IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 P007 purely for entertainment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The GGEM never disappoints. Another crazy, prolific run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This tropical disturbance might wreck havoc on some of these models however it looks very likely someone in the Northeast is going to get slammed with 5-10"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Lol Why is this LOL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 12z GGEM has a large area of 12"+ for coastal NJ, NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Why is this LOL? The NHC is way too fast with this and i'm good at seeing trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 yup epic flooding for alot of people if that were to happen The 12z GGEM has a large area of 12"+ for coastal NJ, NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This is not TD11, GGEM develops multiple systems. Fun to watch tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 12z GGEM has a large area of 12"+ for coastal NJ, NYC and LI. The GGEM never disappoints. Another crazy, prolific run. meh, it had us getting hammered today a few days ago with several inches of rain and yet it's partly cloudy and close to 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 meh, it had us getting hammered today a few days ago with several inches of rain and yet it's partly cloudy and close to 80 And it was an outlier the whole time. It may still be a bit of an outlier but not nearly by as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Why is this LOL? Bc I don't see this surviving the shear. It's probably not going to being a TS making landfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 If you had any doubts at all, check out the 12z GEFS mean. 4-5" of rain areawide through 120hrs. 6-7" for NE PA. By 168hrs it goes up to 6-7" for NE PA, NW NJ and the LHV up into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 And it was an outlier the whole time. It may still be a bit of an outlier but not nearly by as much. GFS ensemble member tracks are aggressive on 12z. The situation is rapidly deteriorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Bc I don't see this surviving the shear. It's probably not going to being a TS making landfall here. The NHC forecast has a weak TS at best. The official forecast calls for a decrease of shear in about 24-36 hours. And the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary which as we all know can induce strengthening if the LLJ is positioned favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Something not being talked about, the moisture in the Gulf is also going to be introduced into this. So you have the very slow moving frontal boundary, plus the Gulf moisture, and that's only for the first 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Well this is interesting. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 12z Euro is very wet. 2-3" of rain through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Well this is interesting. Sent from my SM-G925V It's really not that unusual to get a tropical system up here from that angle. It's not even close to the anomaly the Sandy track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Forky said it could end up being further west than forecast (rainfall wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 If you had any doubts at all, check out the 12z GEFS mean. 4-5" of rain areawide through 120hrs. 6-7" for NE PA. By 168hrs it goes up to 6-7" for NE PA, NW NJ and the LHV up into NE. that's telling. They are usually drier than my mother in law's chicken at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah....no Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The 12z Euro is very wet. 2-3" of rain through Wednesday. wow that's just the 1st part too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah....no Sent from my SM-G925V You probably said the same thing 72 hours prior to Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Yeah....no Sent from my SM-G925V Makes Sandy look like Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 12z euro brings the best rains into the metro area 2-3 inches of drought busting rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The Euro has a much stronger surface reflection with TD 11 through 87hrs but it's nothing like the HWRF or GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Makes Sandy look like Irene. That is nothing like Irene, like saying the sky is red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 That is nothing like Irene, like saying the sky is red.It's in a league of its own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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