bluewave Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 This is a very extreme PNA rebound block setting this pattern up. Can't remember the last time that I saw the PNA make such an extreme rise in just a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Happy hour gfs brings the costal into South east NJ...epic rains for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol 18z gfs has the metro area with over a foot of rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol 18z gfs has the metro area with over a foot of rain lol How are the winds looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 How are the winds looking? The storm itself is much weaker probably due to being absorbed into the front but it's still has some impressive onshore winds for the coast. Would also cause coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 12z Euro winds are about 40-50mph inland and 50-60mph along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Any storm surge?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Any storm surge?? Definitely would see coastal flooding in that type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Definitely would see coastal flooding in that type of set up.thanks not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 18z GFS shows a bullseye over NYC, Central Long Island (8-12"). Less rain to the west (5-8" for EWR, 4-7" for MMU) through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The max bullseye on the 18z GFS is 30.7" of rain per SV maps. Hard to tell exact location of that since the max countour is 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 18z GEFS mean is 4-6"+ just through 120hrs with more rain still to come. Looks like landfall for TD 11 somewhere on the NJ or NY coast late day 5 or early day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 18z RGEM has 2.5-5" of rain just through 48 hours. Most of which falls beyond hr 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 18z HWRF already down to 931mb by 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 NSFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Check out the individual 18z GFS ensembles....whoa. A few of them now show that EURO phase job scenario for the MidAtlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 GFDL shows the Euro-esque phase so much so that it doesn't even make landfall through 126 hours. 12z GFDL ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z GFS totals per GFS text soundings. These numbers include the entire event. LGA - 14.32" KISP - 9.62" KJFK - 14.89" KEWR - 10.07" KBDL - 8.12" KMMU - 5.93" KSWF - 10.80" KTTN - 2.77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 6-8" on the 18z GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll say at this juncture the pattern looks concerning. Strong, possibly closed off blocking high to the northeast of future-Joaquin which would prevent a slide out to sea, and a possible strong trough diving in west of the storm which could at least draw it into the coast, if not a full capture/phase like Sandy. The Euro captures/phases Joaquin right in and slams it onshore seemingly near the VA capes, while the GFS is more modest with the trough interaction to the west and allows more of a northerly track into Long Island. I don't think this would be as powerful as Sandy was, given how much bigger and stronger Sandy was vs. Joaquin. Sandy was at one brief point a Cat 3 and was massive in size the whole way through (part of what made Sandy so devastating was its size), while Joaquin looks to max out maybe as a strong tropical storm and would certainly have strong wind near and east of where it makes landfall, but wouldn't stall out like Sandy and be more of a heavy rain threat along and west of the track. Anyway, definitely something to watch over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 To me this is starting to look like an extreme event in the way of rainfall somewhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod, It is still way to early for any more specifics. A stalled front with a moisture conduit from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic with strong upper level support. This year is turning into one historic weather event after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sandy was briefly a CAT 2 near landfall, before going extra tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 To me this is starting to look like an extreme event in the way of rainfall somewhere between North Carolina and Cape Cod, It is still way to early for any more specifics. A stalled front with a moisture conduit from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic with strong upper level support. This year is turning into one historic weather event after another. Don't forget Marty, which is also feeding moisture into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This is a very extreme PNA rebound block setting this pattern up. Can't remember the last time that I saw the PNA make such an extreme rise in just a few days. pna.sprd2.gif Does this PNA spike help to strengthen the northeast canadian ridge or the western ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll say at this juncture the pattern looks concerning. Strong, possibly closed off blocking high to the northeast of future-Joaquin which would prevent a slide out to sea, and a possible strong trough diving in west of the storm which could at least draw it into the coast, if not a full capture/phase like Sandy. The Euro captures/phases Joaquin right in and slams it onshore seemingly near the VA capes, while the GFS is more modest with the trough interaction to the west and allows more of a northerly track into Long Island. I don't think this would be as powerful as Sandy was, given how much bigger and stronger Sandy was vs. Joaquin. Sandy was at one brief point a Cat 3 and was massive in size the whole way through (part of what made Sandy so devastating was its size), while Joaquin looks to max out maybe as a strong tropical storm and would certainly have strong wind near and east of where it makes landfall, but wouldn't stall out like Sandy and be more of a heavy rain threat along and west of the track. Anyway, definitely something to watch over the next few days. There is no way this is even in the league of Sandy. We aren't going from weak naked deppression to massive cat 2. It's also earlier in the season which means less baroclinicity to work with. I see at worst a high end tropical storm hybrid type event. Coastal wise a one in 5-10 year event. Anyone that's home floods from that should have raised or sold. Rain wise this could be bad somewhere and this will most likely be remembered for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There is no way this is even in the league of Sandy. We aren't going from weak naked deppression to massive cat 2. It's also earlier in the season which means less baroclinicity to work with. I see at worst a high end tropical storm hybrid type event. Coastal wise a one in 5-10 year event. Anyone that's home floods from that should have raised or sold. Rain wise this could be bad somewhere and this will most likely be remembered for that I could see something like March 2010 or December 92 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 March 2010 seems about right. Downed trees for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 March 2010 is my second favorite rain storm all time after Irene. Even the craptastic DGEX agrees. When is the last time we had such fantastic model agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Man, every frame of the IR sat looks more and more ominous. This is a TS already and the outflow is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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