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9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

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  On 9/28/2015 at 5:08 PM, IsentropicLift said:

The 12z GGEM has a large area of 12"+ for coastal NJ, NYC and LI.

 

  On 9/28/2015 at 4:59 PM, IsentropicLift said:

The GGEM never disappoints. Another crazy, prolific run. 

meh, it had us getting hammered today a few days ago with several inches of rain and yet it's partly cloudy and close to 80

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  On 9/28/2015 at 5:25 PM, Rjay said:

Bc I don't see this surviving the shear. It's probably not going to being a TS making landfall here.

The NHC forecast has a weak TS at best. The official forecast calls for a decrease of shear in about 24-36 hours. And the system is expected to merge with a frontal boundary which as we all know can induce strengthening if the LLJ is positioned favorably.

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  On 9/28/2015 at 5:26 PM, IsentropicLift said:

If you had any doubts at all, check out the 12z GEFS mean.

 

4-5" of rain areawide through 120hrs. 6-7" for NE PA.

 

By 168hrs it goes up to 6-7" for NE PA, NW NJ and the LHV up into NE.

that's telling. They are usually drier than my mother in law's chicken at this range.

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