jbenedet Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If there were any remaining doubts as to whether or not he's a hurricane, they should be gone, considering the current satellite presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the GEFS mean likes SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Big question that still has to be considered is will Joaquin fully take the bait of the upper low a la 00Z GFS, or stay a little farther east of it and ride farther north up the coast? You may remember Edouard from 1996 that was forecast by global models to clobber the Mid Atlantic but kept riding 70N instead, avoiding full interaction with a digging trough to the west. Will depend how far west Joaquin gets before turning north I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And then you have this.... Actually very much in line with my thinking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like an eye is forming in Joaquin. It has to be a hurricane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like an eye is forming in Joaquin. It has to be a hurricane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like an eye is forming in Joaquin. It has to be a hurricane now Can you please share what website you are following it live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC keeping it as a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like they're being conservative until a HH plane can get in there. If I had to bet, the pressure is likely around 985 right now. It seems like the shear is done for the time being. It's a hurricane for sure, but I guess we'll have to wait until 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 sorry NHC it's a hurricaneIt's irrelevant. Media outlets will get the 5AM update as a hurricane in time to broadcast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Seems like they're being conservative until a HH plane can get in there. If I had to bet, the pressure is likely around 985 right now. It seems like the shear is done for the time being. It's a hurricane for sure, but I guess we'll have to wait until 5AM.Exactly. May also be a less experienced and greener forecaster on the overnight shift. Nervous to be to Gung go. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's irrelevant. Media outlets will get the 5AM update as a hurricane in time to broadcast . Exactly. It'll be upgraded at 5:00. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It isn't "clearly" a hurricane. Objective guidance has not reached 4.0 on Dvorak. Why would u pull the trigger without additional evidence? Also is seems that intensification has leveled off from this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's coming down hard now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have picked up 0.81" of rain so far at the closest reporting station since midnight, storm total 1.02" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Heaviest rain in months here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So far 1.69" of rain has fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like Joaquin might be going through some reorganization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.10" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.14" of rain since midnight, storm total 1.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Radar estimate is 1.51". It rained so hard it kept me up for an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's been pouring since 1030PM here at Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Had 0.20" before midnight and 1.61" after for 1.81" total...muggy 73/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 2.55 inches of rain over night. storm total 3.20 inches including yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawayanda Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 2.55 inches of rain over night. storm total 3.20 inches including yesterday I'm in Highland Lakes too. (Just a lurker on AmericanWx til now). My PWS has a storm total of 3.85 in and 2.99 in since midnight. Some very heavy downpours in the early AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.50" total so far. 1.38" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Crazy, 2.5" inches last night. That's not including what was before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1.25 so far here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Joaquin is now a Hurricane, per Hurricane Hunters data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pressure down to 968 on the first pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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