donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even as Joaquin has been drifting southwest (225°) over the past 12 hours, the last 6 hours have seen a south-southwest trajectory (203°). Should that trajectory be sustained, the hurricane could be south and east of where the models place in in 12-18 hours perhaps making a capture more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even as Joaquin has been drifting southwest (225°) over the past 12 hours, the last 6 hours have seen a south-southwest trajectory (203°). Should that trajectory be sustained, the hurricane could be south and east of where the models place in in 12-18 hours perhaps making a capture more difficult. I'm thinking it might try going for a late capture but could be too east to make much impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it just made a wobble to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Dt says not a cloud in the sky this weekend as the storm passes to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Love me some media hype. BREAKING: Hurricane Joaquin Now Expected To Directly Strike N.J. The storm strengthened to a Category 3 storm, packing 120 mph winds, with expected landfall by Monday. http://patch.com/new-jersey/summit/breaking-hurricane-joaquin-now-expected-directly-strike-nj-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it just made a wobble to the northwest. You're going to drive yourself crazy trying to see exact storm motion. It's like attempting to read the upside down version of the UKMET with all the ridiculous isobar lines during a Winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Love me some media hype. BREAKING: Hurricane Joaquin Now Expected To Directly Strike N.J. The storm strengthened to a Category 3 storm, packing 120 mph winds, with expected landfall by Monday. http://patch.com/new-jersey/summit/breaking-hurricane-joaquin-now-expected-directly-strike-nj-0 It's unbelievable the depths people will go to in order to drive traffic to their website. They don't even have the updated cone which shows a further East track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Leave banter to the banter thread, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's unbelievable the depths people will go to in order to drive traffic to their website. They don't even have the updated cone which shows a further East track. And an unfortunate side effect of NHC taking a 'middle of the road' approach to guidance when they have very low confidence in the track. Perhaps they shouldn't even post long range forecast in such situations, because people don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And an unfortunate side effect of NHC taking a 'middle of the road' approach to guidance when they have very low confidence in the track. Perhaps they shouldn't even post long range forecast in such situations, because people don't understand. The particular web publication's hype has nothing to do with the NHC. The NHC is taking a balanced approach until the picture becomes clearer. The NHC also provides the following caveat: NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NHC has done an excellent job handling this very difficult situation. It's not their fault a bunch of idiots are uploading false hype stories and misinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NHC has done an excellent job handling this very difficult situation. It's not their fault a bunch of idiots are uploading false hype stories and misinformation. Rich Nabb is doing a great job. And their cone is very reasonable. I would say 90% chance it's going to be right albeit on the right side but right. Again even if it misses we have days and days of major surf and erosion. Remember Sandy never hit the otter banks but still did tremendous damage there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011753 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 74.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in the central Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's been wobbling the last few hours but I think you can see it's clearly moving at least due West if not NW from 23N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pulling it North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The WV loop shows the leading edge of the ULL east of Florida tapping into some of Joaquin's energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Long time lurker but I have a question. What happens if it continues to "wobble" W-NW? as others have stated the eruo had the southern edge of the storm into Cuba and that doesn't seem to be the case. What differences would that have down stream. I'm still learning as in going to school for meteorology. Thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, the ULL looks to be dipping further S over the Gulf than predicted by most of the models. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pulling it North? Those last couple frames look NW to me. Could just be a wobble tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The notion that the Euro is wrong is just so inconceivable at this point. Especially with 95% of the other guidance now leaning towards that solution. What's amazing is that not once has Florida even been considered in danger and the center will probably be only a few hundred miles offshore tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Has anyone even paid attention to how lit up the radar is to our SW? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah we got some showers passing through here as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Has anyone even paid attention to how lit up the radar is to our SW? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes More than aware. Got called in tonight will be on the beaches getting soaked :/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Incredible storm, but still one of the uglier high category hurricanes in recent and not so recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ412 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015...MODERATE TO POSSIBLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING HIGH TIDE CYCLESARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...NJZ012>014-020-026-027-021000-/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-151002T1000Z//O.EXB.KPHI.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-151002T2200Z//O.EXT.KPHI.CF.A.0002.151002T2200Z-151004T2100Z/MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-412 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY......COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTALFLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY. THECOASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED INMULTIPLE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT`S TIDEABOUT THE SAME AS THAT OF MIDDAY TODAY AND THEN FOR MIDDAYFRIDAY IT ABOUT BE ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN TODAYS TIDE. THETIDAL FLOODING EPISODES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ABUILDING SURGE INTO SATURDAY COMBINED WITH 6 TO 10 FOOT BREAKINGWAVES AND PERIODS OF MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TOTHE TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING. MARGINAL MODERATE COASTALFLOODING IS LIKELY WITHIN 2 HOURS OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES FRIDAYNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WELL. THEREAFTER, TIDAL FLOODING, POSSIBLYTO A LESSER DEGREE WILL OCCUR THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLYSUNDAY.* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT WILL START AROUND 1100 PMTONIGHT AND AROUND 1130 AM ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE ON THEBACK BAYS AND ALONG THE RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGHTIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. MINORTO MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE TIDES AND WAVEACTION COULD RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Raining pretty good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 IMO the models are already busting poorly here. Hopefully a sign of things to come. The mid-level forcing already extends well Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Since this whole crazy pattern developed including the hurricane, seems there busting allot so far, or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The notion that the Euro is wrong is just so inconceivable at this point. Especially with 95% of the other guidance now leaning towards that solution. What's amazing is that not once has Florida even been considered in danger and the center will probably be only a few hundred miles offshore tomorrow. What if ALL the models are wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What if ALL the models are wrong? Then that would be a disaster for the weather world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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