Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pressure down to 968 on the first pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.06" since midnight, monthly total now 4.27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Currently in storm ,results so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Currently in storm ,results so far Good to see a more symmetrical wind distribution versus yesterday, especially on that northern quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 so sorry, I'm just getting up and need coffee, look at the wind and pressure plummet. I was originally correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 970mb. Woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is officially a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 THIS JUST IN Say hello to hurricane Joaquin! Last Updated: 9/30/2015, 8:00:00 AM (EDT) Location: 24.9N 72.2WMovement: SW at 6 mphWind: 75 MPHPressure: 971 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ...JOAQUIN BECOMES A HURRICANE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Was just reading the 5 am discussion,and thought it was interesting since of the things they pointed out: onditions are expected to be conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which should result in slow weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Awaiting updated track, still shows 5am,though they have updated computer model maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That feathery outflow to the north reflects the lower shear today. Conditions appear ripe for intensification with an anticyclone getting established, not to mention that's total bathwater down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Awaiting updated track, still shows 5am,though they have updated computer model maps Track only updated on the full packages. Next update is 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That feathery outflow to the north reflects the lower shear today. Conditions appear ripe for intensification with an anticyclone getting established, not to mention that's total bathwater down there. The ULAC, extreme latent heat release, and steady intensification lead me to believe that this could be a Category 2 by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Interesting, looking at the computer models and ensemble models maps, they show it coming ashore somewhere,but they seem to all suggest then it makes a right turn to the north east eventually. What exactly is to the west to suggest such a sharp turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The ULAC, extreme latent heat release, and steady intensification lead me to believe that this could be a Category 2 by this evening. Wouldn't be surprised at all. To my eye, the satellite presentation is improving from the overnight. Some sustained towers with the coldest tops we've seen so far showing up. Don't know the scale exactly, but a few white flecks popping on the GOES rainbow floater. Edit: Still has work to do to close the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very unfortunate for parts of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very cool feature on NHC website. Archive of the forecast update/advisory through graphic and you can loop it to show you progression of each update. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The one factor which makes me think the operational Euro "may" have some merit with its out to sea solution is the orientation of the mid level ridge. While quite potent, it's located at a longitude such that the door can open slightly for a weakness over the Atlantic. The mid level ridge is located further west than the antecedent pattern for Sandy, which featured more ridging near Newfoundland/Nova Scotia. One can clearly see the alleyway toward the east coast in the following 500mb mean, but I can also see the possibility of stage-right exit through the weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 2.20" of rain here last night. Local river rose almost three feet. Starting to level off some now but we all know what the next four days will feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The one factor which makes me think the operational Euro "may" have some merit with its out to sea solution is the orientation of the mid level ridge. While quite potent, it's located at a longitude such that the door can open slightly for a weakness over the Atlantic. The mid level ridge is located further west than the antecedent pattern for Sandy, which featured more ridging near Newfoundland/Nova Scotia. One can clearly see the alleyway toward the east coast in the following 500mb mean, but I can also see the possibility of stage-right exit through the weakness. I agree there is and probably will be an escape. But the damage is done wave wise. This is a severe coastal event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree there is and probably will be an escape. But the damage is done wave wise. This is a severe coastal event How can you say that it's probable that this will escape East? The Euro is all by itself, an outlier to most of its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not to mention, no other models have really at all shifted to the east at all either.... In fact I recall reading in one of the recent hurricane discussions, the Euro had shifted west by 150 miles. How can you say that it's probable that this will escape East? The Euro is all by itself, an outlier to most of its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With the current projected path what would storm surges be for the my metro area??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm in process of looking that stuff up right now With the current projected path what would storm surges be for the my metro area??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Montauk point The battery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Bergen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm in process of looking that stuff up right now As we have no idea what the storms path or intensity would be at any given time it's unrealistic to guess or even look up. What are you using to base your estimates on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Beach erosion already underway with the tides up to the boardwalk at Long Beach yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sorry forgot to post source... http://www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/etsurge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.