jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just seeing a closed upper low dive this far south any time of year, down to perhaps the Gulf Coast of FL, much less in early October is stunning. Goes to show how powerful this trough is as well, along with Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't a stronger storm more indicative that the EURO is on track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1.... This. We are FOUR DAYS OUT. Can we stop locking down model trends as fact and just wait and see. All these "itwill make landfall in Wilmington" people would have been laughed at yesterday if they made the same comment. It could still go out to sea, it could still hit delmarva, we truly dont know yet and model hugging will not help in anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't a stronger storm more indicative that the EURO is on track? See HRWF/GFDL I've seen this flawed argument a ton about how the resolution of the models for the ECMWF is better. Not to say the Euro is crazy but it's something the high res. data assimilation aren't seeing IE 4dVAR that may make or break the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This. We are FOUR DAYS OUT. Can we stop locking down model trends as fact and just wait and see. All these "itwill make landfall in Wilmington" people would have been laughed at yesterday if they made the same comment. It could still go out to sea, it could still hit delmarva, we truly dont know yet and model hugging will not help in anyway While I agree, I don't see many people "model hugging". Just giving their obs of the model suites as they come out. I still believe there will be a more NE correction, but not as intense as the Euro. A middle ground somewhere between OBX and Jersey Shore. I think NHC has it pretty damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This. We are FOUR DAYS OUT. Can we stop locking down model trends as fact and just wait and see. All these "itwill make landfall in Wilmington" people would have been laughed at yesterday if they made the same comment. It could still go out to sea, it could still hit delmarva, we truly dont know yet and model hugging will not help in anyway100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1.... I wouldn't hang my star on the current NHC track. The NHC is admittedly simply taking a compromise track between the European and non European models as they are so divergent. They cannot both be right. Therefore, short of luck, the compromise track is not accurate and is likely to change, perhaps very significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't Joaquin a cat 3 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wouldn't hang my star on the current NHC track. The NHC is admittedly simply taking a compromise track between the European and non European models as they are so divergent. They cannot both be right. Therefore, short of luck, the compromise track is not accurate and is likely to change, perhaps very significantly. I'd make the argument that the NHC track is more then just a compromise, but more a trust in the Euro's idea of a more NE track. How intense is yet to be determined. I'm just not sure this thing rears off as intensely west as the GFS and friends have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Isn't Joaquin a cat 3 now? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd make the argument that the NHC track is more then just a compromise, but more a trust in the Euro's idea of a more NE track. How intense is yet to be determined. I'm just not sure this thing rears off as intensely west as the GFS and friends have shown.Yes. Exactly what I was saying about the nhc track. Ty brother. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd make the argument that the NHC track is more then just a compromise, but more a trust in the Euro's idea of a more NE track. How intense is yet to be determined. I'm just not sure this thing rears off as intensely west as the GFS and friends have shown. Their words, my friend. Other factors may apply, but they admit it is a compromise track between the European and non European models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Their words, my friend. Other factors may apply, but they admit it is a compromise track between the European and non European models. Of course, but there must be a reasoning behind that compromise. If not more then the trust of the Euro being that extreme. I doubt when they came up with that track they said "Hey, the GFS is way down here, the Euro is way over here....lets draw a line right down the middle and call it a day!" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 While I agree, I don't see many people "model hugging". Just giving their obs of the model suites as they come out. I still believe there will be a more NE correction, but not as intense as the Euro. A middle ground somewhere between OBX and Jersey Shore. I think NHC has it pretty damn close. I agree with that track for the most part. By model hugging, I mean everyone all of a sudden accepting this left hook into NC SC despite the storm being much stronger than intially anticipated (stronger leads to more N track). No one was thinking this until the models started printing it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z GFS looking more like the Euro at 72hr starts its turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 Location: 23.5°N 73.4°W Moving: SW at 6 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2 AM advisory bumps winds up to 120 mph.Pressure at 948 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The way I see it, Joaquin is still moving further SSW. If it continues doing that for the remainder of the day, it'll likely miss the ridge leaving an opening for Joaquin to sneak through by the weekend. How much of an influence does zombie-Ida have over Joaquin as it continues to deepen, and what does that possibly weakening influence have on Joaquin's track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Haven't really seen any of the pros give a good analysis or breakdown of the storm and possible scenarios. Just a lot of model watching. Last night, I heard a late capture was not going to happen. The storm was either going to slam into the Carolinas or go OTS. Now it seems like that's a possibility? It's the official NHC forecast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's now traveling more west then south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Eyeballing pressure reading data from recon somewhere around the low 940s or upper 930s and peak flight level wind around 115kts. Looks like one surface wind reading of 130kts, but may well be contaminated. Still, J is taking another small dive southwest and its satellite presentation continues to improve. Note the very cold cloud tops on the western flank that had been elusive through last night. Eye popping out nicely, too. Fun to watch, even if direct impacts seem less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good morning it is breezy down here folks. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Based on recon data and satellite, this will likely be upgraded to a cat 4 at 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 How long has it been since we had a Cat 5 sitting just a few hundred miles away from Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Second pass through the eye had pressure as low as 938.2... Lowest I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just for the record, though often inaccurate, the NAVGEM brings Joaquinn ashore in S.Carolina during daylight hours on Sat. It meanders it inland and then has it reemerge near Cape Hatteras and regenerates it next Wed. as it gets ready to go OTS. Capture occurs about 36-48hours from now (ie. at 48-60hours on the 0Z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The most intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic (i.e. not the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean): 915mb: Isabel (2003) 919mb: Gloria (1985) 922mb: Andrew (1993) 924mb: Igor (2010) 933mb: Hugo (1989) Correct me if I'm missing any. You could include the Labor Day hurricane (1935), although it technically peaked in the Straits of Florida. Hugo also peaked in the Caribbean, but the measurement above reflects its pressure shortly before landfall in SC. It looks like Joaquin's pressure has dropped into the 930s and therefore stronger than Sandy and Irene were at peak intensity. There aren't that many intense hurricanes like Joaquin at this latitude. The unusually warm SSTs in the region are undoubtedly responsible for Joaquin's intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like there going do a 3rd pass through the eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Creeping closer to a Cat 4: ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING OVER SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS......CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORMSURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.0N 73.9WABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADORMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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