We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Yes OSU, that is my source, the SHIPS model showing 5 knots of shear from 36 hours to 72 hours out.  I think Joaquin will take full advantage of this situation in front of it, and become a monster major hurricane.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

If we start a hurricane thread than it will become lost in a world of nothingness.  I would like for them to stay as one since it is all simply a whole event.

[CoastalWx]

Come Feb you will be itching for a Center Harbor trip to remember what snow looks like.

 

 

 Most likely.  I should start gluing last year's pics to my ceiling now.

[Ginx snewx]

Someone seriously start a cane thread. There's too much going on in this one...this was originally for the rains through Thu morning.

done

[dendrite]

If we start a hurricane thread than it will become lost in a world of nothingness.  I would like for them to stay as one since it is all simply a whole event.

Denied

[UnionWeatherWx]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

image.jpg

What is the name of that radar app? If it cost money, how much?

[Gwhizkids]

What is the name of that radar app? If it cost money, how much?

RadarScope. $10

[mitchnick]

You can see the blob down by DC., That's what to watch for SNE, Could be high impact/short duration RA+++

It's just hitting my area now. Charlottesville, VA had some big numbers out of it a few hours ago, like 1.5-2" over 2-3 hours.

[dryslot]

Denied

 

lol

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

The city seems to be preparing for a worst case scenario, sending out messages to prepare for "excessive rainfall exceeding 6 inches."

[OceanStWx]

The Euro's difficult to explain... 

 

These trends today clearly appear similar to the 12z run yesterday, yet since then, the Euro has abandoned and I can't find a model that really does what the Euro does.  Maybe there is a wayward ensemble member somewhere but - 

 

the big question is how well the steering levels are being handled wrt to the trough amplifying near the TV region and how it kisses in with the west Atlantic ridge.  Said ridge is imposing about -2 SD easterly anomalies....might not be enough to really induce a hard left turn alone, but should that mid and u/a vortex really do all that, the two together may enforce a capture.  

 

In truth, there are more than enough Euro EPS members that show an East Coast landfall, that the op shouldn't be taken as gold. A quick run through would suggest more than half make landfall somewhere between CHS and EWB.

[TalcottWx]

This type of setup isn't being hit with enough emphasis on uncertainty. These PRE rains and tropical plumes are about as predictable as inverted winter trof/norluns. 

[Typhoon Tip]

In truth, there are more than enough Euro EPS members that show an East Coast landfall, that the op shouldn't be taken as gold. A quick run through would suggest more than half make landfall somewhere between CHS and EWB.

 

Yeah I don't have access to those, but that's good to know!  

 

Would it be safe to say the Euro op. is an outlier or is that too strong. 

[TalcottWx]

Since this is more of the flooding thread... It looks to me as if heaviest rains are SE as of what they were modeled right now. Seems to be over BWI/DC than PA.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I don't have access to those, but that's good to know!  

 

Would it be safe to say the Euro op. is an outlier or is that too strong. 

 

That's a safe assessment based on what I see.

 

[TalcottWx]

That's a safe assessment based on what I see.

 

Am I crazy about the Mid Atl rain?

[TalcottWx]

Borderline couplet in MD right now...

[OceanStWx]

Am I crazy about the Mid Atl rain?

 

No, we were just discussing upping our rainfall forecast for southern zones (like SE NH) because we "only" had around 2-2.5" down there.

[CoastalWx]

HRRR tossed. Just breaks up rain in DC. Not happening.

[CoastalWx]

That area of rain NW of DC is out of control.

[TalcottWx]

No, we were just discussing upping our rainfall forecast for southern zones (like SE NH) because we "only" had around 2-2.5" down there.

Yeah, this is heading right for SNE. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

That area of rain NW of DC is out of control.

 

Did any model really have that?

 

Even the RGEM didn't have it...it didn't go nuts until much further northeast near BID/MVY.

[CoastalWx]

That's the area to watch as it heads NE. That low ahead of the front moving SE. That's where the real FFW may be. 

[OceanStWx]

A lot of +RA showing up in METARs around there.

[ORH_wxman]

12z GGEM had that very heavy blob of rain that far SE...if you look at the 15z SREF suite, literally every single member whiffed on that rain in MD.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, this is heading right for SNE.

WCT Berks orh County, SNH

[CoastalWx]

Did any model really have that?

 

Even the RGEM didn't have it...it didn't go nuts until much further northeast near BID/MVY.

 

RGEM had an idea at 12z.

 

[OceanStWx]

12z GGEM had that very heavy blob of rain that far SE...if you look at the 15z SREF suite, literally every single member whiffed on that rain in MD.

 

SREFs had the highest QPF probabilities right over the spine of the terrain. Not so sure that's how it plays out.

[CoastalWx]

That has been a common theme I have noticed. You have this LLJ, meso low aided by convection ahead of the cold front...that's part of the reason why i was wondering if we would see a second QPF max. Just seems like if you have a s/w to help out, you can get these latent heat lows from convection like we see now. 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM had an idea at 12z.

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_4.png

 

Yeah but it fizzled it really fast before really redeveloping it over south coast of SNE. Anyways, this is that big theta-e and convection that the models would probably have a bit of trouble with.