yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What a signal on the h7 maps at 144... is that a huge CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Let's lock this one in, shall we? You have QPF for Raleigh, RIC, DC, BWI, PHL, NYC? Inland areas would be nice too...western extend? I know its a lot, but I'm trying to get info for a lot of people and cut down on the how much posts Someone said as far inland as Pitt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IAD 1.25" DCA 1.32" BWI 1.38" RIC 1.46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How the models have this much spread, not only with low placement features but timing as well, is beyond me. GFS is almost nothing for the SE and a full day faster almost, Euro is once in a lifetime Christmas miracle. I dont know what to believe. Probably somewhere in the middle .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Let's lock this one in, shall we? You have QPF for Raleigh, RIC, DC, BWI, PHL, NYC? Inland areas would be nice too...western extend? I know its a lot, but I'm trying to get info for a lot of people and cut down on the how much posts Per Tombo Randy the precip now reaches back to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 PHL-1.48" NYC-1.37" BOS-1.93" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyS Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 From: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html ...TROUGH SPLITTING INTO CALIFORNIA AT THE START OF DAY 2... PREFERENCE: NAM/ECMWF BEGINNING THU EVENING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THE NAM IS TRENDING SLOWER THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE SRN BRANCH SHRTWV. SIMILAR TO THE NAM...THE GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THE TREND BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THIS TREND PUTS THE GFS INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THRU THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON THU...HOWEVER BY FRI MORNING THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/LEAST AMPLIFIED/MOST PHASED OF THE TRIO. THE UKMET IS LINE WITH THE SLOWER CAMP THRU 12Z/24...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE TOO SLOW...BECOMING AN OUTLIER MOVING INTO THE MED RANGE PERIOD. THE CMC GLOBAL HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND REMAINS ONE OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE NAM/GFS AND SUPPORT FROM THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...WILL RECOMMEND THE SLOWER CAMP...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE UKMET AT 00Z/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 STAFF CAN WE POST THIS OR NOT QPF TOTALS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 RDU-1.66" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IAD 1.25" DCA 1.32" BWI 1.38" RIC 1.46" Thanks for this....any thoughts on ratios? 15:1 seems likely for most of I95 from the look of it....no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 STORM AT S EA... how that Ukie idea looking now ... ? the shift west at 12 is Noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, compared the 12Z NAM, GFS, CMC, Ukie, Euro at 84 hours. The NAM and Euro at 5h were nearly identical in their solution handling the S/W. Both almost exact position and closed 564 low over south central OK and north central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 this is not xmas anymore right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 968 MB 100 MILES SE OF ACY 144 HRS Just for a comparison, Hurricane Gloria was 28.57 inches when it made landfall on Long Island. 28.57 = 967. Now imagine hurricane gloria making landfall on long island but instead of rain... it's snow. If the EURO verifies, that's what we're facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 IAD 1.25" DCA 1.32" BWI 1.38" RIC 1.46" ***** BETWEEN RIC AND SBY AMOUNTS ARE 2..00... *** LOWRR MD EASTERN SHORE WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ONLY SNOW QPF IS BEING POSTED CLT-1.12" ROA-.60: CHO-1.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 with that CCB/CH depicted on this run of the EURO, this would be a HUGE hit for us folks in Western Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ***** BETWEEN RIC AND SBY AMOUNTS ARE 2..00... *** LOWRR MD EASTERN SHORE WOW SBY-1.75" DOV-1.73" ILG-1.36" MDT-1.15" ABE-1.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ***** BETWEEN RIC AND SBY AMOUNTS ARE 2..00... *** LOWRR MD EASTERN SHORE WOW Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 All the HECS that i have seen have had a few r uns with the euro showing a big storm and GFS shows out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 TTN-1.42" this one's for HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snow arrival times for those who asked these are around times ATL sat late am wint. salem raleigh sat eve.m ric roa lyh rocky mount christmas night late pm DC to del late am sunday' nyc phily aft sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WORCESTER THE WINNER-2.24" you go Will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snow arrival times for those who asked these are around times ATL sat late am wint. salem raleigh sat eve.m ric roa lyh rocky mount christmas night late pm DC to del late am sunday' nyc phily aft sunday The Great Boxing Day Storm of 2010? The Euro was pretty much ideal in every way except timing, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows. I think the general theme today was to slow and amp the southern stream vs prev runs, the EC ens prolly does the same, altho likely not to the magnitude of the op. I also thought the other general theme was for a weaker northern stream piece which I am unsure about given amp of BOI ridge. I do like that of the four major models, 3 show some form of phase and bomb (details TBD) while the GFS had shown that prev and now it backed off. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WORCESTER THE WINNER-2.24" you go Will! wait a minute ORH gets pretty warm on the surface I'm sorry to say up to +3.1C for a time Providence gets a ton of qpf but does definitely turn to rain for at least 1/2 of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snow arrival times for those who asked these are around times ATL sat late am wint. salem raleigh sat eve.m ric roa lyh rocky mount christmas night late pm DC to del late am sunday' nyc phily aft sunday Wow...Sunday afternoon for NYC....that's a good 18 hours later than I had originally heard...slowing down for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think the general theme today was to slow and amp the southern stream vs prev runs, the EC ens prolly does the same, altho likely not to the magnitude of the op. I also thought the other general theme was for a weaker northern stream piece which I am unsure about given amp of BOI ridge. I do like that of the four major models, 3 show some form of phase and bomb (details TBD) while the GFS had shown that prev and now it backed off. Fun times. I like the ridge being so strong upstream which argues for amplification but the timing of any phasing is critical. The Gem would not be that great for dc but would be great to the north though it's low does seem a little east of where I'd expect it from the 500h pattern. I haven;t seen the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows. wes , it seems to me the euor at 12z is kind of close to the 0z euro ensemble mean at 120 and 144 ... JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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