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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/10


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Guest someguy

And your immediate dismissal and trashing of every gfs run qualifies as insight?

DTK I am sorry but that is NOT what I am doing

not even close.

I dont think I am trashing it at all.

When the GFS is showing what could be described as " what I WANT to see" or what I do not wnat to se... I Just dont give it a lot of weight

past 72/84 hrs on east coast winter storms. I can cite Numerous examples of why I have this perspective

THis a very common perspective in the energy and ag met field. ( i dont know if you are aware of this attitide/ Mindset or not)

this did not start with the GFS runs today or yesterday or last week

It has always been my view for 10 + years

all I am doing is stating that these sort of swings are common with the GFS... I dont think anyone would disagree with that idea.

so why rely on it?

The GFS ensemble Mean I LIKE a lot

have said so many times... and refer to it many times.

I dont know how you could say I am trashing the GFS yet like the GFS ensemble mean

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Guest someguy

2 runs were ****....one was over the benchmark...the next one was inside the benchmark...

the Euro is the best model...no one disputes it...but it has it temporary hickups just like the others.

Good.

again I think this 12z GFS run is " off".

IMO it has more hiccups than other models ( the euro)

I am not sure why stating that I dont rely on it past 84 hrs for east coast events is so " contoversial".

I am not trying to upset anyone

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Thanks Messenger. It must have been a wild night out on the Cape last night. The radar displays were quite impressive.

Was a great 90 minutes of blizzard conditions. Made the night, week, Christmas and maybe the winter. The way it's been lately got to enjoy what we have!

I think we all get worked up with these storms and fail to see the pattern which is at this range it's like Plinko on the price is right. The chances of getting the big prize/blizzard relies on getting through a series of hurdles. The further out we are the more of them there are and once we get too far off center the entire solution scheme changes. Then there's situations like last night where even though we got pretty far to the right we were able to pull it back.

What this run and probably the GGEM tells us is there is still a wide range of solutions from OTS/scrape/miss to a big hit, but that just maybe the entire cone is shifting east some. The GGEM is along the lines of the GFS but still pulls it way in tight.

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did u not see the post above?

such swings are NOT a sign of the model si handling this well

and the 12z gfs idea has No other Model support

tell ya what steve

go find another Model or ensemble mean that take the Low e of hatteras

UKIE/KMA are similar no?

Hope I'm wrong.

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Was a great 90 minutes of blizzard conditions. Made the night, week, Christmas and maybe the winter. The way it's been lately got to enjoy what we have!

I think we all get worked up with these storms and fail to see the pattern which is at this range it's like Plinko on the price is right. The chances of getting the big prize/blizzard relies on getting through a series of hurdles. The further out we are the more of them there are and once we get too far off center the entire solution scheme changes. Then there's situations like last night where even though we got pretty far to the right we were able to pull it back.

What this run and probably the GGEM tells us is there is still a wide range of solutions from OTS/scrape/miss to a big hit, but that just maybe the entire cone is shifting east some. The GGEM is along the lines of the GFS but still pulls it way in tight.

I strongly agree, Messenger. I'll certainly take what I get. Not every winter is going to be a feast like last winter and some of the previous great ones. Still a lot of possible solutions exist.

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Looks to me the GGEM skips DC to PHL and nails NYC to SNE...

I'm guessing a lot of people in your area are going to be discouraged but just look at the 500 mb evolution of the storm on the GGEM...I'd be shocked if DC doesn't cash in with a map that looks like this

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

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Guest someguy

GGEM is not out to sea but may not be good for those south of NYC

HR 120 deep H5 low in Virginia but the trough is neutrally tilted, so the low escapes just east before being captured around hour 132 where there's a 978 low south of Rhode Island

More appallingly bad NE I-95 bias

ggem is BIG for eastern VA and lower MD eastern shore

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Guest someguy

So the concensus we are getting from many in this thread is that the threat for DC/PHL is lessening slightly as the phase is trending to happening later??

NYC-BOS special??

so you went from out to sea with the Uklie to seeing 1 model as a consensus?

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