OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This can be taken two different ways. Either the NAM is considered good because of its agreement with the ECMWF, or since it tends to have a strong/slow bias at this time range, it could imply the ECMWF is too strong/slow. =) DR The GFS has been slowing down the SW energy with time also...gradually coming into better agreement with the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Apparently the ATL low is moving out faster on the 12z GFS than on the 12z NAM. Plus, the s/w energy is in good agreement re placement on the 12z GFS and 12z NAM at 66 hrs 12z NAM 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Ocean low much further NE at 66 while shortwave significantly further SW. I think that's a good combination. GFS is blinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 84 low over sw la. further south than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 sorry ... first I tyuped that post badly and did not make myself clear and I am NOT using that small maps the 0z euro ensemble eman is far MORE impressive if you use the smaller images Huh? Here are the 120hr and 144hr maps I saw: How does that equate to this: Or, rather, how does a 993mb mean low 200mi east of ACY get us to NESIS 5? NESIS 4? Yeah, i guess BDL to BOS could get clobbered with the ECE's forecast. I'm not sure NJ through NYC would do all that great, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Huh? Here are the 120hr and 144hr maps I saw: How does that equate to this: Or, rather, how does a 993mb mean low 200mi east of ACY get us to NESIS 5? NESIS 4? Yeah, i guess BDL to BOS could get clobbered with the ECE's forecast. I'm not sure NJ through NYC would do all that great, though. I agree, ECMWF ENS mean is nowhere near its OP model, but it's still quite a significant signal nonetheless. The 6z GFS actually trended towards the OP ECMWF solution as well in its overall evolution of the trough complex and associated phasing of the entire PV motherlode that drops in from NE Canada. But in the actual literal details of the model's output, it appears to be worse (6z GFS I Mean). I'm just extremely intrigued by the OP ECMWF and how close it is to theoretical banterings ppl have had about a "triple phase" (I don't see an AJ present here personally) or "massive conglomeration of the trough complex over the eastern U.S." ala 1996. It really is freaky how much the OP ECMWF looks just like that beloved event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12z GFS has the s/w is open at h5 over AR at 84 hrs while the 12z NAM had it closed near Dallas TX at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 84 low over sw la. further south than 6z At 90 hrs its in C AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 So far a marked improvement over 0/6z Ridging out west is better and NE low is moving out the way a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Western ridge looks really impressive on this run.. Most of hte models we've seen to this point, really show that nicely.. Now, we have to see how much digging takes place in the East. By the way, the MJO is showing a weak wave getting into phase 7.. Just thought I pass that along.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities at 114 zooming due east this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS still not getting it. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities at 114 zooming due east this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events The GFS being the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Western ridge looks really impressive on this run.. Most of hte models we've seen to this point, really show that nicely.. Now, we have to see how much digging takes place in the East. By the way, the MJO is showing a weak wave getting into phase 7.. Just thought I pass that along.. what does the stage of the mjo mean for this storm/?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities at 114 zooming due east this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events WAYYYYYYYYY east HUGE SHIFT FROM 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it just me or does H5 not match up with the surface depiction at all hr 114? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is it just me or does H5 not match up with the surface depiction at all hr 114? I'm pretty sure a low wouldn't be zooming out to sea with a closed 500 low digging over the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 waaaaay south on the 12z GFS run BIOG miss for i-95 cities at 114 zooming due east this is why I stay away from it past 72 hrs for SECS MECS HECS events Trough starts going negative then but waaayyy too late. GooFuS at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well that was unexpected. Ensembles gonna be crucial for this one....or the GFS may have caught on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS once again damps out the southern energy. This is what happens if the northern stream dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well that was unexpected. Ensembles gonna be crucial for this one....or the GFS may have caught on to something Caught on to something by moving a storm due East when there's a 500 mb low there that should be catcihing it? More like caught ON something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Caught on to something by moving a storm due East when there's a 500 mb low there that should be catcihing it? More like caught ON something! Exactly, based on the 500mb map, the surface low is placed way too far SE than it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well that was unexpected. Ensembles gonna be crucial for this one....or the GFS may have caught on to something Or maybe the GFS is just being too far SE like it usually is at this range? If GGEM and Euro stay wound-up, GFS is pretty irrelevant, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS being the GFS... yep. While the model is great for picking up signals and it has gotten much better since the early 2000s, it still is going to do what its going to do. If anything this is a good thing, lol. Really its sfc representation doesn't really make that much sense compared to its UL maps. I believe it is figuring out that ECMWF is more correct in phasing the whole motherlode into the trough creating one massive complex along the east coast. Sometimes the GFS, and other models, will get worse for a good bit before they can compute the entire situation over the course of several to many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 which yoiur Idiot friend ANDY M -- formerly NJwx -- thinks is vastly superor to the euro LOL wait now andy will switch and love the euro right? NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 DT, You know that I am agreeing with you here. When you get a sfc map that CLEARLY makes no sense given the upper level setup on the SAME model, it can't be right! And the GFS does this ALL the time! You know I don't believe that trash that Andy said about the GFS being superior to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 THINK of what the last 5 runs of the GFS has done vs the Euro 0z Monday WAY SOUTH matches 0z euro 12z Euro back North a Bit big storm 18z Huge storm more north 0z Huge low for all and Noth 12z out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement. I hope you're joking about the NOGAPS. I bet if most of the weenies didn't post here, the NOGAPS would never even be mentioned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOGAPS is superior to your crappy EURO Phasing produce these huge jumps run to run. I'm not even taking much seriously until we are within 3-4 days when data should begin to come closer to an agreement. so when two NCEP in the 0z MODEL thread --- at the end of the thread -- said the euro ens mean a is better than anything ... they were what ? ignorant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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