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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/10


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This can be taken two different ways. Either the NAM is considered good because of its agreement with the ECMWF, or since it tends to have a strong/slow bias at this time range, it could imply the ECMWF is too strong/slow. =)

DR

The GFS has been slowing down the SW energy with time also...gradually coming into better agreement with the ECMWF.

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Guest someguy

sorry ... first I tyuped that post badly and did not make myself clear

and I am NOT using that small maps

the 0z euro ensemble eman is far MORE impressive if you use the smaller images

Huh?

Here are the 120hr and 144hr maps I saw:

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA120.gif

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA144.gif

How does that equate to this:

010718.png

010812.png

Or, rather, how does a 993mb mean low 200mi east of ACY get us to NESIS 5? NESIS 4? Yeah, i guess BDL to BOS could get clobbered with the ECE's forecast. I'm not sure NJ through NYC would do all that great, though.

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Huh?

Here are the 120hr and 144hr maps I saw:

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA120.gif

00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA144.gif

How does that equate to this:

010718.png

010812.png

Or, rather, how does a 993mb mean low 200mi east of ACY get us to NESIS 5? NESIS 4? Yeah, i guess BDL to BOS could get clobbered with the ECE's forecast. I'm not sure NJ through NYC would do all that great, though.

I agree, ECMWF ENS mean is nowhere near its OP model, but it's still quite a significant signal nonetheless. The 6z GFS actually trended towards the OP ECMWF solution as well in its overall evolution of the trough complex and associated phasing of the entire PV motherlode that drops in from NE Canada. But in the actual literal details of the model's output, it appears to be worse (6z GFS I Mean). I'm just extremely intrigued by the OP ECMWF and how close it is to theoretical banterings ppl have had about a "triple phase" (I don't see an AJ present here personally) or "massive conglomeration of the trough complex over the eastern U.S." ala 1996. It really is freaky how much the OP ECMWF looks just like that beloved event.

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Western ridge looks really impressive on this run.. Most of hte models we've seen to this point, really show that nicely.. Now, we have to see how much digging takes place in the East.

By the way, the MJO is showing a weak wave getting into phase 7.. Just thought I pass that along..

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Guest someguy

waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities

at 114 zooming due east

this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events

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Western ridge looks really impressive on this run.. Most of hte models we've seen to this point, really show that nicely.. Now, we have to see how much digging takes place in the East.

By the way, the MJO is showing a weak wave getting into phase 7.. Just thought I pass that along..

what does the stage of the mjo mean for this storm/??

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Caught on to something by moving a storm due East when there's a 500 mb low there that should be catcihing it? More like caught ON something!

Exactly, based on the 500mb map, the surface low is placed way too far SE than it should be.

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The GFS being the GFS...

yep. While the model is great for picking up signals and it has gotten much better since the early 2000s, it still is going to do what its going to do. If anything this is a good thing, lol. Really its sfc representation doesn't really make that much sense compared to its UL maps. I believe it is figuring out that ECMWF is more correct in phasing the whole motherlode into the trough creating one massive complex along the east coast. Sometimes the GFS, and other models, will get worse for a good bit before they can compute the entire situation over the course of several to many runs.

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which yoiur Idiot friend ANDY M -- formerly NJwx -- thinks is vastly superor to the euro

LOL

wait now andy will switch and love the euro right?

NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO

Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement.

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DT,

You know that I am agreeing with you here. When you get a sfc map that CLEARLY makes no sense given the upper level setup on the SAME model, it can't be right! And the GFS does this ALL the time! You know I don't believe that trash that Andy said about the GFS being superior to the Euro.

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Guest someguy

THINK of what the last 5 runs of the GFS has done vs the Euro

0z Monday WAY SOUTH matches 0z euro

12z Euro back North a Bit big storm

18z Huge storm more north

0z Huge low for all and Noth

12z out to sea

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NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO

Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement.

I hope you're joking about the NOGAPS. I bet if most of the weenies didn't post here, the NOGAPS would never even be mentioned!

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Guest someguy

NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO

Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement.

so when two NCEP in the 0z MODEL thread --- at the end of the thread -- said the euro ens mean a is better than anything ... they were what ?

ignorant?

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