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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/10


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Let's lock this one in, shall we?

You have QPF for Raleigh, RIC, DC, BWI, PHL, NYC?

Inland areas would be nice too...western extend?

I know its a lot, but I'm trying to get info for a lot of people and cut down on the how much posts

Per Tombo Randy the precip now reaches back to Pittsburgh and Buffalo.

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From: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

...TROUGH SPLITTING INTO CALIFORNIA AT THE START OF DAY 2...

PREFERENCE: NAM/ECMWF

BEGINNING THU EVENING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND CONTINUING INTO

FRI MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THE NAM IS TRENDING SLOWER

THAN ITS 00Z RUN WITH THE SRN BRANCH SHRTWV.

SIMILAR TO THE NAM...THE GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER ACROSS THE SRN

ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THE TREND BECOMES LESS

PRONOUNCED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID/LWR MS VLY. THIS

TREND PUTS THE GFS INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THRU

THE SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON

THU...HOWEVER BY FRI MORNING THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/LEAST

AMPLIFIED/MOST PHASED OF THE TRIO. THE UKMET IS LINE WITH THE

SLOWER CAMP THRU 12Z/24...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY BE TOO

SLOW...BECOMING AN OUTLIER MOVING INTO THE MED RANGE PERIOD. THE

CMC GLOBAL HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS

RUN AND REMAINS ONE OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLNS. THE ECMWF HAS

TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE HAS

REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THE NAM.

GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE NAM/GFS AND SUPPORT FROM THE

NAM/UKMET/ECMWF...WILL RECOMMEND THE SLOWER CAMP...BUT NOT AS SLOW

AS THE UKMET AT 00Z/25.

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FWIW, compared the 12Z NAM, GFS, CMC, Ukie, Euro at 84 hours. The NAM and Euro at 5h were nearly identical in their solution handling the S/W. Both almost exact position and closed 564 low over south central OK and north central TX.

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The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows.

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The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows.

I think the general theme today was to slow and amp the southern stream vs prev runs, the EC ens prolly does the same, altho likely not to the magnitude of the op. I also thought the other general theme was for a weaker northern stream piece which I am unsure about given amp of BOI ridge. I do like that of the four major models, 3 show some form of phase and bomb (details TBD) while the GFS had shown that prev and now it backed off. Fun times.

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snow arrival times for those who asked

these are around times

ATL sat late am

wint. salem raleigh sat eve.m

ric roa lyh rocky mount christmas night late pm

DC to del late am sunday'

nyc phily aft sunday

Wow...Sunday afternoon for NYC....that's a good 18 hours later than I had originally heard...slowing down for sure...

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I think the general theme today was to slow and amp the southern stream vs prev runs, the EC ens prolly does the same, altho likely not to the magnitude of the op. I also thought the other general theme was for a weaker northern stream piece which I am unsure about given amp of BOI ridge. I do like that of the four major models, 3 show some form of phase and bomb (details TBD) while the GFS had shown that prev and now it backed off. Fun times.

I like the ridge being so strong upstream which argues for amplification but the timing of any phasing is critical. The Gem would not be that great for dc but would be great to the north though it's low does seem a little east of where I'd expect it from the 500h pattern. I haven;t seen the ukmet.

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Guest someguy

The euro could of course be correct but.....at times it has a tendency to be sow bringing systems out of the southwest. Speed the southern stream system up and you get a much different look and don't bring the low north as fast and the odds are the low would track farther out to sea. The euro is a better model but it's still the outlier. I'll be interested to see what its ensemble mean shows.

wes

, it seems to me the euor at 12z is kind of close to the 0z euro ensemble mean at 120 and 144 ...

JMHO

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