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We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Models are all over the place with Joaquin now. About the only thing I'm confident in is that we won't see a GEM scenario of pinwheeling lows tumbling into the East Coast.

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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One thing is for sure, the ensemble precip guidance is impressive for heavy rainfall.

 

SREF is over 70% chance for 24 hour rainfall over 3 inches up here in NNE. The Euro EPS actually has some > 50% probabilities for total rainfall over 8 inches, and greater than 70% chance of 24 hour rainfall over 2 inches in round 1.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Saw that. And 55 mph surface winds. LLC seems to be tucking under the convection again like yesterday. Will be following the diurnal maximum with great interest tonight. The convection has been very persistent given the shear.

 

I was just listening to the conference call and can't even remember what they decided on for intensity for the next update, but considering they had it at 45 knots by 00z, that seems like a reasonable place to start.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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SPC WRF also has that blob with meso low separate from front.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/

 

 

That's a ton of theta-e getting advected north on the east side of this...so we definitely have to watch for some localized qpf bombs. Could be one of those things where some training happens and someone gets 6" of rain but 10 miles away is more mundane like 1-1.5"

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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That's a ton of theta-e getting advected north on the east side of this...so we definitely have to watch for some localized qpf bombs. Could be one of those things where some training happens and someone gets 6" of rain but 10 miles away is more mundane like 1-1.5"

 

Yeah I can buy that, but just a matter of where it goes. Boy what a commute disaster if that happens lol.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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That's a ton of theta-e getting advected north on the east side of this...so we definitely have to watch for some localized qpf bombs. Could be one of those things where some training happens and someone gets 6" of rain but 10 miles away is more mundane like 1-1.5"

 

This is when I wish we had higher resolution ECMWF data at the office, things look awfully blocky at 80 km when you are trying to diagnose theta-e axes.

 

But based on what I have available, a nice ridge pokes into SNE at 12z, right on that NE MA/SE NH area.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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Question for you Mets.  Joaquins convection seems to be exploding to the NW.  Deeper system more NW, shallow system more WSW?  Wouldn't the LLC try to stay under the deeper convection?  If shear is relaxing and convection is moving NW I (as a non Met) might guess that the system will have a more northerly component in its general west track.  This might give the models that keep it further west more credence than if the system had stayed weaker longer.  Maybe I'm just reaching here but subtle changes of where it is could be big track differences down the line? 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Question for you Mets.  Joaquins convection seems to be exploding to the NW.  Deeper system more NW, shallow system more WSW?  Wouldn't the LLC try to stay under the deeper convection?  If shear is relaxing and convection is moving NW I (as a non Met) might guess that the system will have a more northerly component in its general west track.  This might give the models that keep it further west more credence than if the system had stayed weaker longer.  Maybe I'm just reaching here but subtle changes of where it is could be big track differences down the line? 

 

I mean they had a good fix on the center since it was exposed, so this convection is really just catching up to where the models already put the center. I'm not sure what we're seeing now isn't what was already forecast for this evening.

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