Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46962-tropical-storm-joaquin/#entry3697472 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46962-tropical-storm-joaquin/#entry3697472 AmerWx as a whole has become very regional this year. You don't have a cat 3 bearing down on Miami so the interest level simply isn't there on a national level. Now if the system really blows up, that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Which formed east of Bermuda? Sigh. Learn your NE tropical cyclone history! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sigh. Learn your NE tropical cyclone history! You're talking about 1985 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 11PM advisory increased the intensity forecast substantially. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 11PM advisory increased the intensity forecast substantially. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH If the shear relaxes on this for a while, I could see this becoming a hurricane, though I doubt higher than Cat 1 due to the eventual interaction with the trough. Although, the waters under it are essentially untouched and above normal SST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That strengthening and those coordinates are pretty alarming for nj/NYC. Basically a strengthening tropical system moving n/nw towards the coast of megalopolis. Warm waters underneath it, strengthening interaction with trough to the west and an already moisture laden area from the frontal rains and tropical fetch and onshore flow. Major issues with flooding rain and potentially devastating effects to beaches and coastal regions . the block to the north gives this serious legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Most of this falls tomorrow evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 00z GFS is still on the NW periphery of the guidance envelope for tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sigh. Learn your NE tropical cyclone history! Before my time and outside of my research focus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 00z GFS is still on the NW periphery of the guidance envelope for tomorrow evening.I have a feeling SNJ is going to be the bullseye again. That's just going on history. This seems like a slowcoastal higher than a Sandy Monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Wonder what the crazy ggem has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I have a feeling SNJ is going to be the bullseye again. If you don't want to count Sandy as a hurricane hit...this thing arriving as a hurricane in S Jersey (i.e. a landfalling hurricane) would be the 1st since September 1821. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Coast gets crushed at 93 hours. Very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Coast gets crushed at 93 hours. Very heavy rain. What model? More details ant. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What model? More details ant. Thanks It's the GFS. crushes the entire area from hours 81 through at least 108 which I am out to. Going to be 10"+ this run easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This things going be interesting, if it does make landfall in Jersey, how similar to Sandy location wise. Many areas while repaired, are still quite vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What a fire hose into the metro area on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS is strung out with the tropical low but wow, the feed for this storm on the GFS is insane for a lot of areas. Still going at 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Imagine all of the tropical moisture involved with the TS being stretched out into a relatively narrow, but intense band of rain, then point it right at NJ and NY and that pretty much sums up the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TS is barely discernible this run on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NYC and LI are 10"+ this run. Everyone else is 8"+. And that is with tomorrow night missing NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the GFS this run is overdoing how much rain it has east of the track. A landfalling storm in S NJ or DE would have much more rain over PA and along/west of the track. I can't remember a strong landfalling system in the Northeast or that tracked through the Northeast with the heavy rain axis east of the center. That of course doesn't stop a lot of rain with the front coming through or back through from the east like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Wow at 123 hours. 2nd low is crashing into the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Verbatim the 00z gfs would be historic flooding for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 At 129, NYC is still getting crushed by a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 TS is barely discernible this run on the GFS. It's been like that for several runs. The GFS has never really bought into the idea of strengthening Joaquin. We need the trough to cut off so that the anti-cyclone forms overhead and then the shear would disappear. Then you roll the dice with regards to where the landfall occurs and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And the GFS would be horrendous from a coastal flood/beach erosion standpoint with such a strong SE fetch into NY Harbor and the NJ/LI shores for such a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 One last wallop on Saturday night as the system beings lifting North. 9"+ back to Western Morris County. 10-12" for NYC and LI. 12"+ for the NJ coast from Sandy Hook South. LOL I feel like I should be giving snow totals. And that is just with the second system. As mentioned, it has most of tomorrow night passing NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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