you a sense of the pattern needed to get a hurricane into the region With Sandy Without Sandy 12z Euro at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 One interesting thing is there's definitely a n/s axis to most mid-atlantic hurricane hits that looks similar to the track of NHC if it was to be shifted west to go thru like Myrtle/Hat.. which is possible in the end I think here.. though I have a hard time seeing how the storm will be mega intense other than ssts are quite warm if it manages to develop well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00z RGEM 24 hr QPF over 2" at DCA and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice posts Ian. I'm pretty intrigued because there is more than a gutshot chance at having the upper level trough close off at the right time to back steering flow east enough to tuck the storm into our region without first coming inland over NC. Obviously not high prob or likely but having the chance hanging out there is fun for sure. Cat 3 right into the mouth of the bay...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 yeah, tomorrow evening into the night is such a tricky call. RGEM is obviously wet, GFS has the heaviest to our north but still gets some decent rain into the local area, NAM is fairly dry, SREF is wet, and NAM nest implies a few heavy convective swaths. Consensus seems to argue for decent convection in the area during that time, especially for areas north of Rt 50. what *may* be happening with the NAM to cause the drier solution is that the convective scheme triggers too early Tuesday (a common bias) and messes things up for later in the day. 00z RGEM 24 hr QPF over 2" at DCA and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's like a Miller B tropical system. Would be funny if we get almost no rain. To be honest I just want to see the EC can still do weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If current trends hold, the rain axis will likely shift west. The GFS ensemble/Euro combo is tough to beat at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 brutal indeed. looking at 500 mb, the 00z GFS is still more progressive with the big trough, and there is no way for Joaquin to get pulled back into the coast. The 00z NAM at f84 is much further west, and Joaquin seems to be starting to move back to the northwest, and a big swath of rain is arriving here from the east. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the GGEM is about to do something silly. What else is new. It looks to get what's left of Ida involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 brutal indeed. looking at 500 mb, the 00z GFS is still more progressive with the big trough, and there is no way for Joaquin to get pulled back into the coast. The 00z NAM at f84 is much further west, and Joaquin seems to be starting to move back to the northwest, and a big swath of rain is arriving here from the east. the gfs has been exhibiting a weak and north bias all season from what I understand. it does seem to be moving left slowly. I think the short term trend with the low will probably end up west. i just don't know if this is the right season to get it big enough to be more than a big rain maker.. which would be fine at this juncture of course. plus that trough means business so it's not likely to be fully tropical.. very few are by this latitude I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the GGEM is about to do something silly. What else is new. It looks to get what's left of Ida involved? lol yeah pulls Ida in and eventually clips cape cod after trying to head toward northern mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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