IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I know there was some questions earlier about the outflow on the Northern semi-circle. Joaquin has put the doubters to bed without supper this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When do we get fresh recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it were to make landfall in southern Virginia what effects do you guy's think we would get in terms of rain and wind? Especially considering the wind field is small with this as hurricane winds extend only 35 miles from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Check out the NJ.com video that they put out regarding Joaquin. It's vomit in mouth worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 WTNT41 KNHC 302055 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory intensity is now 75 kt. The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours, taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the guidance. There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours, possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear, cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and the start of extratropical transition. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion. 2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. 3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings. 4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening. 6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it were to make landfall in southern Virginia what effects do you guy's think we would get in terms of rain and wind? Especially considering the wind field is small with this as hurricane winds extend only 35 miles from the center. As it moves northward, its wind field will expand, similar to Sandy. This is always happens when hurricanes undergo extratropical transitions. A landfall in southern Virginia (or even NC) would still affect the NYC metro and many areas would experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains. However, the worst would be to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sky is clearing up, I wasn't expecting that until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Took a look in the SE thread. Most there are convinced of a landfall near the NC/SC area, possibly as far north as the NC/VA area. Looks as if we will likely miss most of the fire hose of pure H20 and need the storm to kick some feeder bands of rain over to our area as it rots somewhere out west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The landfall position is so reliant on exactly where the capture occurs and how far NE it jogs from the interaction with Ida. We may honestly not know for sure until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lowest pressure so far on recon flight is 978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lowest pressure at eye, 949.3!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The landfall position is so reliant on exactky where the capture occurs and how far NE it jogs from the interaction with Ida. We may honestly not know for sure until it happens. With Sandy I remember watching to see if the eye crossed 70W when it was heading NE, to see if it would make landfall over or east of NYC or southwest. It just about made it to 70W and then hooked sharply NW to hit Atlantic City. So when the time is right, the storm can turn pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Woah: SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...24.0N 73.0WABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMASABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMASMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Last Updated: 9/30/2015, 8:00:00 PM (EDT) Location: 24.0N 73.0WMovement: SW at 7 mphWind: 105 MPHPressure: 954 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 105 mph at 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 DIDN'T SEE THAT COMING!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow cat 2 already? Very close to a cat 3. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Damn, did not expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like Joaquin is well on his way to being a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like Joaquin is on track to become a Major Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As much as we only focus on impacts around here, the Bahamas are going to lashed and this explosive intensification is not a good thing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like Joaquin is well on his way to being a major hurricane. It's quite likely IMO it makes it to cat 3, maybe even cat 4. The eye is clearing out, overall there's good symmetry and outflow. Conditions should also remain favorable for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sandy bombed out similar to this unexpected if I recall correctly right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why are there two threads for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why are there two threads for this storm? It was a bad idea with good intentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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