We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[moneypitmike]

Good trends on guidance for the most part....backing away from riding I84 in a canoe. Watch 18z go nuts though.

I want my qpf.

[RIcoastalWX]

SW to NE band of heavy rain just moved over Westerly.

Appeared to be a low top band with heavy, dense yet small tropical-like raindrops that strengthened as it moved onshore.

.36 in about 20 minutes. Nice way to kick off this event.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I want my qpf.

2-4" is enough?

[wxeyeNH]

18Z NAM stopped at 48 hours on NCEP.  Anyone have a link to a finished run of 18Z NAM

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Joaquin looks close to a hurricane right now, center under deepest convection.

[CoastalWx]

I still like a two part area tonight/tomorrow for rain. One with front Eastern NY/Western MA and up through NNE. Other maybe ern CT into RI and SE MA. My guess.  Could easily be central MA too.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice. .11 in the bucket back at the pit while I look our my window in Boston and see sun and blue sky. Start an observed thread?

just a light shower down the road in Greenfield so far.

[CoastalWx]

The tropical models sort of give me pause for quick OTS euro solution. They are usually something to watch when systems keep tropical characteristics which this should do. I think right now, you can't make a call with high confidence either way. I am not talking about HWRF etc...I mean the suite of guidance. 

[Whineminster]

 

We prepare. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

We prepare.

some prepare for disappointment.

[OceanStWx]

The tropical models sort of give me pause for quick OTS euro solution. They are usually something to watch when systems keep tropical characteristics which this should do. I think right now, you can't make a call with high confidence either way. I am not talking about HWRF etc...I mean the suite of guidance. 

 

You really can't lock in any one scenario with Joaquin at this point. GEM supports the HWRF, GFS supports the Euro. Ensembles support everything else in between.

 

It's funny to see the NHC shift the track west early in the cone and east late.

[CoastalWx]

You really can't lock in any one scenario with Joaquin at this point. GEM supports the HWRF, GFS supports the Euro. Ensembles support everything else in between.

 

It's funny to see the NHC shift the track west early in the cone and east late.

 

Yeah I think the NHC is clueless as well...and I can't totally fault them. 

[CoastalWx]

Some of the mesos are crushing central MA and CT too.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I think the NHC is clueless as well...and I can't totally fault them. 

 

They slap a name on it and then...

 

[OceanStWx]

Some of the mesos are crushing central MA and CT too.

 

Peeking at the meteograms for PWM, NMM has 2.8" through tomorrow, the ARW 8.0"!

[OceanStWx]

A lot of QPF coming with that theta-e bomb during the day Wednesday.

[ineedsnow]

Lol 18z gfs just a little different

[CoastalWx]

A lot of QPF coming with that theta-e bomb during the day Wednesday.

Love me some theta-e bomb.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is Sandy only south. Jesus.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think Joaquin will be a hurricane by 5am tomorrow.  Does anybody know the next Recon flight into Joaquin?

[JC-CT]

I think Joaquin will be a hurricane by 5am tomorrow.  Does anybody know the next Recon flight into Joaquin?

 

Looking pretty darn good at the moment, I must say.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ship shows Joaquin reaching 85 knots at peak, 100mph winds.  Also SSTs don't go above 29.5C also.  Also the LGEM shows a potent hurricane as well. 

[OceanStWx]

GFS is Sandy only south. Jesus.

 

HWRF, GEM, Ukie, and GFS? A new consensus forming? Ha

[ineedsnow]

Move the gfs north 200 miles and alot of people would be happy

[JC-CT]

Well, GEFS were still all over the place, and we are still talking 4+ days out. Wouldn't expect to lock in anything quite yet.

[JC-CT]

It may never stop raining.

[CoastalWx]

HWRF, GEM, Ukie, and GFS? A new consensus forming? Ha

Just part of the gumbo pot of solutions. You can see what it does. Perfectly separate entity moves SW than turns north and follows H5-H3 pipeline into MA.

[OceanStWx]

Just part of the gumbo pot of solutions. You can see what it does. Perfectly separate entity moves SW than turns north and follows H5-H3 pipeline into MA.

 

What a difference a day makes. The GFS doesn't dig as deep into the Bahamas and starts tickling north between 48 and 60 hours, the Euro makes landfall in the Bahamas and doesn't start moving north until around 72-84 hours.

[CoastalWx]

What a difference a day makes. The GFS doesn't dig as deep into the Bahamas and starts tickling north between 48 and 60 hours, the Euro makes landfall in the Bahamas and doesn't start moving north until around 72-84 hours.

If it gets act together, they sometimes don't like to go south in mid latitudes. Will be interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

Move the gfs north 200 miles and alot of people would be happy

lol no