Tiburon Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM initialized, out to 12 hours....0Z for comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, SLP placement on the 09z SREFs at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NAM initialized, out to 12 hours....0Z for comparison: To my untrained eye, the low off the west coast looks to be further south and hanging back compared to the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 isn't the nam going out to friday night now/? If so we should really start to get an idea of what is really going to happen this weekend. edit, if the trought out west is farther west, then the axis of the ridge maybe a bit farther west. Storm further west??Bad?/? Good/?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 isn't the nam going out to friday night now/? If so we should really start to get an idea of what is really going to happen this weekend. edit, if the trought out west is farther west, then the axis of the ridge maybe a bit farther west. Storm further west??Bad?/? Good/?? Why do you say that? The NAM isn't all that great out at the end of it's run. Sure it might give some hints but it's somewhat like using the GFS out near the end of ITS run. I still think the GFS/GGEM/EURO are all the ways to go much more so than the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why do you say that? The NAM isn't all that great out at the end of it's run. Sure it might give some hints but it's somewhat like using the GFS out near the end of ITS run. I still think the GFS/GGEM/EURO are all the ways to go much more so than the NAM at this point. While i agree with the long range nam being ehh, it's good to use under 48 to see the progression with the shortwave in the west.. It has its uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why do you say that? The NAM isn't all that great out at the end of it's run. Sure it might give some hints but it's somewhat like using the GFS out near the end of ITS run. I still think the GFS/GGEM/EURO are all the ways to go much more so than the NAM at this point. just asking, pondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 To my untrained eye, the low off the west coast looks to be further south and hanging back compared to the 0z. which is good i think cuz it will help pump the ridge in the rockies, keeping it more west than earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 h5 seems a bit closer to closing off in the SW at 48 on the 12z then when you compare it to the h5 at 54 on the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I know that is the SREF but WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looking a bit weaker at 54...heights seem a smidge better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 When is the nam's target range? 48 hrs or 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Note the h5 low difference in the SW 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 When is the nam's target range? 48 hrs or 72? From what I have heard 48 is optimal but 60ish you start getting some better runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow, the 12Z NAM sure don't look like the 6Z...and the 12Z sure seems to be heading towards the 0Z EC's placements... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow, the 12Z NAM sure don't look like the 6Z...and the 12Z sure seems to be heading towards the 0Z EC's placements... It sure does look good! Looks more like the bowling ball solution the Euro was showing. SREF alludes to this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The 12z NAM at 72 continues to advertise strong s/w energy in the NW TX area. The s/w is not closed off like it was on the 06z NAM... and the 12z NAM has the s/w slightly slower. There are also differences in our ATL low 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The gulf is open for business. Fill 'er up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, new nam is radically different from the 6z and 0z runs from last night with the s/w. looks slower and farther south similar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wow, the 12Z NAM sure don't look like the 6Z...and the 12Z sure seems to be heading towards the 0Z EC's placements... shocking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol, the differences at h5 at 78 hours vs 6z NAM...looks much better i would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Getting out there of course on the NAM.. but at 78 hrs the 12z NAM closes off an h5 low near the TX/OK border. Its also much slower and further SW than the 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the closing off the the 500 Low in the STJ here is actually good since there is plenty of upstream energy to phase with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Eeveryone I presume did see the 0z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN... which as THEGREATDR againn showed is the best Model for day 3-7 and the 0z euro ensemble shows a NESIS 4 -- 5 event ? -------------------- sorry typed that too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 And our closing shot from the NAM on the 12z run has a tight closed h5 low just north of Dallas TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 North atlantic low is also starting to exit stage right giving it room for the NNE coastal solution the euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, the Gulf is definitely open and will remain open through the period as the S/W makes the transition across TX/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's really interesting how close the 12z NAM is to the 00z ECMWF at the same time. The biggest difference I notice is the Euro is uber amplified with the Rockies ridge. The 564 dm height line goes into Canada in the Euro while it only reaches southern Montana on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 EVERYone DID SEE THE 0z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN... which as THEGREATDR point out which shwos a NESIS 4 -- 5 event right? A NESIS 4-5 event? Isn't that pretty high up there for everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 0z 12/25 still has the low in East Texas. Getting to Grandma's house may be OK. It's the getting home part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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