We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[Damage In Tolland]

It seems like we've got a couple of things on the pro side to get this thing up into or just west of SNE..Blocking high in atlantic..-NAO... the one thing missing though is a deep midwest trough

[West Point, NY]

  On 9/28/2015 at 7:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I'd give up all the rain if we could get some good damaging winds in here

To hell with all the people you claim have wells running dry. As long as you satisfy your weather fetish du jour.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 9/28/2015 at 7:14 PM, West Mtn NY said:

To hell with all the people you claim have wells running dry. As long as you satisfy your weather fetish du jour.

With any luck a tree will fall right onto your snow mobiles

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 9/28/2015 at 7:14 PM, West Mtn NY said:

To hell with all the people you claim have wells running dry. As long as you satisfy your weather fetish du jour.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

This has potential, maybe a new avatar pic if I'm lucky.

[IsentropicLift]

  On 9/28/2015 at 7:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like we've got a couple of things on the pro side to get this thing up into or just west of SNE..Blocking high in atlantic..-NAO... the one thing missing though is a deep midwest trough

How much deeper would you like it to be?

 

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 7:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I'd give up all the rain if we could get some good damaging winds in here

lol you are something else

[Whineminster]

Well when's the last time we had some widespread substantial damaging winds in the interior of SNE? Sandy? Maybe some random FROPA? 

[nutmegfriar]

Ugh.  Late summer/early autumn major storms are hell in the woods.  Hunters, hikers and leaf-peepers will have to beware.  But, it IS bonfire season!

[kdxken]

A little too late.

 

"For at least the past three years, the Cape has been classified in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Drought Monitor as being in a predrought condition by summer’s end. Drought helps moths by reducing the numbers of parasites and diseases. Gypsy moths have, in part, been held in check for 30 years by a fungus that destroyed larvae and a virus that kills caterpillars when population densities are high. But the dry conditions inhibit the growth of the fungus, and gypsy moths are back as major defoliators."

 

http://www.capecodtimes.com/article/20150928/NEWS/150929489

[OceanStWx]

NHC tugged the track farther west thanks to the Euro, and bumped intensity up to 45 knots (now tropical until 120 hours too instead of post-tropical).

[TalcottWx]

I am now locked in and back. Fall is starting. Time to get geared back up. This event will be a nice start.

[Damage In Tolland]

I haven't been this excited since sometime in Feb. Wx is back .

So many times these prolific progged rainers don't pan out except for a few covered bridges or something. Hopefully the rain and wind do perform

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles are all over the place it seems. 

[CoastalWx]

The EC ensembles have a staggering 5-6"+ estimated through the weekend in SNE. 

[nutmegfriar]

 

 

This much rain will be tough for some folks to swallow.

[TalcottWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

The euro ensembles are all over the place it seems.

No surprise there. Seems like low probs for strong system or significant impact but big rain amounts likely. Potentially localized serious flooding. Hopefully we see it intensify but who knows.

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven't been this excited since sometime in Feb. Wx is back .

So many times these prolific progged rainers don't pan out except for a few covered bridges or something. Hopefully the rain and wind do perform

lol wut?

The rain will perform, I wouldn't hold out for damaging winds. Just start building the ark.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:11 PM, nutmegfriar said:

lol, really sticks out, hard rain gonna fall

This much rain will be tough for some folks to swallow.

[dendrite]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:17 PM, powderfreak said:

lol wut?

The rain will perform, I wouldn't hold out for damaging winds. Just start building the ark.

Dry begets wet

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:23 PM, dendrite said:

Dry begets wet

image.jpg

GEFS looks the same

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

The EC ensembles have a staggering 5-6"+ estimated through the weekend in SNE.

When can you remember the ECM ensembles having 5"+ over all of SNE through day 8? There's even weenie 7-8" amounts along the East Slopes of Berks and Litchfield Hills.

That's an ensemble MEAN too! Good grief.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said:

When can you remember the ECM ensembles having 5"+ over all of SNE through day 8? There's even weenie 7-8" amounts along the East Slopes of Berks and Litchfield Hills.

were the rivers low before irene

[jbenedet]

You can clearly see the split in the consensus. If this transitions from tropical to extra-tropical, early, and bends back, it's going to the Mid Atlandtic. If not, this rides along a cold front.

The intensity of the dynamics associated with the upper level trough need to be monitored most closely going forward...

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

were the rivers low before irene

Yes. I don't remember anything noteworthy. It was August, usually low flow time anyway.

But Irene was also 4-7" in like 18 hours, not multiple events over days. But it might not matter anyway if someone gets 10" in two events over 6 days.

[OceanStWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

The EC ensembles have a staggering 5-6"+ estimated through the weekend in SNE. 

 

For round one alone the ensembles are like 50-60% chance that all of SNE sees at least 2 inches of QPF. That's pretty solid agreement for a such a large amount of rainfall.

 

And a greater than 80% chance for at least 4 inches through day 7.

[CoastalWx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:24 PM, powderfreak said:

When can you remember the ECM ensembles having 5"+ over all of SNE through day 8? There's even weenie 7-8" amounts along the East Slopes of Berks and Litchfield Hills.

That's an ensemble MEAN too! Good grief.

 

 

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:29 PM, OceanStWx said:

For round one alone the ensembles are like 50-60% chance that all of SNE sees at least 2 inches of QPF. That's pretty solid agreement for a such a large amount of rainfall.

 

And a greater than 80% chance for at least 4 inches through day 7.

 

One hell of a signal for sure....at least right now.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:29 PM, powderfreak said:

Yes. I don't remember anything noteworthy. It was August, usually low flow time anyway.

But Irene was also 4-7" in like 18 hours, not multiple events over days. But it might not matter anyway if someone gets 10" in 6 days.

pre loads then flow then flood as depicted

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:29 PM, OceanStWx said:

For round one alone the ensembles are like 50-60% chance that all of SNE sees at least 2 inches of QPF. That's pretty solid agreement for a such a large amount of rainfall.

And a greater than 80% chance for at least 4 inches through day 7.

Insane. I'd lean towards the first event priming the hydo concerns but without widespread flooding. Then all hell breaks loose once the second event tosses 3-5" on top of the 2-3" that fell a few days earlier.

[powderfreak]

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:30 PM, Ginx snewx said:

pre loads then flow then flood as depicted

  On 9/28/2015 at 9:32 PM, powderfreak said:

Insane. I'd lean towards the first event priming the hydo concerns but without widespread flooding. Then all hell breaks loose once the second event tosses 3-5" on top of the 2-3" that fell a few days earlier.

Haha same thinking...first primes the pump, second one floats the arks.