9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS

[SnoSki14]

Recon suggests Joaquin is already a major. Could see a special update or they'll wait until the next full advisory cycle.

[NycStormChaser]

It was a bad idea with good intentions.

Agreed. We should go back to one now.

[Cygnus X-1]

It was a bad idea with good intentions.

 

I agree. There should be a merger, or something, imho.

[IsentropicLift]

The crazy thing is that while Joaquin looks quite good on IR loop tonight, the inner core still has some work to do. You can see here from the latest Microwave loop how rapidly that inner core is now organizing. With the shear forecasted to continue to decrease, a moist environment in place, very warm SST and no significant land masses to deal with, I see no reason why this would do anything other than continue to steadily strengthen. My guess is that this peaks in about 36 hours at around 130kts, and depending on the rate of intensification, that could be conservative. 

 

 

[Juliancolton]

It looks like that loop ended early this morning.

Also, keep the threads separate. I hate reading model play-by-play.

[IsentropicLift]

It looks like that loop ended early this morning.

Also, keep the threads separate. I hate reading model play-by-play.

I'm aware that its not a live product but that loop is the most up to date that we have currently as far as I am aware. It indicates how the core has become more and more organized today which has led to the rapid intensification phase we currently see. 

 

And as far as the model play by play is concerned, where do you see that in this thread?

[jm1220]

Sandy bombed out similar to this unexpected if I recall correctly right?

Sandy bombed out just as it hit Jamaica-very briefly as a cat 3. It weakened when it crossed over Cuba and Jamaica, and encountered dry air over the Bahamas, so it weakened to a tropical storm at one point. Toward the end, conditions became favorable again and it went back to 100 mph and 940 mb I believe as it crossed the Gulf Stream. It weakened a little once it left the Gulf Stream but by then was phasing with the mid-latitude trough and was on land. 

[Cygnus X-1]

It looks like that loop ended early this morning.

Also, keep the threads separate. I hate reading model play-by-play.

 

Yeah, I don't like model hugging either...oh well, I have both threads bookmarked.

[Lord Snot]

Hey, so DT is still confident the Euro is right....wondering what you guys think?

[PB GFI]

Sandy bombed out just as it hit Jamaica-very briefly as a cat 3. It weakened when it crossed over Cuba and Jamaica, and encountered dry air over the Bahamas, so it weakened to a tropical storm at one point. Toward the end, conditions became favorable again and it went back to 100 mph and 940 mb I believe as it crossed the Gulf Stream. It weakened a little once it left the Gulf Stream but by then was phasing with the mid-latitude trough and was on land. 

 

Joaquin has this to work with vs Sandy . There is 27.5C all the way to OBX . So if this ventilates and does not encounter dry air it could stay a major all the way to OBX .

[wthrmn654]

Just noticed the first recon plan, is now doing recon over the gulf?

[RUMG11]

[wthrmn654]

Hmm,is he reconing something in gulf or wide return to bar? They attempting to get more data area wide to help models?

[wthrmn654]

Dunno if anyone has talked about that disturbance directly behind the hurricane but it's got a good chance of becoming another storm... How will that impact Joaquin?

Disturbance 1: 50% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours

As of 8:00 pm EDT Wed Sep 30 2015 ...

A broad low pressure system has developed along an old frontal

boundary over the central Atlantic more than 600 miles southeast of

Bermuda. Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with this system

have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental

conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to

form by the weekend while the low moves slowly northwestward to

northward. Additional information on this system can be found in

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[NycStormChaser]

Aircraft now reports Jaquin is a CAT 3

[UnionWeatherWx]

Joaquin is now a major hurricane.

[wthrmn654]

What aircraft? Reports stopped coming in over hope ago

[NycStormChaser]

What aircraft? Reports stopped coming in over hope ago

[Windspeed]

The NHC will probably go with 100kts at 11pm. Joaquin becomes the second major hurricane in the Atlantic basin for 2015. I suspect it will maintain that status longer than Danny.

[wthrmn654]

Look at the time stamp, it's over hour ago we recorded new data...

[wthrmn654]

It's currently 01:53utc

[pazzo83]

It's currently 01:53utc

 

Correct.   Since we are in EDT, we are UTC/GMT -4 until the end of daylight savings time.  The UK is in BST so they are UTC/GMT +1 (I got into a lot of fights about this when I worked for a UK software company and would schedule meetings in GMT).

 

Since this is an obs thread, the Hudson is looking mighty choppy right now.  Stiff NNE wind probably at 20-25mph.

[donsutherland1]

Joaquin is now a Category 3 hurricane according to the NHC.

[pazzo83]

Yup:

 

...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

[wthrmn654]

ast Updated: 9/30/2015, 11:00:00 PM (EDT)

Location: 23.8N 73.1WMovement: SW at 6 mphWind: 115 MPHPressure: 951 MB

[RUMG11]

NHC 11pm discussion...5 minutes early.

 

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the
satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening. The eye
has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric
central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has
measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface
winds from the SFMR. These data support an initial intensity of
100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have
delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.

Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 220/5 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move
slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or
so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest
oriented ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a
trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States.
This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z
runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z
UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern
portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the
Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states. The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea. The NHC
forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance
and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the
multi-model consensus. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently
completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected
during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models,
hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance.

The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the
global models to become even more conducive during the next couple
of days. This favors additional intensification, with the only
possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the
slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some
fluctuations in intensity. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause
gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been
significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to
the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the
lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first
36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.

2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin
far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible
outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major
hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
has begun launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

[IsentropicLift]

I still think this ends up being fairly accurate, just with a sharper turn into the coast which would have greater implications. It's also not out of the possibility that it landfalls as a major.

 

 

New max intensity is up to cat 4

 

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

[NinjaWarrior2]

I believe if most of the models fold to the Euro OR the Euro folds to the rest, the NHC track will look way different and then we should have some sort of confidence on where this goes.

[USCG RS]

I still think this ends up being fairly accurate, just with a sharper turn into the coast which would have greater implications. It's also not out of the possibility that it landfalls as a major.

New max intensity is up to cat 4

INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

36H 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH

48H 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1....

[masomenos]

A few of those islands in the Bahamas are going to be decimated. We're talking multi-story waves and major hurricane force winds for over 24 hours. Usually the window for the most severe conditions is 6-12 hours. Not to mention the nearly 20" of rain expected on top of everything else.