We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[powderfreak]

962mb and moving north at 138.. Weird stuff going on. Powderfreak will agree this scenario is tossed. Strung out and crazy looking.

Yeah it's just too weird. There's like 4 low pressures in the Atlantic meandering around.

But still 12"+ rainfall for parts of VA/NC.

Finally getting some rain into New England at hour 144.

[TalcottWx]

Lol. The storm is well out to sea but the trof just keeps raining over SNE. It's a funny run.

[powderfreak]

Lol. The storm is well out to sea but the trof just keeps raining over SNE. It's a funny run.

Blizz won't be happy with no wind threat on that run.

[TalcottWx]

outflow is definitely increasing with Joaquin now on sat. Cloud tops are doing okay and overall organization is improved. Definitely jogging southward it appears. It's a genuine possibility that this thing sits too far south, moves to slow to impact us in the way we may have thought. Good reason why everyone said a good soaking is nearly definite but pump the brakes on a tropical landfall in SNE.

[TalcottWx]

Blizz won't be happy with no wind threat on that run.

Lets remember too its only one euro run and the incredible difference from past run. It's far from anywhere close to being forecastable yet. Plus the ensemble means will be interesting to look at and compare.

[TalcottWx]

Can't post wxbell maps!

[CoastalWx]

Seems like first part focuses western and central areas, second part further east perhaps. All in all widespread siggy rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Blizz won't be happy with no wind threat on that run.

Happier with ENS

[CoastalWx]

Happier with ENS

Did you look?

[Damage In Tolland]

Did you look?

Heard there's still lots of spread..some up coast..some a hit..fewer OTS like op..

 

One thing for sure..You aren't plowing it into that strong ridge to the north and OTS like the op showed

[CoastalWx]

We'll have to watch convection too..just like the last event that screwed around with model QPF. Mesos have sort of two areas. One in western and NNE, other further east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems cane potential is increasing?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  19m

19 minutes agoState College, PA

Shear should relax over Joaquin tom/Thur and if that is the cap holding it down, see no reason why should not intensify to cat 2 or 3

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles are pretty much mind boggling for a mean regarding QPF. SOS all over New England.

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS looks Meh through 120 only about 2 inches of rain, lol. Frontal wave rains are heaviest further NW and Juaquin just basically stalls and drifts NE and another coastal forms near NC but all the heaviest rains seem focused further W on thus run so far. Models are all over the place with Joaquin.

[CoastalWx]

6z GFS with pretty much 3-4"+. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

6z GFS with over 10" rain Cape Cod.

Lol. I'm only at hour 138. Clearly the dumping resumes later on.

[CoastalWx]

Lol. I'm only at hour 138. Clearly the dumping resumes later on.

 

No I edited it. Wrong model.

[CT Valley Snowman]

There is a nice band with storm 2 over the Cape. Clearly these bullseyes are going to be jumping around. The EC ensembles are impressively juicy.

[moneypitmike]

There is a nice band with storm 2 over the Cape. Clearly these bullseyes are going to be jumping around. The EC ensembles are impressively juicy.

The jackpot wheel of fortune......where will it stop.,

[dryslot]

3-5" overnight into weds night

[CarverWX]

So I planned to redo my roof this weekend. Is there any chance Saturday will be dry?

[ORH_wxman]

Euro would favor the CT Valley for round 1...a bit different than other guidance. It keeps the BL winds southerly for the bulk of round one while other guidance has us on the cool side pretty quick and it's more of a NE wind. Although the 06z GFS trended that way...keeping the first wave of LP a little more westward.

 

IF round1 stays a bit west with the wave, then we'll probably see good enhancement in the CT River valley...esp up into S VT. IT also focuses the bulk of convergence from the front itself in CNE/NNE...so we'd likely only get a more brief round of heavy rain in SNE int hat scenario. But this isn't even talking about anything beyond 48-54 hours...there's obviously another part to the system.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro would favor the CT Valley for round 1...a bit different than other guidance. It keeps the BL winds southerly for the bulk of round one while other guidance has us on the cool side pretty quick and it's more of a NE wind. Although the 06z GFS trended that way...keeping the first wave of LP a little more westward.

 

IF round1 stays a bit west with the wave, then we'll probably see good enhancement in the CT River valley...esp up into S VT. IT also focuses the bulk of convergence from the front itself in CNE/NNE...so we'd likely only get a more brief round of heavy rain in SNE int hat scenario. But this isn't even talking about anything beyond 48-54 hours...there's obviously another part to the system.

Ens numbers on GEFS , Euro, GEPS, are insane. Can you recall outputs like this? I can"t

[CoastalWx]

I think round 1 favors west, but have to watch for those lows that sort of move NE as a blob of heavy rain and convection and shift the axis around. We saw that twice this summer already. Some of the meso models do that. 

[CoastalWx]

I think round 1 favors west, but have to watch for those lows that sort of move NE as a blob of heavy rain and convection and shift the axis around. We saw that twice this summer already. Some of the meso models do that. 

 

Kind of what I mean.

 

http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf

[Ginx snewx]

Kind of what I mean.

 

http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf

worst graphics ever

[CoastalWx]

worst graphics ever

 

But a decent model.  Just one of many. 

[ORH_wxman]

I think round 1 favors west, but have to watch for those lows that sort of move NE as a blob of heavy rain and convection and shift the axis around. We saw that twice this summer already. Some of the meso models do that.

Well it's basically a forgone conclusion that NW sees one max from the quasi stationary front. What is still uncertain is whether there is another max over SNE somewhere. The runs that try and push the low over the south coast and cape would argue for another max over SNE. Probably somewhere in E/C MA and RI up into SE NH. The euro scenario of the low further west doesn't really give a second max down in our region. Just a shot of heavy rain.

This is only talking inside of 60h of course. The second part is pretty convoluted and could give a lot of heavy rain too.

[Ginx snewx]

Well it's basically a forgone conclusion that NW sees one max from the quasi stationary front. What is still uncertain is whether there is another max over SNE somewhere. The runs that try and push the low over the south coast and cape would argue for another max over SNE. Probably somewhere in E/C MA and RI up into SE NH. The euro scenario of the low further west doesn't really give a second max down in our region. Just a shot of heavy rain.

This is only talking inside of 60h of course. The second part is pretty convoluted and could give a lot of heavy rain too.

Good day to review this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/orographic_rainfall.htm

[Jenkins]

worst graphics ever

 

Seriously. I'd volunteer my time to write something to consume the data and present it with cleaner graphics just so I can view the damned thing properly.