HailMan06 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I thought this post from the main forum was to good not to pass on. I have to admit, it does sound awfully ominousLEK believes Joaquin could go major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 LEK believes Joaquin could go major. Saw that. Not sure if it means anything but it's currently pouring in DC area where most models were dry for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The core still needs work, but not too shabby, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS slams into NC. Wow. Try the Delmarva Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That solution more north compared to some of the other models but seems to be in line. Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I don't know of any hurricane or subtropical storm that's ever slammed into the DelMarVa before... horrific flooding would be in order if that would occur. Let's face it, much of the Northeast's infrastructure is so old and cheaply replaced, I'm willing to bet that there will be at least a handful of cities that will be without power post-Halloween if this storm makes landfall and drops the amount of rain some models are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The outflow on this storm despite the shear is incredible Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I've always wondered what kind of surge impact there would be for Philly with a landfall over Ocean City, MD or south of Delaware Bay. That would be a huge funneling of water into the bay and up the Delaware River. With Sandy they were lucky, because the winds were northerly over Delaware Bay and pushed water away. I was in Philly a week after Sandy, it wasn't a huge deal there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've always wondered what kind of surge impact there would be for Philly with a landfall over Ocean City, MD or south of Delaware Bay. That would be a huge funneling of water into the bay and up the Delaware River. With Sandy they were lucky, because the winds were northerly over Delaware Bay and pushed water away. I was in Philly a week after Sandy, it wasn't a huge deal there at all. I live just NW of the city and was thinking the exact same thing. a Delmarva landfall is the worst case for Philly and NJ, the shore would get absolutely rocked on the NW side by storm surge and wind. As for Philly, the rain combined with the Delaware River would be significantly worse than Sandy (wind was only real issue for PA in Sandy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've always wondered what kind of surge impact there would be for Philly with a landfall over Ocean City, MD or south of Delaware Bay. That would be a huge funneling of water into the bay and up the Delaware River. With Sandy they were lucky, because the winds were northerly over Delaware Bay and pushed water away. I was in Philly a week after Sandy, it wasn't a huge deal there at all. Good points. After 3 days without power in the Edison area, we simply decided to get a hotel room in Philly for a few nights (we had plans there for that Friday night anyway) and after two nights in Philly, we got word our power was back on, so we went home. Philly had very little damage, as it was too far inland for major winds and rainfall was light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've always wondered what kind of surge impact there would be for Philly with a landfall over Ocean City, MD or south of Delaware Bay. That would be a huge funneling of water into the bay and up the Delaware River. With Sandy they were lucky, because the winds were northerly over Delaware Bay and pushed water away. I was in Philly a week after Sandy, it wasn't a huge deal there at all. Think providence in 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rapid deepening continues. Very impressive system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Question: With Joaquin rapidly strengthening would that cause the storm to track further N/E? Possibly causing a larger impact for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Question: With Joaquin rapidly strengthening would that cause the storm to track further N/E? Possibly causing a larger impact for us?Yes. It would allow the storm to possibly move at a quicker pace up the eastern seaboard and be captured further north. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GFS Initialized the storm at a higher pressure 1002mb rather than 900. So prolly gonna be stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rapid deepening continues. Very impressive system Woooooooowwwwww!!!! When was the last time we saw those colors!!! That's a cane for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes. It would allow the storm to possibly move at a quicker pace up the eastern seaboard and be captured further north. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Woooooooowwwwww!!!! When was the last time we saw those colors!!! That's a cane for sure This reminds me a lot of how Katrina really intensified as it moved sw or wsw over Florida before heading west then north....I have noticed when tropical systems head southwest or west southwest they seem to really strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From the general Joaquin thread: Pressure: 988mb Winds: 60kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With rains before the main event so to speak, leaves on trees, ground will be loosened up slightly that any big wind could end up knocking down trees. Let's hope that isn't the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 AL, 11, 2015093000, , BEST, 0, 258N, 715W, 60, 988, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This reminds me a lot of how Katrina really intensified as it moved sw or wsw over Florida before heading west then north....I have noticed when tropical systems head southwest or west southwest they seem to really strengthen. I think it's more that he's sitting in a bathtub with oceanic heat content at record levels there. Kind of like the loop current an Katrina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think it's more that he's sitting in a bathtub with oceanic heat content at record levels there. Kind of like the loop current an Katrina I would agree with this. I was in Hilton Head Island South Carolina back in late august the water there was so warm it was literallyburning my ankles no joke 88 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 From the general Joaquin thread: Pressure: 988mb Winds: 60kt 4 kts from a Cat 1 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Early 0z tropical models have an average landfall cluster around the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Early 0z tropical models have an average landfall cluster around the Delmarva. That's where Sandy started. Man I would not want to own a beach front home right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Should be a good thump of rain over night with that stuff in eastern Pa. Plenty of reports of heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 0.43" of rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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