We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[TalcottWx]

Through 42 it's further NW with the PRE rain max. The low is deeper and slightly south compared to 12z with Joaquin.

[TalcottWx]

BDL to Berks to NNE to Western and Coastal Maine have rain max with 0z from PRE. 

[dmillz25]

How does the NYC area look so far? Asking only because everyone seems to be asleep lol

[TalcottWx]

48-54 the system actually jogs sw for 6 hours. 989mb east of nassau

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:08 AM, sbos_wx said:

BDL to Berks to NNE to Western and Coastal Maine have rain max with 0z from PRE.

Yeah, but that max is 3-5" with locally up to 7" Maine coastal areas. Important to note that everyone gets over 2" from the first round from BTV to PVD and everywhere inbetween.

[TalcottWx]

at 72 its 975mb sitting over the Bahamas. Further south than 12z. 12z was also only 998mb.

[powderfreak]

Man at 72hrs that is a beast at 975mb SW of Florida.

[TalcottWx]

If this energy sweeping through the trough doesn't interact  in the correct manner, the slower moving further south system.... it might kick out to sea on us

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:13 AM, sbos_wx said:

at 72 its 975mb sitting over the Bahamas. Further south than 12z. 12z was also only 998mb.

WTF is it doing? 967mb still over the Bahamas at 84 hours.

961mb at 90hrs.

Stalled and incredibly deep system still SW of Florida.

[TalcottWx]

78-90hr it moves ne ever so slowly. Deep at 961mb! Well SE of 12z in it's 72hr position.

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:15 AM, powderfreak said:

WTF is it doing? 967mb still over the Bahamas at 84 hours.

961mb at 90hrs.

Stalled and incredibly deep system still SW of Florida.

Looking at 500mb trof I wonder if it kicks instead of gobbing up the storm.

[AvantHiatus]

I don't think an out to sea solution is at play due to the semi-permanent blocking high over SE Canada, but if it slows down enough SE coast be in play.

[dmillz25]

Sounds like a weird Euro run so far

[TalcottWx]

at 96hr rain is starting on the east coast. Looks like heavier precip there is slightly SE of 12z comparatively. Low is moving NE. 960mb.

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:17 AM, AvantHiatus said:

I don't think an out to sea solution is at play due to the semi-permanent blocking high over SE Canada, but if it slows down enough SE coast be in play.

I would agree but it's notably further south, deeper, slower than 12z.

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:17 AM, sbos_wx said:

Looking at 500mb trof I wonder if it kicks instead of gobbing up the storm.

Yeah it is way south at similar times compared with 12z...but now moisture getting sucked up so may be delayed, not denied.

Hr 102 is now 950s millibar still in the Bahamas.

I think the Mid-Atlantic is going to drown this run.

[TalcottWx]

958mb moving NE at 102 slowly still. Heavy rains for mid atlantic particularly VA, NC.

[TalcottWx]

961mb and picking up steam heading NE at 108hr. It's definitely interacting with the trof. The trof is also noticeably further south than 12z. Going to be a weird solution. (Already is)

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:19 AM, sbos_wx said:

I would agree but it's notably further south, deeper, slower than 12z.

Yeah tropical storm now going due east from the Bahamas...that's not hitting. But still huge rains in the mid-Atlantic.

The pressures are so low that 995mb now coming ashore in the Carolinas, but only part of the deeper 959mb system hundreds of miles SE.

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:23 AM, powderfreak said:

Yeah tropical storm now going due east from the Bahamas...that's not hitting. But still huge rains in the mid-Atlantic.

IDK... I'd wait. There is still blocking ahead of that. If it interacts it might pinball backward (a la 12z) but it could be very well out to sea.

[powderfreak]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:24 AM, sbos_wx said:

IDK... I'd wait. There is still blocking ahead of that. If it interacts it might pinball backward (a la 12z) but it could be very well out to sea.

Yeah this is going to be pretty crazy. It's trying to pinwheel back. But definitely hundreds of miles SE of 12z at same time.

[TalcottWx]

965mb @ 126 and heading NE still. Slightly more northerly with its direction. Way off from 12z.

[AvantHiatus]

  On 9/29/2015 at 6:26 AM, powderfreak said:

Yeah this is going to be pretty crazy. It's trying to pinwheel back. But definitely hundreds of miles SE of 12z at same time.

Our options closed on us once the system got so far SW and 500mb trough blocked it from hitting the SE. Been a no escape situation for many days now.

[dmillz25]

This Euro run sounds nuts

[TalcottWx]

964mb just west of the Bahamas at 132. Keep in mind a ton of rain has been falling the past few frames over NC/VA.

[TalcottWx]

962mb and moving north at 138.. Weird stuff going on. Powderfreak will agree this scenario is tossed. Strung out and crazy looking.

[powderfreak]

The duration of easterly flow along the entire seaboard is impressive...no rain has fallen in New England from like hour 48-132. But it created a huge gyre in the western Atlantic. Huge swell probably.

[TalcottWx]

Never captured by the trof. It looked like exit stage right at 144hr. Too slow, doesn't interact with trof, and kicks out to sea.

[AvantHiatus]

That's a massive difference tho compared to other models.

[TalcottWx]

A foot of rain in the mountains of NC and SC. 7-10" generalized VA. 4inches DC. 3 inches BWI. Newport News 8 inches. 2-4" SNE. Around same for NYC area.