Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And your immediate dismissal and trashing of every gfs run qualifies as insight? DTK I am sorry but that is NOT what I am doing not even close. I dont think I am trashing it at all. When the GFS is showing what could be described as " what I WANT to see" or what I do not wnat to se... I Just dont give it a lot of weight past 72/84 hrs on east coast winter storms. I can cite Numerous examples of why I have this perspective THis a very common perspective in the energy and ag met field. ( i dont know if you are aware of this attitide/ Mindset or not) this did not start with the GFS runs today or yesterday or last week It has always been my view for 10 + years all I am doing is stating that these sort of swings are common with the GFS... I dont think anyone would disagree with that idea. so why rely on it? The GFS ensemble Mean I LIKE a lot have said so many times... and refer to it many times. I dont know how you could say I am trashing the GFS yet like the GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In between all the noise your comments are appreciated. Couldn't have said it better myself! Thanks Messenger. It must have been a wild night out on the Cape last night. The radar displays were quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 2 runs were ****....one was over the benchmark...the next one was inside the benchmark... the Euro is the best model...no one disputes it...but it has it temporary hickups just like the others. Good. again I think this 12z GFS run is " off". IMO it has more hiccups than other models ( the euro) I am not sure why stating that I dont rely on it past 84 hrs for east coast events is so " contoversial". I am not trying to upset anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GGEM is much deeper at 108 hours, the 500mb compared to the 12z GFS is not even close, will it go negative in time, that is another question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 gem hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks Messenger. It must have been a wild night out on the Cape last night. The radar displays were quite impressive. Was a great 90 minutes of blizzard conditions. Made the night, week, Christmas and maybe the winter. The way it's been lately got to enjoy what we have! I think we all get worked up with these storms and fail to see the pattern which is at this range it's like Plinko on the price is right. The chances of getting the big prize/blizzard relies on getting through a series of hurdles. The further out we are the more of them there are and once we get too far off center the entire solution scheme changes. Then there's situations like last night where even though we got pretty far to the right we were able to pull it back. What this run and probably the GGEM tells us is there is still a wide range of solutions from OTS/scrape/miss to a big hit, but that just maybe the entire cone is shifting east some. The GGEM is along the lines of the GFS but still pulls it way in tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ugh, GGEM OTS at 144HR... is the pv or low over newfoundland leaving causing the out to sea result now??Yet didn'tDT said he couldn't believe two big low pressure systems could exist so close together. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ugh, GGEM OTS at 144HR... You sure you have right time/date? Mine is only out to 108 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What happens on the GGEM between 108 and 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ggem is anything but out to sea whoever just said that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Phineas, its not OTS for everyone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You sure you have right time/date? Mine is only out to 108 hours... I had the wrong map, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is pretty for a lot of areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What happens on the GGEM between 108 and 144? I've love to know because at 144 it looks like its tucked up right under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 did u not see the post above? such swings are NOT a sign of the model si handling this well and the 12z gfs idea has No other Model support tell ya what steve go find another Model or ensemble mean that take the Low e of hatteras UKIE/KMA are similar no? Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Phineas, its not OTS for everyone.... is the ggem a hit also, not necessarily a big one, but a hit?? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS/GGEM 500mb are WORLDS apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 is the gem like the euro??Make the gfs look out to lunch?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks to me the GGEM skips DC to PHL and nails NYC to SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is not out to sea but may not be good for those south of NYC HR 120 deep H5 low in Virginia but the trough is neutrally tilted, so the low escapes just east before being captured around hour 132 where there's a 978 low south of Rhode Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At 120+ hours out Id take the GGEM solution, it shows me that the robust solution is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS/GGEM 500mb are WORLDS apart. The GGEM is very tough to read.......does the low stand inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 UKie at 72 hours, looks very euro-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 120 looks to have light precipitation for most of the mid atlantic but 144 shows a bomb in the NE. We can't see the precip for 120-132, but I'd bet it's not that impressive for the mid-atlantic. Bombing is probably north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Was a great 90 minutes of blizzard conditions. Made the night, week, Christmas and maybe the winter. The way it's been lately got to enjoy what we have! I think we all get worked up with these storms and fail to see the pattern which is at this range it's like Plinko on the price is right. The chances of getting the big prize/blizzard relies on getting through a series of hurdles. The further out we are the more of them there are and once we get too far off center the entire solution scheme changes. Then there's situations like last night where even though we got pretty far to the right we were able to pull it back. What this run and probably the GGEM tells us is there is still a wide range of solutions from OTS/scrape/miss to a big hit, but that just maybe the entire cone is shifting east some. The GGEM is along the lines of the GFS but still pulls it way in tight. I strongly agree, Messenger. I'll certainly take what I get. Not every winter is going to be a feast like last winter and some of the previous great ones. Still a lot of possible solutions exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks to me the GGEM skips DC to PHL and nails NYC to SNE... I'm guessing a lot of people in your area are going to be discouraged but just look at the 500 mb evolution of the storm on the GGEM...I'd be shocked if DC doesn't cash in with a map that looks like this http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GGEM is not out to sea but may not be good for those south of NYC HR 120 deep H5 low in Virginia but the trough is neutrally tilted, so the low escapes just east before being captured around hour 132 where there's a 978 low south of Rhode Island More appallingly bad NE I-95 bias ggem is BIG for eastern VA and lower MD eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So the concensus we are getting from many in this thread is that the threat for DC/PHL is lessening slightly as the phase is trending to happening later?? NYC-BOS special?? so you went from out to sea with the Uklie to seeing 1 model as a consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So the concensus we are getting from many in this thread is that the threat for DC/PHL is lessening slightly as the phase is trending to happening later?? NYC-BOS special?? For the GGEM, yes .....for the GFS, screw everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Canadian looks pretty modest for the southern MA if not the entire MA but I'll sign for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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