dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I gotta heavy shower passing through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The heavy rain is right on the doorstep for NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Getting some moderate rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd be willing to bet the farm this is currently a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely a hurricane in 15 minutes. Likely 80MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sucking in a ton of moisture @ 850mb Nice coma shape as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 Location: 25.8°N 71.7°W Moving: WSW at 5 mph Min pressure: 988 mb Max sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 988 mb 70 mph winds Cone virtually the same Not what I was expecting from the NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Nice to see my call from two days ago mentioned lol The upper-level winds are shown by the globalmodels to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as anupper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additionalstrengthening is anticipated. The new NHC forecast is a bithigher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCNintensity consensus aid. It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,and ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the nextfew days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 25.8N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.5N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 24.8N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 24.9N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 26.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 31.3N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wtf? Lol it will be a hurricane next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 They probably wanted to play it conservatively given they don't have recon in there but this is clearly already a hurricane and I would be shocked if they don't upgrade by 5AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It looks like they're leaning heavily on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 They probably wanted to play it conservatively given they don't have recon in there but this is clearly already a hurricane and I would be shocked if they don't upgrade by 5AM. Since we have Hurricane watches up, they could do the 2am as well if the system continues to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Just a terrible job by the models today. Even the 00z NAM is way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look at that blob in south nj. Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It looks like they're leaning heavily on the Euro It doesn't look that way to me. They probably took a mean of all 12z/18z OPs and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wouldn't be at all surprised if people received 2-3, maybe even 4" of rain tonight based on current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It doesn't look that way to me. They probably took a mean of all 12z/18z OPs and ensembles. Agreed, the five day track takes it right to the fork in the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wouldn't be at all surprised if people received 2-3, maybe even 4" of rain tonight based on current radar. I'm down in Lancaster County (Millersville) and its pretty much a tropical downpour. PWATS are insanely high and its still really muggy. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like the 00z RGEM caught on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 They leaned towards the Euro ensembles and shifted track west per there discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm down in Lancaster County (Millersville) and its pretty much a tropical downpour. PWATS are insanely high and its still really muggy. Pretty cool You don't say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Since we have Hurricane watches up, they could do the 2am as well if the system continues to organize. The next advisory is at 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 God the NAM is useless. It pretty much diminishes Joaquin by tomorrow night. Better chance of getting a cat 5 landfall at Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The next advisory is at 2am. Yea, the intermittent is what I was alluding too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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