tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 4:46 PM, IsentropicLift said: Can I ask what source you are using. TropicalTidbits is stuck at hour 66 as well. Tropical tidbits is out to like 204 if you look at the 10m wind map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z UKMET is wet tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z UKMET also looks to have one hell of PRE incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Ton of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Intensity aside, I am failing to see what makes this such an absurd solution. It makes perfect sense if Joaquin gets captured by the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 For fun, the GEM has the Joaquin needing 24 hours to move NE from the central NJ coast to central Rhode Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Slow movement is very,very concerning. That's the Floyd / Irene scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:01 PM, Drz1111 said: Slow movement is very,very concerning. That's the Floyd / Irene scenario. Irene actually hauled up the coast. Most of the rain fell in like 14 hours. The problem was that we received like 11.5" of rain in that short of a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z UKMET totals through Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Since the tropical snobs don't care about this... Recon found 55mph winds on a recent dropsonde during their first pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:08 PM, Superstorm93 said: Since the tropical snobs don't care about this... Recon found 55mph winds on a recent dropsonde during their first pass. The 12z HWRF has the surface pressure down to 995mb as of 18z today. Sounds spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:10 PM, IsentropicLift said: The 12z HWRF has the surface pressure down to 995mb as of 18z today. Sounds spot on.Might have to say it has a bit better handle then the global models at the moment. Probably more shifting around on the next set of model runs I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Whoa. Quote 000URNT12 KNHC 291707VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015A. 29/16:34:50ZB. 25 deg 58 min N070 deg 40 min WC. 850 mb 1394 mD. 30 ktE. 316 deg 64 nmF. 078 deg 39 ktG. 317 deg 73 nmH. 994 mbI. 19 C / 1671 mJ. 21 C / 1669 mK. 16 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 1345 / 8O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF300 0211A JOAQUIN OB 06MAX FL WIND 39 KT 317 / 73 NM 16:14:30ZMAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT 133 / 54 NM 16:52:10ZCNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 11 KTRain at the center fix location. Heavy rain outbound, some SFMR rain-contaminated surface windsDropsonde confirmed at least 47 kts surface wind in the SE quadrant outbound prior to max FL wind; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:08 PM, Superstorm93 said: Since the tropical snobs don't care about this... Recon found 55mph winds on a recent dropsonde during their first pass. It almost looks like the LLC is getting pulled back into the convection, as happened yesterday. Will be following trends during the diurnal maximum closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:12 PM, Superstorm93 said: Whoa. GFS didn't have the storm getting to 994 until Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:16 PM, Hoth said: It almost looks like the LLC is getting pulled back into the convection, as happened yesterday. Will be following trends during the diurnal maximum closely. Loads of northerly Shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GEFS mean is even wetter. 5-8" for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That curved banding pattern looks nice. Some pretty cold cloud tops blossoming over or just south of the center. I don't see any recent MW imagery, but it seems pretty clear the system is making some decent progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 On 9/29/2015 at 5:16 PM, Hoth said: It almost looks like the LLC is getting pulled back into the convection, as happened yesterday. Will be following trends during the diurnal maximum closely. It is officially under -83c cloud tops. Tonight will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like the LLC just got sucked into the convection on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 It will be interesting to see the 12Z Euro as the UKMET went right to the 12z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks like the GFDL is a winner also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's almost like an Isabel but a bit further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFDL is way behind the HRWF. Ends run at 65W and way south. A minimal hurricane at this time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The HWRF parent domain isn't updating on WxBell or Tropical Tidbits. Can someone post the UL winds. I'd imagine the UL jet streak is probably back building on that run while acquiring anti-cyclonic curvature and keeping the surface low in the right entrance region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 For starters the Euro is a tick further North for tonight, still Northern sections of the sub-forum get clipped by the heaviest rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Around an inch NW tonight, a bit less as you move Southeast. SE of NYC is around 0.50"+. (12z ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There was some reference in here to the possibility of an anticyclone getting established north of Joaquin. Anyone seeing any indication of that in the modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The Euro looks similar to the 12z UKMET so far. Pre developing Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Latest Day 1 from WPC . Heaviest amounts to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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