AnthonyDabbundo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think this storm should have no problem getting to 110 mph and category 3... very favorable environment with the warm temps and decreasing shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think the NHC cone is in a good spot at this point, forecast wise. I'm quite skeptical of the tracks into North Carolina and and to a lesser degree Virginia, for the simple reason that joaquin will not be transitioning into an extratropical system, as an intensifying hurricane south of North Carolina's latitude...We've seen this movie before. It just doesn't happen, when a developing tropical cyclone is over 80F+ water, and within a very moist/tropical environment. To discern when the left hook will occur, we have to think about when he'll begin the extra-tropical/hybrid transition, and in terms of climatology, that's typically somewhere between the latitude of Virginia and Southern New Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would think the (possible) hook would happen bc of Joaquin getting captured. When it gets captured, it would then slowly start to transition to a hybrid as it hooked on into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For posterity since the 00z is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely a win for the GGEM/UKMET on this heavy rain batch in DE/MD/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models look to have been too far west with the heavy rain this evening...they had DCA/BWI getting almost nothing, and that's where the big blob of convection/high PWATs is...Looks to me as if NYC could get a lot more rainfall tonight than expected, on the order of 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would think the (possible) hook would happen bc of Joaquin getting captured. When it gets captured, it would then slowly start to transition to a hybrid as it hooked on into the coast. What I'm saying is, Joaquin will never get "captured" as a robust tropical system, within a tropical environment. It will move through the height field "path" (weakness) as an independent entity, until it begins to lose some of its tropical characteristics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 significant event unfolding http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0533&yr=2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 significant event unfolding http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0533&yr=2015 Yes it's about to pour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 11pm track from the NHC was definitely shifted west you can clearly see a bend to the west on the new track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It is pouring now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The heaviest rain looks to miss western long island to our west no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Picked up 0.21" of rain at the closest reporting station prior to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It is pouring now!It's about time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Absolutely insane here under the meso low. Hope you guys get in on this. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Radar looks very impressive to hit the city soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 00z HWRF initialized at 986mb and goes down to 957 by this time tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Up to 0.62" so far for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro comes out at 2AM EST? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro comes out at 2AM EST? Approximately, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The hurricane models and globals are more bullish on intensity every successive run, it's mindblowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And then you have this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Where does it take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Where does it take it? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 An eastern shore Virginia hit would make things interesting here, but anything north and we are in big, big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 An eastern shore Virginia hit would make things interesting here, but anything north and we are in big, big trouble. If the Euro follows similar to the UKMET I will begin heavily leaning on this being a NC/VA hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the Euro follows similar to the UKMET I will begin heavily leaning on this being a NC/VA hit Which wouldn't be that bad for our area compared to a SNJ hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.