Storm At Sea Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this may be a PHL to ME storm. It seems more and more like a classic Miller B. With regards to GFS, one has to expect variability. We almost never seen run to run consensus leading up to a major event. All in all, like I noted last evening, I think this is a repeat of the Dec. 2000 MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 120 looks to have light precipitation for most of the mid atlantic but 144 shows a bomb in the NE. We can't see the precip for 120-132, but I'd bet it's not that impressive for the mid-atlantic. Bombing is probably north of Philly. Post 134 of this thread, previous page, shows precip for 12 hrs ending H132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So the concensus we are getting from many in this thread is that the threat for DC/PHL is lessening slightly as the phase is trending to happening later?? NYC-BOS special?? on the GGEM it looks better for places north of Philly. The 12z GFS op gives basically gives nothing to anyone. still a long way to go. See what the ensembles and Euro has to say now, considering it was pretty close to the GGEM at 0z when it looked like a major hit for the MA to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Post 134 of this thread, previous page, shows precip for 12 hrs ending H132. RIght, the color maps weren't out yet when I posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 looks like a nice hit for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW HM's New Year's storm is still on the GFS....still warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 one factor I think people are overlooking is the strength of the pacific jet and the asian vortex the placement o the asian vortex is allowing a 130 KT jet to undercut our west coast ridge and shear the crap out the southern branch shortwave. we need a more meridional allignment of the jet in the WPAC for this thing to have a chance. if the asian vortex is displaced south or west then we end up with a smoother ridge in the WPAC and a more neutrually tilted GOA trough. I can see how HM's short wavelengths are playing in our favor but with the negatively tilted GOA trough, all bets are off IMO. The evolution of the Asian vortex over the next 48 hours to me is going to be very key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS ens are way out to sea as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this may be a PHL to ME storm. It seems more and more like a classic Miller B. With regards to GFS, one has to expect variability. We almost never seen run to run consensus leading up to a major event. All in all, like I noted last evening, I think this is a repeat of the Dec. 2000 MECS. i mentioned that yesterday... the Dec 31 2000 storm? coastal DE got a few inches but outside of that it was a miss for the MA. it was a Philly N and E storm with a very sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ya know that track is good for central and eastern va GFS ens are way out to sea as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this may be a PHL to ME storm. It seems more and more like a classic Miller B. With regards to GFS, one has to expect variability. We almost never seen run to run consensus leading up to a major event. All in all, like I noted last evening, I think this is a repeat of the Dec. 2000 MECS. a miller B that features a s/w in the STJ and a surfac e and 850 Low over SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ya know that track is good for central and eastern va Almost every model is showing 2- 6" minimum for our area. At least we know a miss is still a hit down this way. North of Baltimore is all or nothing it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 a miller B that features a s/w in the STJ and a surfac e and 850 Low over SC? Yeah, I don't get the argument that this is a Miller B... It might be a late phaser, which is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 ya know that track is good for central and eastern va looks like 2 camps maybe...suppressed which would be a decent hit for NE NC, eastern VA, and maybe the eastern shore. or a late phaser which gives a light or moderate snow to coastal MA and a major hit for SNE. the extremes on either end of that are a total miss OTS and the bomb from last nights 0z runs....interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, I don't get the argument that this is a Miller B... It might be a late phaser, which is different. it redevelops off the carolina coast tho.. it seems like a miller b with perhaps everything displaced a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM takes the little PV nowhere (in extreme N. Canada) but the GFS drops it into our trough....huge implications wrt aplification ahead of our system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it redevelops off the carolina coast tho.. it seems like a miller b with perhaps everything displaced a bit south It jumps I guess, but there is a low on most models skirting around down south, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It jumps I guess, but there is a low on most models skirting around down south, right? originally there is an eastward moving overruning event that seems to want to transfer to the SE. the euro maybe has implied more miller a look here and there but i think the storm will end up being a jumper mor likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I think this may be a PHL to ME storm. It seems more and more like a classic Miller B. With regards to GFS, one has to expect variability. We almost never seen run to run consensus leading up to a major event. All in all, like I noted last evening, I think this is a repeat of the Dec. 2000 MECS. Ah, finally a voice of reason among mets. GFS is not as bad as ppl make it out to be, but it merely has its biases. Its a computer modeling system, therefore is prone to variability. This is simple statistics and computer science stuff. I personally think this is closer to Feb 2010 or a Jan 1996 type of event, but I am certainly not talking about snowfall amounts, I mean track and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 it redevelops off the carolina coast tho.. it seems like a miller b with perhaps everything displaced a bit south I personally think it's a hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS ens are way out to sea as well Not much spread either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I personally think it's a hybrid. Was waiting for this Nick. It is in my book as well. Hybrid Miller A/B. Strong southern stream s/w that gets captured by the northern stream riding up and over the western ridge. My intuition is telling me the 12z GFS is overplaying the northern stream and underplaying the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I personally think it's a hybrid. if that stops the arguing about it i'll go with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not much spread either... This is actually a good thing in my opinion. This last storm saw a large spread right up to within 48h and wreaked havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not much spread either... A big positive IMO, that all 12 are showing a storm at that time range near the same spot. Should be much increased confidence of a strorm. Now 120 hours to fine-tune things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was waiting for this Nick. It is in my book as well. Hybrid Miller A/B. Strong southern stream s/w that gets captured by the northern stream riding up and over the western ridge. My intuition is telling me the 12z GFS is overplaying the northern stream and underplaying the southern stream. Unless things have changed drastically, that's a known bias. [/weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Unless things have changed drastically, that's a known bias. [/weenie] Exactly the point I am trying to get across and I believe many here are trying to as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Euro has initialized with Tombo in the NY/PHI thread (of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 through 42, the s/w is a little weaker compared to 0z last night the ridging out ahead of the system is stornger besides the slightly weaker s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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