Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 March 2010 seems about right. Downed trees for days. and that was bare trees...that event now would bring down many more given the full foliage with the late start to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 and that was bare trees...that event now would bring down many more given the full foliage with the late start to fall. There has been a significant cull of vulnerable trees with a large number of recent high wind / ice / early snow events, beginning with March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Fairly strong consensus on the new 00z guidance for landfall in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If the 18z GFS intensity is correct then surface winds won't be that much of an issue. Currently the GFS is at the lower end of the intensity guidance forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Not to mention this incredible drought has stressed the trees quite extensively, weakening many. An event like 92 could be worse now. and that was bare trees...that event now would bring down many more given the full foliage with the late start to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Not to mention this incredible drought has stressed the trees quite extensively, weakening many. An event like 92 could be worse now. It hasn't been an "incredible drought" in the NYC area-the worst drought status in the Northeast is moderate drought, and that covers most in this subforum but not beyond there. This'll bring a lot of rain to someone, most likely to the left of the track. So that would favor E PA/NJ now (tropical systems usually bring much more rain left of their tracks in the Northeast due to interactions with fronts/colder continental air), but this is still days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I could see something like March 2010 or December 92 possibly. On the higher end yes. And if you're home flooded then you should have either raised your home by now or sold to the gov. Think freeport an lindenhurst and the west end of long beach. Areas where houses were built less then 3' above sea level Wind wise 2011 or 92 would be bad with trees in full leaf. I could see 200k power outage on Long island with gusts in the 70s. Dry soil and the cull from Sandy prevent anything worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Not to get off topic, True, further east you go, the density of trees increases, Suffolk for example, where moderate drought with 7-9 inches below normal. With many trees dropping leaves/dying. It hasn't been an "incredible drought" in the NYC area-the worst drought status in the Northeast is moderate drought, and that covers most in this subforum but not beyond there. This'll bring a lot of rain to someone, most likely to the left of the track. So that would favor E PA/NJ now (tropical systems usually bring much more rain left of their tracks in the Northeast due to interactions with fronts/colder continental air), but this is still days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Convection increasing nicely with the diurnal maximum. This will probably be upgraded at 11PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 You read my mind, was just looking at the ir loop and water vapor. It's getting better organized it appears Convection increasing nicely with the diurnal maximum. This will probably be upgraded at 11PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It appears the LLC is either just on the edge of the convection or already sliding back toward the MLC. This isn't a terrible looking system anymore and it's over some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. Thankfully the UL environment won't support anything too insane. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 With regards to invest 99-L in the gulf, will be linking up with the weekend system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It appears the LLC is either just on the edge of the convection or already sliding back toward the MLC. This isn't a terrible looking system anymore and it's over some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. Thankfully the UL environment won't support anything too insane. Sent from my SM-G925V I don't think anyone can judge without a visable. If the center is truly under the convection it's a tropical storm if not its just another mess. I think the big improvements come later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Bernio Rayno did an excellent video at 6PM. He was explaining that if the ULL cuts off like the ECMWF shows it would develop an anti-cyclone to the North which would basically eliminate the shear completely. That combined with warm SST's would be enough to strengthen TD 11 significantly, possibly into a high end TS or even a hurricane. If the ULL doesn't close off, the Northerly winds would persist and thus the system would probably remain much weaker. Either way, he said a prolific rainmaker is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 With regards to invest 99-L in the gulf, will be linking up with the weekend system? Yes, that is part of the moisture that we will be receiving over the next 2-3 days. TD #11 would be a secondary entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't think anyone can judge without a visable. If the center is truly under the convection it's a tropical storm if not its just another mess. I think the big improvements come later I think it looks quite good right now and we've seen far worse systems that were classified as TS this year. Yes it'll probably get better but there's already evidence of good outflow developing on the south and SW part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't think anyone can judge without a visable. If the center is truly under the convection it's a tropical storm if not its just another mess. I think the big improvements come laterIt was pretty easy to see it sliding south into the convection as daylight faded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't think anyone can judge without a visable. If the center is truly under the convection it's a tropical storm if not its just another mess. I think the big improvements come later I think the SAB can judge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We now have Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1120151100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN......THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...26.7N 70.4WABOUT 400 MI...645 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activityassociated with the depression has increased and become better organized during the past several hours. In addition, the low-level center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin. This intensity analysis also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today that showed winds just under tropical-storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Makes sense. Was already at T2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Man. there is like a 250mi by 250 mi box for TC genesis during a strong Nino that can actually survive and threaten the EC, and this sucker formed in that box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Man. there is like a 250mi by 250 mi box for TC genesis during a strong Nino that can actually survive and threaten the EC, and this sucker formed in that box. If that ULAC forms, then we could be dealing with a Hurricane. Like I said earlier, still a ton of moving parts and lots of time to figure it all out, but this one has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If that ULAC forms, then we could be dealing with a Hurricane. Like I said earlier, still a ton of moving parts and lots of time to figure it all out, but this one has potential. Sure. But we could also be dealing with another TS Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sure. But we could also be dealing with another TS Henri. Which formed east of Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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