We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[ORH_wxman]

SREFs had the highest QPF probabilities right over the spine of the terrain. Not so sure that's how it plays out.

 

I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume....but I guess we'll just have to see how it evolves overnight. Convection will make it difficult on guidance obviously.

 

[CoastalWx]

I mean look for yourself. Models always underplay this in the warm season.

 

18z NAM

 

 

00z nAM

 

 

 

Radar

 

[CoastalWx]

I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume.

 

This happened twice already. Models overdid frontogenic forcing near front and underplayed the area with high theta-e octane. This seems to be a warm season theme where convection screws around with model QPF distribution.

[ineedsnow]

Seems like we get crushed later on

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Moderate rain. First steady rain of the event.  0.20" since 4pm.

 

68/65

[HoarfrostHubb]

An angry atmosphere heading our way

[OceanStWx]

I'm not overly enthused about that idea panning out...there will def be a stripe of large totals where the frontal boundary is quasi-stationary, but it's looking more and more like there could be some huge totals along the nose of the southerly moisture plume....but I guess we'll just have to see how it evolves overnight. Convection will make it difficult on guidance obviously.

 

Check out the NAM anomalies, throws a 5 sigma southerly LLJ into the coast mid morning tomorrow.

 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is tossed. Already on crack at hr 6. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hudson Valley soaker.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Check out the NAM anomalies, throws a 5 sigma southerly LLJ into the coast mid morning tomorrow.

 

 

Yeah that isn't going without some consequences....I do like how the NAM 6 hour forecast through 06z has almost no rain in PHL.

 

Woops.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah that isn't going without some consequences....I do like how the NAM 6 hour forecast through 06z has almost no rain in PHL.

 

Woops.

 

Good thing I was looking at 18z NAM anomalies.

[moneypitmike]

This happened twice already. Models overdid frontogenic forcing near front and underplayed the area with high theta-e octane. This seems to be a warm season theme where convection screws around with model QPF distribution.

Not sure I'm following but i think you're telling ginx to put on his rubbers.

Pretty me here so far. Still less than .2. Should be wet when I head for Boston at 4:45.

[TalcottWx]

Frederick MD is already reporting 5+"

[CoastalWx]

Basically use radar and common sense. NAM and HRRR are diaper worthy.

[Gwhizkids]

Finally starting to see some convection south of LI. So far, only some mist here in Western CT.

[moneypitmike]

Frederick MD is already reporting 5+"

Yikes. They could fine themselves with Haiti like hurricane totals if things play out the right wsy.

[ORH_wxman]

The convection may steal the show...still have to see how it evolves overnight, but it's happening down int he mid-atlantic. I do really like the tropical connection going all the way to the tropics...literally. The convection south of LI is probably just the beginning. That will probably go nuts as this thing moves NE later tonight.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Basically use radar and common sense. NAM and HRRR are diaper worthy.

 

As far as common sense goes the air was thick  with moisture here all day and now there is steady rain which feels like it is not stopping anytime soon. Good soaking on the way here but best may be west with round 1.

[TalcottWx]

The convection may steal the show...still have to see how it evolves overnight, but it's happening down int he mid-atlantic. I do really like the tropical connection going all the way to the tropics...literally. The convection south of LI is probably just the beginning. That will probably go nuts as this thing moves NE later tonight.

I've been trying to decipher the movement of the batch which is undoubtedly NE.. But where exactly is the question. The coolest cloud tops and most impressive wv imagery honestly seems to be heading right for SNE.

[CT Rain]

Rpm seems like it has a decent handle on things.

[Ginx snewx]

Rpm seems like it has a decent handle on things.

how much in our hood

[HIPPYVALLEY]

0.25".

[TalcottWx]

Can someone post the RPM...... 

[Nittany88]

We've had some pretty heavy rain here with increased convergence as the front sagged south. Up to 1.51" at BTV.

[QcSevereWx]

the Nam 0z is really intense. 6-7'' of rain in New Brunswick

[wxeyeNH]

.90" as of 10:30pm

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Tossing and turning in Tolland as dreams speak of qpf lost.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Central NH and W ME mountains getting some good rains.

[Bostonseminole]

the higher resolution NAM still dumps 2-3" for most of the area..

[TalcottWx]

I'm going all in for this morning deal. Someone is going to get crushed.