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12Z Guidance Discussion 12/21/10

Tiburon

By Tiburon,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

So on the one hand we have the model that's arguably best at handing timing of s/w in the medium range...and we have a situation that'd appear to be very sensitive to subtle timing changes. Then, on the other hand, we have a full suit of GFS runs that are fairly resolute in their disagreement with the Euro, and while it's a much maligned model it's not the model that's given my region two or three medium range, and one 72hr, disappointments (12/5 and 12/18 come to mind). In fact the GFS was, while a bit erratic, rarely willing to provide an EC-like bomb scenario. Just as it seems resolutely reluctant to do now. Then we have the UKMET showing something of a GFS track with explosive cyclogenesis, but well out over the Gulf stream rather than on the extreme western edge of the GS. Yes, we do have the GGEM, but c'mon that thing can generate the '93 super-storm off dust devil.

So...my question...I know the initialization of the EC is perfect, but does anyone actually have access to it? Can we see SST along the NC to DE coast line? How does that compare to what the GFS and UK think for init SST in the same region?

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

EC Ensemble Means:

Note: The ensemble mean is somewhat east and faster than the Operational ECMWF.

Don, thanks so much. You wouldn't happen to have access to 132hr would you? If so...how far from ORF does it track?

It sure does appear that even though it's east of the OP it definitely looks west of the 0Z ECE mean.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Don, thanks so much. You wouldn't happen to have access to 132hr would you? If so...how far from ORF does it track?

It sure does appear that even though it's east of the OP it definitely looks west of the 0Z ECE mean.

Unfortunately, I don't. I would note that last night's means were on Cape Hatteras. This time, it's somewhat east of there.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

I agree Ender...the GFS ensembles are all very similar to the Op. Probably the most uniform they've yet been with this upcoming storm and all completely different than the Euro, which also (at least from the ensemble mean) has very good support from its ensembles.

Additionally...HPC obviously has completely tossed the GFS for a Euro-centric solution.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

I agree Ender...the GFS ensembles are all very similar to the Op. Probably the most uniform they've yet been with this upcoming storm and all completely different than the Euro, which also (at least from the ensemble mean) has very good support from its ensembles.

euro always has the upper hand on all models when it comes to eastern storms 3-5 days out..better resolution..GFS gets really good within 3 days 84 hours

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Ender

Ender

Posted
Posted

Unfortunately, I don't. I would note that last night's means were on Cape Hatteras. This time, it's somewhat east of there.

Maybe it's the fever, I'm enjoying the delights of the flu, but the 144hr panel seems like it'd be inside of what thought would have been implied by the 120hr SC coast to 144hr 200mi east of NYC path from last night.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
<br /><br />

<br />

<br />

what is funny about that storm for me Don,<br />

<br />

is that ever since, i never mention any storm to any of my friends or relatives unless it is within 100 hours. before that, i always used to..... but ever since, my mouth is zippered shut even as TV/radio folks mention things and the hype gets out.....i just sit quietly. its a rule i made after that debacle.<br />

<br />

and its already worked out beautifully yet again with the past 2 events already this winter. i have the great NonStorm to thank for that everytime, and i come off looking like a genius.<img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' /> <br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

the utter total and catastrophic failure of the models that February.....not a lesson i will soon forget.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

How come I can't remember this? Was this the run that showed 30 inches for DC but it ended up being a Midwest event and rain for the east?

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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

Posted
Posted

I'm in CT so I don't particularly like the position of the 540 line on the 138-144hr Euro. It slices right through CT and MA and rides the coast of ME out to sea. My initial opinion is that it will severely hurt snow ratios for CT/MA/RI. But I suppose there are bigger fish to fry before worrying about the 1000-500mb thickness.

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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

Posted
Posted

I'm in CT so I don't particularly like the position of the 540 line on the 138-144hr Euro. It slices right through CT and MA and rides the coast of ME out to sea. My initial opinion is that it will severely hurt snow ratios for CT/MA/RI. But I suppose there are bigger fish to fry before worrying about the 1000-500mb thickness.

A MET friend told me not to worry too much about this because with the bomb being predicted dynamic cooling will probably keep it all snow.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

you know...if the EURO showed this solution for a midwest/lake cutter bomb, it would never waver. It only seems to waver for I95 snowstorms

Gees Ji, you scared the hell out of me. This was literally the first post I read in this thread concerning the 12z Euro. I was jumping to random pages trying to find the old posts...I literally thought the euro had lost the storm lol.

to put things in perspective...

in february 2009, all the models showed a 93-esque Superbomb on day 10, day 9, day 8, day 7, day 6.....talking the lowest was a 958mb on the DGEX but all models had it in the 960s, an Apps runner or slight variant.

all the models.....Euro/Ukie/GFS/GGEM/Nogaps/DGEX/JMA......every single run had it. for those 4 straight days.

in the end, there was no storm....anywhere.

Well,

I did get 5-6" out of a surprise norlun trough from that storm :guitar:

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Confuzzled

Confuzzled

Posted
Posted

Ah, the first sighting of "it will make its own cold air"!!!!

Winter has arrived, indeed!

So is there no basis to dynamic cooling? My first thought was that the euro is not underestimating this storm so shouldn't it already be accounting for adiabatic cooling?

I don't know enough to be certian and that is why I posted the comment.

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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted

Gees Ji, you scared the hell out of me. This was literally the first post I read in this thread concerning the 12z Euro. I was jumping to random pages trying to find the old posts...I literally thought the euro had lost the storm lol.

Well,

I did get 5-6" out of a surprise norlun trough from that storm :guitar:

Too bad this wasn't the first post you read:

http://www.americanw...post__p__147589

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Gwhizkids

Gwhizkids

Posted
Posted

So is there no basis to dynamic cooling? My first thought was that the euro is not underestimating this storm so shouldn't it already be accounting for adiabatic cooling?

I don't know enough to be certian and that is why I posted the comment.

My comment was directed more towards historical efforts on certain [ahem, weenie] members who, in the face of incontrovertible evidence that temps aloft or at the surface were not conducive to frozen precip nonetheless holding out hope that dynamical cooling of the column would save the day.

As for your statement, perhaps/perhaps not. I haven't really had time this afternoon to study in depth.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Funny, I have read posts from pro mets saying the euro ens supports the op and ones saying it does not. From my perspective it does look way less amplified and a good bit east, however being an ensemble mean would that not be considered normal? I know the GFS ens mean is almost always south and east and weaker then the op run. But how much is considered normal dampening due to it being an ens mean and how much is significant divergence from support for the op?

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winterymix

winterymix

Posted
Posted

Funny, I have read posts from pro mets saying the euro ens supports the op and ones saying it does not. From my perspective it does look way less amplified and a good bit east, however being an ensemble mean would that not be considered normal? I know the GFS ens mean is almost always south and east and weaker then the op run. But how much is considered normal dampening due to it being an ens mean and how much is significant divergence from support for the op?

The trend is worrisome. Probabilistically, it seems fifty:fifty to have a cool, sheared out suppressed progressive system.

Yesterday, I thought 2" to 4" was reasonable for NVA/MD and after 12Z I thought that upping to 4" to 6" would be the trend but

there seems to be more repeatable model support for 1" to 3" at this point.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted

The trend is worrisome. Probabilistically, it seems fifty:fifty to have a cool, sheared out suppressed progressive system.

Yesterday, I thought 2" to 4" was reasonable for NVA/MD and after 12Z I thought that upping to 4" to 6" would be the trend but

there seems to be more repeatable model support for 1" to 3" at this point.

Still think the 12Z Euro isn't cold?

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