WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 LBI, or LB NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Closed eye this pass per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 LBI, or LB NY? Long Beach NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Beach erosion already underway with the tides up to the boardwalk at Long Beach yesterday. Long Beach NY FYI.. and thats not good. Water usually only makes it up to the boardwalk in big storms. Guess that new 'sea wall' is going to get a test drive this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Long Beach NY. My last day of work in Long Beach was last Sunday. I might see if I can grab a night shift there for this Sunday to weather watch afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 My last day of work in Long Beach was last Sunday. I might see if I can grab a night shift there for this Sunday to weather watch afterwards. Surf's picking up this morning with the bouys showing 7 ft. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The PRE hasn't received much discussion. The 00z ECMWF even with a miss still shows the area receiving 2-5" of rain from that alone. The 06z GFS is a bit further South but we get a few inches of rain from the mid-atlantic landfall. The 00z GGEM is very similar to the GFS, just about 50 miles further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Regardless, that strong easterly flow from deep into the Atlantic will definitely cause some coastal flooding Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Regardless, that strong easterly flow from deep into the Atlantic will definitely cause some coastal flooding Sent from my SM-G925V The GFS has strong Easterly winds from Friday right through landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Coastal impacts will definitely be felt no matter what happens from flooding to mass beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I still can't believe how terrible the models were with the rain last night. Other than the GGEM/UKMET nothing had even close to a clue. Out of all the screw ups, the Euro did the best. Almost 2.5" of rain since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've had 1.40" and still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've had 1.40" and still falling. Same total here, the rain has stopped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models on this thread and discussions on the model thread. Why can't mods leave only one thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models on this thread and discussions on the model thread. Why can't mods leave only one thread? You mean "why cant people post in the correct threads so we dont have to wade through pages of bs"? I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Surf's picking up this morning with the bouys showing 7 ft. http://www.nysea.com/live-cam/ The water was definitely higher last night and this morning around the Battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look out how well established the outflow is in all quadrants. And on top of that the current storm structure is not that of a sheared cyclone. Joaquin is currently experiencing under 10kts of shear and that is forecasted to continue to diminish over the next day. He's not wrong, I don't think. Outflow remains restricted over the northern semicircle, which is consistent with ~20 kts of shear (your map shows shear tendencies, not shear values): The storm is obviously vastly exceeding our expectations, but from a TC tracking standpoint, conditions could still be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If you're referring to my one post in here showing the GFS surface winds that is because it was a reply to a message already in this thread. A few times last night I accidentally posted in the wrong thread and had to move it. Combination of lack of sleep and clicking the wrong tabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 He's not wrong, I don't think. Outflow remains restricted over the northern semicircle, which is consistent with ~20 kts of shear: The storm is obviously vastly exceeding our expectations, but from a TC tracking standpoint, conditions could still be better. Maybe you're expecting Joaquin to look something like this? The wind shear is strong just about everywhere and Joaquin managed to form in the one place with relatively low shear. I didn't say that it was zero but the shear is forecasted to continue to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ...because there's no middle ground between an underdeveloped cyclone and an annular Cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon is up and out. Next mission is late afternoon into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ...because there's no middle ground between an underdeveloped cyclone and an annular Cat 5? Joaquin is an organizing hurricane. It will continue to get more organized as the shear continues to lessen and the hot tower in the SE Quadrant begins to wrap around the rest of eyewall. You can't just look at an IR loop and then post the first thought that pops into your head. In this case we have recon data to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon is up and out. Next mission is late afternoon into the evening. Was the data ingested into the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was the data ingested into the 12z suite? No. The mission from last night (Gulf Stream) should be ingested though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is an organizing hurricane. It will continue to get more organized as the shear continues to lessen and the hot tower in the SE Quadrant begins to wrap around the rest of eyewall. You can't just look at an IR loop and then post the first thought that pops into your head. In this case we have recon data to work with. OK, but you said that outflow was excellent in all quadrants (which I disagreed with), and that shear was less than 10kts (which appears to be quite wrong). I'm not looking to start any sort of argument, but that "you serious, Clark?" meme is pretty condescending, especially when your facts may not be right, and the other guy's may not be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Last Updated: 9/30/2015, 11:00:00 AM (EDT) Location: 24.7N 72.6WMovement: SW at 6 mphWind: 80 MPHPressure: 971 Mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 OK, but you said that outflow was excellent in all quadrants (which I disagreed with), and that shear was less than 10kts (which appears to be quite wrong). I'm not looking to start any sort of argument, but that "you serious, Clark?" meme is pretty condescending, especially when your facts may not be right, and the other guy's may not be wrong. In this case we had recon data which confirmed the shear was very low. In the best interest of not derailing this thread, I agree to end it here. The new NHC forecast track takes the system right towards the mid-atlantic or NJ coast as a hurricane. Still waiting on the discussion. I am sure it will reference the large amount of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 In this case we had recon data which confirmed the shear was very low. In the best interest of not derailing this thread, I agree to end it here. The new NHC forecast track takes the system right towards the mid-atlantic or NJ coast as a hurricane. Still waiting on the discussion. I am sure it will reference the large amount of uncertainty. NHC has this as a major hurricane turning north. The cone continues to shift a tad west which makes sense given the latest model trends. Let's see if the 12z models continue the mid Atlantic strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seem the ensemble models are now hinting at either a New York City area or Jersey area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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