Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Holy cow...the NE quad is pretty damn intense for something that was a naked swirl two hours ago. This could actually take off sooner than I expected. Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 EURO craps it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Euro is pretty mundane for us. Most of the PRE goes South and Joaquin goes OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Euro is pretty mundane for us. Most of the PRE goes South and Joaquin goes OTS. Yep-big swing and a miss. It jumps to the east towards Ida's remnants-odd solution....Still 5 days out, so the final outcome is far from certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How can the remnants pull a strong tropical storm out to sea?Many more solutions to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Very close to a capture at 120hrs but Joaquin is a just a bit too far East. You can see the 500mb vorticy reaching like two outstreched arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ton of 990mb readings on this pass. Might have some rapid intensification if that's correct Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ton of 990mb readings on this pass. Might have some rapid intensification if that's correct Sent from my SM-G925V I wonder if the intensity forecast is going to lead to major errors in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking really, really good on vis loop. We might see an eye poke out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I wonder if the intensity forecast is going to lead to major errors in the modeling. I was thinking the same thing-if there's a quick ramp up tonight, the euro's solution (and other modeling will surely change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Updated. Just goes to show you that even a moderate drought can't prevent river flooding around these parts with so much widespread rain in such a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looking really, really good on vis loop. We might see an eye poke out soon. The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. It's under the convection per recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There is always this model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Several lines of heavier showers over NJ advancing Northward. Might be time to start an observation thread soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around. I think the shear is supposed to relax within the next 12-24 hours so guessing it will wrap around once that happens. Looks good on satellite already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Models initialize at 55kt/990mb conservatively. System is rapidly deepening. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The center still looks displaced to the north. Doubt there will be any eye feature today until the center either reforms under the convection or the convection wraps around.Recon noted an eye wall forming that's about half open. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Several lines of heavier showers over NJ advancing Northward. Might be time to start an observation thread soon. How far north do you think that line is gonna hold together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Recon noted an eye wall forming that's about half open. Sent from my SM-G925V Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point. Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Wow. That is pretty impressive then. Gotta think there will be changes tonight in the modeling as I don't think any models had this thing at 990 by this point. Anyone know if the 18Z suite will have the recon data digested? A bigger stronger storm will start to effect its own environment. So I would wait for later runs as it starts to do so. One thing that could inhibit it is it is moving slow and will start to upwell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 A bigger stronger storm will start to effect its own environment. So I would wait for later runs as it starts to do so. One thing that could inhibit it is it is moving slow and will start to upwell. agree-if it sits and spins it will slowly weaken due to churned up cooler waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Appears OKX has trimmed expected rainfall amounts by half from what they were this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 12z EPS mean is very wet for the area. Especially for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z EPS - Big closed low near Atlanta with mean surface low associated with Joaquin just North of the Bahamas at 96hrs. It would appear that the surface pressure is quite low as the outer isobar is 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 And just to further complicate things, the 18z NAM now brings through a big slug of moisture here tonight, similar to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Appears to be two main camps on the 12z EPS individual members, one which moves the system northeast like the OP and the other which landfall the system either into the NC or VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Appears OKX has trimmed expected rainfall amounts by half from what they were this morning: Not really surprising given that the general model consensus has come down quite a bit from yesterday. Still 1.5-2.0" of rain is nothing to sneeze at. Could even see locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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