We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[OceanStWx]

Joaquin's circulation is getting tighter and further underneath the deepest convection, look out by DMAX time, its going to explode.

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, but how exactly do you know that with cirrus outflow masking the low level circulation on IR?

 

Assuming the circulation hasn't moved much from when it was exposed this afternoon, convection is only now starting to move over it. And even then it is still dominating the eastern side of the circulation.

 

[eekuasepinniW]

Why do we have to compare everything to something?  Lets just enjoy the flood and be jealous of anyone that gets wind.

[dendrite]

Wish we had a separate cane thread......

[40/70 Benchmark]

Size wise this is no Sandy, but this should be a potential category three or stronger hurricane within the next 72 hours.  Before likely heading north of the Gulf Stream.  Wind shear is expected to continue to drop and now SHIPS guidance has 5-10 knots over Joaquin after 36 hours through 72 hours.  With intensification occurring now, I expect when shear drops off this will be a monster hurricane strength wise, perhaps stronger than Sandy.

This is never, ever, ever going to be a major hurricane.

[dendrite]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

[Ginx snewx]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

image.jpg

horrible color scheme

[Typhoon Tip]

Wish we had a separate cane thread......

 

They're all of nothing ... both intellectually, and emotionally.

 

If it's consistently expressing, then the interest garnered and involvement stresses server bandwidths... But, the instant some reasonably dependable model cycles out a miss and it's ...

 

 

crickets...   Oh, crickets after a page or two of trolling while people vent.  

 

It's the same reason why the tropical threads always become(came) insufferable.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Congrats, Dendrite.

May as well warm up for the winter.

[dryslot]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

image.jpg

 

Had a couple of heavier showers move thru here and looks like more on the way

[OceanStWx]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

image.jpg

 

Ugh, it's terrible how bad our radar is over NH. You should be using BOX too.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats, Dendrite.

May as well warm up for the winter.

Hope the Bates motel survives

[40/70 Benchmark]

They're all of nothing ... both intellectually, and emotionally.

 

If it's consistently expressing, then the interest garnered and involvement stresses server bandwidths... But, the instant some reasonably dependable model cycles out a miss and it's ...

 

 

crickets...   Oh, crickets after a page or two of trolling while people vent.  

 

It's the same reason why the tropical threads always become(came) insufferable.  

It always should have been the inverse here.

Expect nothing, then the cape cod weenies of the world have dreams wetter than the heaviest rain bands upon a solitary modeled strike.

[eekuasepinniW]

0.80" Nice headstart over much of the rest of the state.

It seems you pulled ahead of me during my after dinner nap.

 

0.71" here

[CoastalWx]

Congrats, Dendrite.

May as well warm up for the winter.

 

Give him the rain. We take the snow.

[OSUmetstud]

This is never, ever, ever going to be a major hurricane.

I think it will, most likely around 60 to 72 hours.

[Typhoon Tip]

The Euro's difficult to explain... 

 

These trends today clearly appear similar to the 12z run yesterday, yet since then, the Euro has abandoned and I can't find a model that really does what the Euro does.  Maybe there is a wayward ensemble member somewhere but - 

 

the big question is how well the steering levels are being handled wrt to the trough amplifying near the TV region and how it kisses in with the west Atlantic ridge.  Said ridge is imposing about -2 SD easterly anomalies....might not be enough to really induce a hard left turn alone, but should that mid and u/a vortex really do all that, the two together may enforce a capture.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Give him the rain. We take the snow.

[Ginx snewx]

They're all of nothing ... both intellectually, and emotionally.

If it's consistently expressing, then the interest garnered and involvement stresses server bandwidths... But, the instant some reasonably dependable model cycles out a miss and it's ...

crickets... Oh, crickets after a page or two of trolling while people vent.

It's the same reason why the tropical threads always become(came) insufferable.

remember when server band width was a legit issue, welcome to 2015

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it will, most likely around 60 to 72 hours.

I say no.

Loser doesn't post for a week

[OSUmetstud]

I say no.

Loser doesn't post for a week

Lol deal.

[Ginx snewx]

I say no.

Loser doesn't post for a week

lol big bucks

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lol deal.

Are you south of Buffalo?

[OSUmetstud]

Loving that 5 kt or so of shear on the ships after 36 hrs to about 96 hours.

[CoastalWx]

You can see the blob down by DC., That's what to watch for SNE, Could be high impact/short duration RA+++

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Super inflow band has developed in the southwest quadrant of Joaquin.  Plus I think an mid level eye feature is developing with this system.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can see the blob down by DC., That's what to watch for SNE, Could be high impact/short duration RA+++

Wet 'n wild weenies

[OSUmetstud]

Are you south of Buffalo?

I'm right in the city now. I live near Canisius college. I used to live in lackawanna. I work in hamburg, very close to the stadium.

[dendrite]

Give him the rain. We take the snow.

Come Feb you will be itching for a Center Harbor trip to remember what snow looks like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm right in the city now. I live near Canisius college. I used to live in lackawanna. I work in hamburg, very close to the stadium.

Hamburg.....the best location in Buffalo nation.

[dendrite]

Someone seriously start a cane thread. There's too much going on in this one...this was originally for the rains through Thu morning.