We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 10:32 PM, UnionWeatherWx said:

Overall, everyone gets a good drink.

under state of the year

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

GFS and EURO develop a large upper level anticyclone over TD11 within the next 24-48 hours and it travels well with the depression throughout its life cycle.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

TD11 looks to be getting better organized as it dips southwestward towards a better environment.

[dendrite]

  On 9/28/2015 at 10:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

under state of the year

QPF worries for Shelburne?

[CoastalWx]

Ha. I don't need 12". Enjoy the floods.

[moneypitmike]

  On 9/28/2015 at 10:53 PM, dendrite said:

QPF worries for Shelburne?

 

I was just feeling a little angst by the sharp drop-off there.  lol

 

I'm switching up my work week this week so will be coming into Boston on Wednesday instead of Thursday.  I can only imagine it will suck beginning my drive at 4:45a.m. Wednesday.  Correction--suck more than the other mornings I leave at 4:45.

[IsentropicLift]

  On 9/28/2015 at 10:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Well let's be honest.. Noone saw this coming 2 days ago.Noone on this board..So lets not get crazy .and slap weens

Several NYC posters highlighted this potential over the weekend. I was laughed at last Friday when the Euro went nuts.

[IsentropicLift]

18z HWRF takes her down into the 940's by hr 72.

[CoastalWx]

I would just like a few inches and 40mph wind. I don't know how anyone wants 12" of rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm sure it will modify and relax a bit. But dang.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

I would just like a few inches and 40mph wind. I don't know how anyone wants 12" of rain.

I would like 60+ wind gusts and 2 inches of rain. That isn't too much to ask

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

I would just like a few inches and 40mph wind. I don't know how anyone wants 12" of rain.

Because it's wicked extreme man. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:20 PM, IsentropicLift said:

18z HWRF takes her down into the 940's by hr 72.

That's not even worth the space you took to type

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:49 PM, Ginx snewx said:

That's not even worth the space you took to type

Like talking about this drought. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:45 PM, sbos_wx said:

Because it's wicked extreme man. 

 

Own a home and see how you feel. LOL. I know what you mean, but no thanks. I heard horror stories from this area in the March 2010 floods.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

Own a home and see how you feel. LOL. I know what you mean, but no thanks. I heard horror stories from this area in the March 2010 floods.

or run a facility, I am all set

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 months of dry gone in a week

My basement will be soggy. I hate that

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 11:52 PM, CoastalWx said:

Own a home and see how you feel. LOL. I know what you mean, but no thanks. I heard horror stories from this area in the March 2010 floods.

Being an only child I cherish the Southie house. Believe me; not rooting anything on tremendously dangerous. Just poking fun.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I would rather have damaging winds than torrential rains to be honest.  We rarely get house damaging winds here let alone flooding rains.  80mph winds would be devastating with the amount of leaves on the trees still.  If the HWRF shows a 940mb hurricane there has to be a good reason.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

were the rivers low before irene

It didn't matter. Too much too fast that day in WNE.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

TD11 showing signs of strengthening currently with very deep convection developing on south side of low level circulation which is moving into deeper and warmer waters.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/29/2015 at 12:06 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

TD11 showing signs of strengthening currently with very deep convection developing on south side of low level circulation which is moving into deeper and warmer waters.

Look at that shear over the GS

[moneypitmike]

She's a beaut Clark.

 

 

[JC-CT]

  On 9/29/2015 at 12:04 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

If the HWRF shows a 940mb hurricane there has to be a good reason.

Because it is a hurricane-happy hurricane model?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Kevin, that shear will relax and move northwestward as the trough becomes amplified over SC and NC.  The flow backs towards the southeast rather than southwest and an upper level anticyclone parks itself over the cyclone within 48 hours.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

  On 9/29/2015 at 12:12 AM, JC-CT said:

Because it is a hurricane-happy hurricane model?

 

Even though the GFDL shows that happening as well?

[CoastalWx]

Just like the CAT II it had for Erika. HWRF is HBARF. 

[JC-CT]

  On 9/29/2015 at 12:12 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Even though the GFDL shows that happening as well?

Yes

[Sn0waddict]

  On 9/29/2015 at 12:04 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I would rather have damaging winds than torrential rains to be honest.  We rarely get house damaging winds here let alone flooding rains.  80mph winds would be devastating with the amount of leaves on the trees still.  If the HWRF shows a 940mb hurricane there has to be a good reason.

No it doesn't. it ALWAYS shows a monster hurricane, its absolute garbage.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

TD11 has dropped southward over the last three hours now underneath the convection, or on the very edge of the convection currently.