Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Clearly evident on the euro that we will have a big rain maker this run on the weekend Out to hr 99 and the area is approaching 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Clearly evident on the euro that we will have a big rain maker this run on the weekend Out to hr 99 and the area is approaching 5 inches Yup, huge slug coming up the coast. This may be the wettest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yup, huge slug coming up the coast. This may be the wettest run yet. Enhanced rain from the tropical system up and down the east coast...if true and that's a big if will be some flooding issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Sheesh what a change of events from a few days ago. Boring weather no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 You have a massive closed low over N GA with a negatively tilted trough and the tropical system East of Florida. So the front gets tugged back towards the coast along with all of the tropical moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 What's that cheap jab supposed to mean? Stay on topic. There is no way a major hurricane is going to develop from TD 11 and make landfall on the NJ coast. The system is already under 25 knots of shear and conditions will be only slightly favorable for intensification. Sent from my SM-G925V It wasn't a cheap jab, it was meant to be a joke, but I guess you didn't catch my sense of humor. I think we all realize how unlikely that would be to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Enhanced rain from the tropical system up and down the east coast...if true and that's a big if will be some flooding issues The PRE goes into the Carolinas and VA, at least through day 5, but the TC is still coming North. BTW, the 12z Euro takes it down to 984mb by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The PRE goes into the Carolinas and VA, at least through day 5, but the TC is still coming North. BTW, the 12z Euro takes it down to 984mb by Saturday morning. Yep pretty strong system just off the outer banks Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This is going to be an extremely hard forecast for the models with all these moving parts. Don't be surprised if the solution changes drastically once again. And I apologize Iso. Didn't catch the sense of humor at first. Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yep pretty strong system just off the outer banks Sunday morning Slow mover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro slams a pretty strong system into se VA Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Euro makes a lefthook into the Chesapeake Bay at 986mb. 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This is going to be an extremely hard forecast for the models with all these moving parts. Don't be surprised if the solution changes drastically once again. And I apologize Iso. Didn't catch the sense of humor at first. Sent from my SM-G925V No problem, you're a very knowledgeable poster. I am a bit hesitant to bite on this myself, but seeing such a strong signal on the GEFS is increasing confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro leaves TD 11 behind and let's it strengthen in the Bahamas. Would leave a massive easterly flow open for the NE Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 5-8" rain totals on the Euro through 150 hrs and still raining, and that's with most of the tropical moisture going South of us. Their is a 20"+ bullseye in Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro leaves TD 11 behind and let's it strengthen in the Bahamas. Sent from my SM-G925V Eventually ends up in the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro is 8-10 inches of rain for the area, parts of the mid Atlantic get 12+ Obviously this is a very extreme run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro is 8-10 inches of rain for the area, parts of the mid Atlantic get 12+ Obviously this is a very extreme run Fits well with the recent progression of extended dry periods to end with a deluge and maybe then some. Looks like Thu may be the only dry day over the next 6. Lots of rainouts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Euro is 8-10 inches of rain for the area, parts of the mid Atlantic get 12+ Obviously this is a very extreme run Still raining on Monday with the remnant low East of Ocean City MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Fits well with the recent progression of extended dry periods to end with a deluge and maybe then some. Looks like Thu may be the only dry day over the next 6. Lots of rainouts... Also we would have issues with costal flooding at strong winds along the coast... The euro at 12z is pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 10m winds are up into the 40-50kt range Saturday night along the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 For posterity Seven day totals Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 what hour is that map? day 7 totals? Either way, wow. Drought buster plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 What model Is this? For posterity Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 We finally clear out late Tuesday night, as in over 8 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 What model Is this? That's the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 what hour is that map? day 7 totals? Either way, wow. Drought buster plus Wednesday-Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Fits well with the recent progression of extended dry periods to end with a deluge and maybe then some. Looks like Thu may be the only dry day over the next 6. Lots of rainouts... Tomorrow doesn't look bad either. Looks as if most of the rain holds off until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Tomorrow doesn't look bad either. Looks as if most of the rain holds off until tomorrow night. most models show a dry day tomorrow outside of a shower here or there. We'll add to our warm Sept totals with another much above normal day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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