Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I hope you're joking about the NOGAPS. I bet if most of the weenies didn't post here, the NOGAPS would never even be mentioned! NO he isnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 slight change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoRyz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NO he isnt If he isn't, then that's sad! He was being facetious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking at the H5 setup...the low is right where it is expected to be...under the best PVA and differential TA. This tends to get thrown around a lot, but models are not subjective, there is a physical relationship between the surface and the mid-level forcing. One is not misplaced from the other for random reasons.... This is not to say that the GFS depiction of the overall evolution of the system is correct.... Is it just me or does H5 not match up with the surface depiction at all hr 114? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is the 12Z GFS wrong? Folks are real quick to just toss it's solution even though it has some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is the 12Z GFS wrong? Folks are real quick to just toss it's solution even though it has some support. From what I'm reading the Upper level maps aren't really tying into the surface depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is the 12Z GFS wrong? Folks are real quick to just toss it's solution even though it has some support. a) I think it has been explained very well here. What support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking at the H5 setup...the low is right where it is expected to be...under the best PVA and differential TA. This tends to get thrown around a lot, but models are not subjective, there is a physical relationship between the surface and the mid-level forcing. One is not misplaced from the other for random reasons.... This. People throw this stuff around all the time to rationalize throwing out a forecast they don't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is the 12Z GFS wrong? Folks are real quick to just toss it's solution even though it has some support. Lol.. Support from what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why is the 12Z GFS wrong? Folks are real quick to just toss it's solution even though it has some support. did u not see the post above? such swings are NOT a sign of the model si handling this well and the 12z gfs idea has No other Model support tell ya what steve go find another Model or ensemble mean that take the Low e of hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 did u not see the post above? such swings are NOT a sign of the model doing well? and the Model has No other Model support tell ya what steve go find another Model or ensemble mean that take the Low se of hatteras He won't tell you. He's been doing this all day. He says something with no basis in reality, then doesn't back it up. Maybe he'll pull out the NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That model has been doing GREAT lately! well it does support the GFS now...and what model has done well lately? the Euro surely has had its run to run consistency issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking at the H5 setup...the low is right where it is expected to be...under the best PVA and differential TA. This tends to get thrown around a lot, but models are not subjective, there is a physical relationship between the surface and the mid-level forcing. One is not misplaced from the other for random reasons.... This is not to say that the GFS depiction of the overall evolution of the system is correct.... The best PVA at hr 114, to me, looks like it is shooting over Long Island and into southern NE. I was just bringing it up on my initial glance, because I did look at H5 before the surface, and it looked pretty good to me before I saw the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I see what you're saying...but looping through the H5 maps, just following the main lobe of vorticity and it is much easier to see why the model surface depiction shows what it does. let's just hope the GFS is wrong The best PVA at hr 114, to me, looks like it is shooting over Long Island and into southern NE. I was just bringing it up on my initial glance, because I did look at H5 before the surface, and it looked pretty good to me before I saw the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Out of curiosity, which storms have made it a 4 or a 5 on this scale? http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php#rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z ukie vs 12z gfs hr 72 ukie lines gfs color ukie looks dead on with the 0z euro with the S/W placement and closed off ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 and the euro had a 970mb inside the benchmark 96 hours ahead of the 19th event. I'm throwing it out...it's awful!11 NOT the same thing and you know better well I hope you do the several Runs before that 1 Glitch ruin of the 0z Euro showed consistently NO storm then yes it had it for that 1 run then took it away again the point is consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the euro has gone from Inland to BIG hit to out to sea? when ? can you show me that map? NO? didnt think so and what about nthe euro ensemble mean? DT- how about last weeks event(non event) and the midwest storm before that. Can you totally dismiss the GFS or the Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOT the same thing and you know better well I hope you do the several Runs before that 1 Glitch ruin of the 0z Euro showed consistently NO storm then yes it had it for that 1 run then took it away again the point is consistency 2 runs were ****....one was over the benchmark...the next one was inside the benchmark... the Euro is the best model...no one disputes it...but it has it temporary hickups just like the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Or maybe the GFS is just being too far SE like it usually is at this range? If GGEM and Euro stay wound-up, GFS is pretty irrelevant, IMO. I've always understood, that for a major snowstorm, you WANT the GFS to be suppressed to the south and east 4-5 days out. I don't remember why, but this usually means a good sign for anyone who wants snow in the I-95 cities. The 12z EURO will definitely be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, to add to the controversy, my thoughts are that a moderate event remains possible/likely for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England states. What is somewhat worrisome is the recent trend among the GFS ensembles to present a broader and broader turn to the north. If that trend has merit, it would not be surprising to see the 12z ECMWF and 12z ECMWF ensemble mean shift eastward. IMO, as the 12z ensemble suite hasn't come out, my best guess is that a track somewhere between the 0z ECMWF ensemble mean and 0z/6z GFS ensemble means is probably a reasonable idea at this time. The operational 12z GFS is east of that idea. While I don't believe that is the most likely outcome at this time, I don't believe it can be dismissed out of hand given the abnormally high level of uncertainty that is often present during moderate/strong La Niña events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NO he isnt Dave, you know better than that. I don't even look at the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z ukie vs 12z gfs hr 72 ukie color gfs lines ukie looks dead on with the 0z euro with the S/W placement and closed off ' Do you mean the UKMET is the lines and the GFS the color? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why should this run not be trashed? (Crickets?) I would prefer to wait for the rest of the 12z guidance before doing that (or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Do you mean the UKMET is the lines and the GFS the color? sorry yes i will fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 not looking as great as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 well it does support the GFS now...and what model has done well lately? the Euro surely has had its run to run consistency issues. Didn't the GFS just show a huge snowstorm for I-95 up until 24 hours out? No one believed it because the Euro was saying OTS. Sorry, but with the way the GFS (Good For ... ) has been peforming lately, I just don't buy any of what it's selling to me unless we're 24 hours removed from the event. Now if the Euro catches onto what the GFS is saying, then we're in trouble and there would be mass weenie suicides all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I would prefer to wait for the rest of the 12z guidance before doing that (or not). As far as I can tell, this is in great part all about timing. Miss the opportunity to phase, and you're OTS. Euro thinks that timing has to be later for a coastal storm to form; GFS thinks it has to be earlier. Therefore, slower GFS run = OTS. I still think the main moving part in this is the current Atlantic low, which GFS, NAM and Euro all play differently in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 alright lets take the model issues or non issues to here we need a blizzard asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can we stop with the model verification nonsense and start talking about the actual 12z GFS and GEM? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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