IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hard to tell off of what I have but looks like the 00z GGEM cuts off the ULL similar to the Euro. Prolific rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 With many rivers to north of NYC/li being below normal, I wonder if we will see mass flooding similar to Irene north of us. If that happens, I'll surely be heading upstate to help out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol 4-5 sigma PWAT values in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:33 AM, wthrmn654 said: With many rivers to north of NYC/li being below normal, I wonder if we will see mass flooding similar to Irene north of us. If that happens, I'll surely be heading upstate to help out again Irene was devastating for many of us up here.. FEMA was all over here for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GGEM phases Ida and Joaquin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 00z GGEM is 2-3" for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:35 AM, Snow88 said: GGEM phases Ida and Joaquin One of the craziest Fujiwara setups you will ever see. All the rain misses and goes towards New England. Uncle GGEM on crack as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 0z Ukie at 144http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Wow. That looks like it's heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:48 AM, Snow88 said: 0z Ukie at 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Wow. That looks like it's heading our way. Now that's intriguing. The first global to really deepen the TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00z HWRF at it again. 952mb by 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin looks like it's really getting going now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:27 AM, dmillz25 said: Joaquin looks like it's really getting going now You can still see the center of circulation just north of the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:38 AM, tmagan said: You can still see the center of circulation just north of the CDO. From how it was 12 hours ago it definitely looks better. It isn't the best looking one but it's getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Based on shear forecasts, Wed-Thu look to be the best days for any strengthening. I don't see it becoming a hurricane but could certainly get in the 60-65mph range eventually. It might even brush or impact N.C as it heads north. Regardless the rains look substantial no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 00Z GFDL has a Sandy-like hook back toward the coast, with NJ landfall near Long Beach Island as a TS or minimal Cat 1. HWRF has not quite so sharp a hook, with landfall farther up the coast near Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And then there's the 00Z ECMWF...well SE of Cape Cod Sunday evening as the SE upper low is more dominant...but plowing right into or sneaking under the Western Atlantic ridge? Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 6:41 AM, billgwx said: And then there's the 00Z ECMWF...well SE of Cape Cod Sunday evening as the SE upper low is more dominant...but plowing right into the Western Atlantic ridge? Good grief Yeah very weird run. Tossed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 00Z RGEM ensemble MSLP spread valid 00Z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 6:42 AM, dmillz25 said: Yeah very weird run. Tossed? Yes very weird. If the 00Z Euro's forecast along the East Coast gets that amplified, with the Western Atlantic ridge retrograding to north of the closed low along the Southeast coast, maybe it could sneak underneath. We'd still get a decent nor'easter with lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 6:41 AM, billgwx said: And then there's the 00Z ECMWF...well SE of Cape Cod Sunday evening as the SE upper low is more dominant...but plowing right into or sneaking under the Western Atlantic ridge? Good grief At first thought, I was surprised the Euro wavered like this, considering how great it was with Sandy, with regard to run to run model consistency. But--and I can't believe I'm going to to say this-- this setup is actually more complicated than with Sandy. For one we have a closed ULL over the SE, as oppose to the deep "clean" upper level trough we saw with Sandy. Secondly, Sandy was a "steady-state" mature hurricane as it approached the CONUS and the upper level dynamics. Joaquin's future intensity remains very much in question. Will she be a poorly defined tropical system, or a strengthening hurricane, as the trough approaches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 6:53 AM, billgwx said: Yes very weird. If the 00Z Euro's forecast along the East Coast gets that amplified, with the Western Atlantic ridge retrograding to north of the closed low along the Southeast coast, maybe it could sneak underneath. We'd still get a decent nor'easter with lots of rain. Understandable. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 6:56 AM, jbenedet said: At first thought, I was surprised the Euro wavered like this, considering how great it was with Sandy, with regard to run to run model consistency. But--and I can't believe I'm going to to say this-- this setup is actually more complicated than with Sandy. For one we have a closed ULL over the SE, as oppose to the deep "clean" upper level trough we saw with Sandy. Secondly, Sandy was a "steady-state" mature hurricane as it approached the CONUS and the upper level dynamics. Joaquin's future intensity remains very much in question. Will she be a poorly defined tropical system, or a strengthening hurricane, as the trough approaches? Yes, I agree this is a more complicated scenario. Models look like they're having trouble resolving between Joaquin and the coastal storm that is likely to form even if Joaquin weren't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Euro is OTS with Joaquin, about 3" of rain for most people through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 The EPS agree on a slow W track into the Bahamas through 84 hrs and then show every possible track under the sun after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Heavy rain , continues to be the story , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 11:06 AM, PB GFI said: Heavy rain , continues to be the story , The EPS were also very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Tropical models hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 11:27 AM, jets said: Tropical models hold serve An infamous MET thinks the Euro is wrong and this is a Hurricane with a strike just to our S when all is said and done FWIW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 11:27 AM, jets said: Tropical models hold serveWell, except for the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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