We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[CoastalWx]

Well it's basically a forgone conclusion that NW sees one max from the quasi stationary front. What is still uncertain is whether there is another max over SNE somewhere. The runs that try and push the low over the south coast and cape would argue for another max over SNE. Probably somewhere in E/C MA and RI up into SE NH. The euro scenario of the low further west doesn't really give a second max down in our region. Just a shot of heavy rain.

This is only talking inside of 60h of course. The second part is pretty convoluted and could give a lot of heavy rain too.

 

Yeah pretty much. They'll be the one max just from the front alone as you said. Then we'll see if another one sets up as the front moves SE and any low develops. 

[CoastalWx]

Seriously. I'd volunteer my time to write something to consume the data and present it with cleaner graphics just so I can view the damned thing properly.

 

The graphics are fine. You can zoom in. 

[CoastalWx]

Sometimes smoothed out "pretty" graphics are great for the eyes, but not the most accurate. 

[ORH_wxman]

Good day to review this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/orographic_rainfall.htm

Oh wow. The old school study done by Dave Vallee back in the 1990s. Yeah that's a good review for looking for the jackpot spots. Key is fetch direction and duration along with speed. This could be more useful in round 2 if round 1 keeps trending a bit west. Round 2 could have long duration.

[Ginx snewx]

For the weekend this is a great read and wow on the 850/250 sd's 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/HeavyrainspreprintWAF_stuart.pdf

 

 link to data they reference is here

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/gefsp.html

 

 

[CoastalWx]

October has had some prolific rainstorms with the combo of high PWAT air thanks to warm SSTs, but synoptics also aiding in squeezing out available moisture. Definitely one for the high terrain in western MA and SW NH to watch given issues at hand. 

[CoastalWx]

Those graphics are only as good as the handling of Joaquin...just buyer beware. But yeah, overall both U-V and PWATs all anomalously high.

[Ginx snewx]

Sometimes smoothed out "pretty" graphics are great for the eyes, but not the most accurate. 

Dude that might be true but I already had my scrambled eggs

[CoastalWx]

Dude that might be true but I already had my scrambled eggs

 

I like the straight up raw graphics. Smoothing only makes it look pretty and sells the sizzle.

[Jenkins]

Coastal/Any other mets, why does the HWRF have the tendency to blow up most storms into hurricanes/major hurricanes? Also, how is that useful in the overall process? Are their some things it is good at? Or is this just a misconception?

[Ginx snewx]

Those graphics are only as good as the handling of Joaquin...just buyer beware. But yeah, overall both U-V and PWATs all anomalously high.

Even if J is out of the picture I'd argue the inflow alone is a prolific rainmaker. I have an employee named Joaquin, we call him J. great guy with an awesome work ethic. He will be hearing his name a lot it seems.

[CoastalWx]

Coastal/Any other mets, why does the HWRF have the tendency to blow up most storms into hurricanes/major hurricanes? Also, how is that useful in the overall process? Are their some things it is good at? Or is this just a misconception?

 

I think you need to look at the model physics. I can't say if it is 100% wrong, but it has a tendency to strengthen storms too much. Maybe it underestimates shear and dry air...maybe it's just is too aggressive.  I will say it looks to assume some tropical characteristics in the solutions that drive it into NJ. Given warm SSTs and environment, it may be right in that regard. But the strength? I take it with a grain of salt. 

[Ginx snewx]

I like the straight up raw graphics. Smoothing only makes it look pretty and sells the sizzle.

lol guess you haven't seen products with concise numbers/contours just like BTV with the same output. Its not about sizzle its about clarity. That is an absolute hot mess. Reliving your Compaq 1040 days? 

[CoastalWx]

Even if J is out of the picture I'd argue the inflow alone is a prolific rainmaker. I have an employee named Joaquin, we call him J. great guy with an awesome work ethic. He will be hearing his name a lot it seems.

 

Yeah if we have the front nearby, it's days of those fine droplet/warm process rain. LOL.

[CoastalWx]

lol guess you haven't seen products with concise numbers/contours just like BTV with the same output. Its not about sizzle its about clarity. That is an absolute hot mess. Reliving your Compaq 1040 days? 

 

Hey if you know how to look at it, I don't care if it's an Andy Tandy, 

[Ginx snewx]

Hey if you know how to look at it, I don't care if it's an Andy Tandy, 

just bustin, hows that WRF for accuracy? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Good day to review this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/orographic_rainfall.htm

Funny how generalized that outlined area is. Has TOL and Stafford as well as some of the NW hills in the CTRV

[Damage In Tolland]

Upslope, dude lol the HWRF 12z is awesome, like a 931 into Atlantic City

6z GEFS show some really fun solutions

 

http://mp1.met.psu.e...rsloopmref.html

[CoastalWx]

just bustin, hows that WRF for accuracy? 

 

It seems a little aggressive with convection. Also, like many mesos...typically inconsistent 24+ hrs out. Inside 24 hrs it did ok...especially last winter. Like everything else, it is guidance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good day to review this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/orographic_rainfall.htm

B and C are nice....A not so much.

[radarman]

B and C are nice....A not so much.

 

Agree, we can pass on A in the fall.  Even in the winter I'm not sure we've ever been able to get snow in that setup... For about 1 or 2 model runs I thought we had a chance for it in Feb 2010, before it ended up NW.  

 

The only way the valley can orographically enhance anything is in the form of the moisture funnel, so no surprise that S winds at the surface were the identifying characteristic.  You need a stalled out front as a precursor for sustained return, then add in a little low level helicity for efficiency and we're soaked. 

[weatherwiz]

For the weekend this is a great read and wow on the 850/250 sd's 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/HeavyrainspreprintWAF_stuart.pdf

 

 link to data they reference is here

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/gefsp.html

 

Was just looking at that...looks like the 6z guidance has a bit lower easterly SD's now (-2 to -3)

[Bostonseminole]

who is doing the NAM play by play?

 

 

jk.. lol

[ORH_wxman]

Agree, we can pass on A in the fall.  Even in the winter I'm not sure we've ever been able to get snow in that setup... For about 1 or 2 model runs I thought we had a chance for it in Feb 2010, before it ended up NW.  

 

The only way the valley can orographically enhance anything is in the form of the moisture funnel, so no surprise that S winds at the surface were the identifying characteristic.  You need a stalled out front as a precursor for sustained return, then add in a little low level helicity for efficiency and we're soaked. 

 

 

Winter systems tend to be more dynamically driven anyway with those tighter baroclinic zones...though there are some exceptions when orographics play a huge role (like Dec '92...and perhaps Mar '13....certainly the rain event in Mar 2010 too).

 

This one will be interesting to track...if round 1 ends up mostly has a transient heavy rain burst from the frontal zone moving through, there is a decent chance round 2 will be a more long duration event anyway.

[Bostonseminole]

NAM coming in as discussed.. focusing on two key ares.. Upstate NY, WNE and SE MASS 

[Ginx snewx]

NAM coming in as discussed.. focusing on two key ares.. Upstate NY, WNE and SE MASS 

I am rooting to be under the split of the 7-10 split. 1 inch or so, everyone else can have the 3-6

[CT Rain]

I'm a little concerned parts of SNE may miss out on the heaviest of the rain. Models really like the heavy rain threat tomorrow across NNE where the best low level convergence is.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm a little concerned parts of SNE may miss out on the heaviest of the rain. Models really like the heavy rain threat tomorrow across NNE where the best low level convergence is.

I am not concerned as that would be great news.

[CT Rain]

I am not concerned as that would be great news.

 

I would really like more than 1/2" or 1" tomorrow. 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm a little concerned parts of SNE may miss out on the heaviest of the rain. Models really like the heavy rain threat tomorrow across NNE where the best low level convergence is.

 

With the westward trend, it's more likely we are not going to get slammed in round 1.

 

Though we still have to watch it closely...50 miles could make a big difference.