We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[CoastalWx]

Rain at home.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Scott, I think Joaquin could become a major hurricane.  I would lean towards an 85-100 knot peak intensity.

[klw]

GFS is Sandy only south. Jesus.

Isabel the 2nd

 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

What a nightmare for forecasters in the M.A and NYC. A "hey, let's talk about this in a couple days" approach is probably best.

[JC-CT]

Scott, I think Joaquin could become a major hurricane.  I would lean towards an 85-100 knot peak intensity.

 

I bet you enjoyed the 18z 4km NAM 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Any reports from the G-IV aircraft right now around Joaquin?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I definitely enjoyed the 18z NAM 4 km.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Of course 18z goes nuts..never fails.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If Joaquin takes that NHC track, it's going out to sea.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

NHC track won't be right until up to 24 hours before landfall, pay attention to the cone of uncertainty.

[backedgeapproaching]

Steady -RN pretty much all day with occasional heavier bursts.   

 

.38

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

lol no

That's what I thougt before Sandy. And the storm its self was amazing. The aftermath was horrndous with half my town destroyed. Not sure anyone really wants that

[40/70 Benchmark]

NHC track won't be right until up to 24 hours before landfall, pay attention to the cone of uncertainty.

Just saying what it shows.

[Typhoon Tip]

If Joaquin takes that NHC track, it's going out to sea.

 

I noticed that too... 

 

Didn't have time to read there thingy; not sure what their philosophy is actually based upon, but it "seems" like they are throwing more ballast in favor of the Euro solution there.

 

That's odd, too, considering 

1) there's been a right bias all season with TCs forecasting positions beyond even 48 hours

2) if so ...it's the only run taking out. Particularly, the 12z yesterday was Sandy on 'roids, then last night it was wildly out to see -- no continuity. 

 

I find this whole ordeal peculiar.  ...Almost a hot-potato where no one wants to own it.  I guess the best to to is go with that cone of uncertainty, and they do paint that sucker like ...everywhere.  so I guess we can hang any error on that -

 

Frankly, I don't have personal issue with an upper MA to Maine impact.   

[ineedsnow]

Aftermath would be bad but to experience it would make my life complete.. 10 hour drive coming this weekend hmmmm or can I get lucky and have it hit further north if it does at all

That's what I thougt before Sandy. And the storm its self was amazing. The aftermath was horrndous with half my town destroyed. Not sure anyone really wants that

[40/70 Benchmark]

My $ is out to sea.

[dendrite]

Drenched already. 0.61" and +RA.

[wxeyeNH]

Drenched already. 0.61" and +RA.

LOL   .10" and sprinkles

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will preface this statement with the fact that we are still several days away from potential impact, but we have a hurricane trying to come up the coast in October, with the NHC and EURO well out to sea.

 

Don't give yourself a margarine trying to discern the most likely outcome.

[dendrite]

LOL   .10" and sprinkles

Just had 0.20" in 6 minutes. 0.72" and counting.

[Ginx snewx]

J is no Sandy

[CoastalWx]

Nice drink here to start it off. Don't expect much until tomorrow. Then days of rain and/or drizzle.

[Damage In Tolland]

J is no Sandy

Certainly has the potential to be.. Only further north

[Ginx snewx]

Certainly had the potential to be.. Only further north

not even close size wise, I K E wise. Not a super storm but a cane

[CoastalWx]

not even close size wise, I K E wise. Not a super storm but a cane

Look at BWI. Stronger than Sandy verbatim in terms of winds.

[Ginx snewx]

Look at BWI. Stronger than Sandy verbatim in terms of winds.

Sandy caused extensive damage from RI to NC to Michigan, it's not just about a core of winds. No comparison

[CT Rain]

not even close size wise, I K E wise. Not a super storm but a cane

True in terms of size. GFS verbatim is stronger at the core... Very hurricane like.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Size wise this is no Sandy, but this should be a potential category three or stronger hurricane within the next 72 hours.  Before likely heading north of the Gulf Stream.  Wind shear is expected to continue to drop and now SHIPS guidance has 5-10 knots over Joaquin after 36 hours through 72 hours.  With intensification occurring now, I expect when shear drops off this will be a monster hurricane strength wise, perhaps stronger than Sandy.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

True in terms of size. GFS verbatim is stronger at the core... Very hurricane like.

 

Yes exactly, you know when the GFS and NAM models are in line with the CMC/GFDL/HWRF/UKMET models in terms of strength, this is going to be a big storm.  Convection is becoming more symmetrical.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Joaquin's circulation is getting tighter and further underneath the deepest convection, look out by DMAX time, its going to explode.