Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Real good over night discussion in this thread...nice read this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Latest rainfall forecast from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Latest rainfall forecast from Upton 3-4 inches and that's just dressing the table for whatever Joaquin ends up brining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 An infamous MET thinks the Euro is wrong and this is a Hurricane with a strike just to our S when all is said and done FWIW . The Euro looked crazy and how in the world does it get up to a category 3 in the Bahamas with constant northerly shear present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 06z GEFS mean is still showing 5-7" totals. About the same as 00z and wetter than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 3-4 inches and that's just dressing the table for whatever Joaquin ends up brining. I'm just hoping we don't miss the heaviest rain to our north and west tonight and tomorrow. No flood watches present as of yet. The rgem is very wet for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The HRRR brings in rains for NW areas mid-afternoon. Holds off for the coastal sections until after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm just hoping we don't miss the heaviest rain to our north and west tonight and tomorrow. No flood watches present as of yet. The rgem is very wet for our area. Depends on where you are. The 06z RGEM has almost no rain for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Depends on where you are. The 06z RGEM has almost no rain for NJ. I'm in the NYC metro and wow what a difference in model runs in just 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Depends on where you are. The 06z RGEM has almost no rain for NJ. I think the 6z Rgem was a blip run. The model does that occasionally. I would wait until the 12z run to get a better handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the 6z Rgem was a blip run. The model does that occasionally. I would wait until the 12z run to get a better handle. Based on a blend of models, 2-4 inches for everyone is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the 6z Rgem was a blip run. The model does that occasionally. I would wait until the 12z run to get a better handle. Hopefully. I am a little concerned that the main slug goes NW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Spread increasing some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 09z SREF mean is drier and further Northwest tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 most tracks bend it back NW, which means the models are definitely picking up on the block-out to sea option appears less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Those extreme rainfall solutions are declining especially if we get little from the first disturbance. The wider spread with Joaquin makes things even more confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Those extreme rainfall solutions are declining especially if we get little from the first disturbance. The wider spread with Joaquin makes things even more confusing. The 00z ECWMF and 06z GFS still show 5-7" for the area through both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The 00z ECWMF and 06z GFS still show 5-7" for the area through both events.It is a step down from yesterday and we can likely handle even 5" given the dry conditions especially if it's spread out over a few days.Significant yes but not extreme so that Met might've had the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It is a step down from yesterday and we can likely handle even 5" given the dry conditions especially if it's spread out over a few days. Significant yes but not extreme so that Met might've had the right idea. I really didn't expect the models to maintain the same solution for days. We have the rain coming in tonight but the second part is still a day 3-5 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Overall the 09z SREF is wetter than 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It is a step down from yesterday and we can likely handle even 5" given the dry conditions especially if it's spread out over a few days. Significant yes but not extreme so that Met might've had the right idea. Still a ways to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We have been down this road before. All season long. Not talking so much about the tropical storm itself but more so with the models over playing the rain fall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My concern for the first system was it going to far nw...looks like that's the case now. This weekend is still very much up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 it's really pushed back now-NHC track doesnt have it up here til next Monday now....was Friday/Sat yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My concern for the first system was it going to far nw...looks like that's the case now. This weekend is still very much up in the air It appears that the ridge is holding on a bit longer than previously expected. I would still watch that surface low development this afternoon over E KY and WV. The 12z NAM is still spitting out 1-3" amounts over the next 36 hours. Obviously more the further NW you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My concern for the first system was it going to far nw...looks like that's the case now. This weekend is still very much up in the air We have seen this before. Let's see what the rest of the 12z guidance says. I had the same feeling yesterday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There should still be a fairly substantial area of heavier rains tonight, but the focus will be to the North and Northeast of where the surface low develops. I still wouldn't consider anything a lock at this point. You can see the moisture streaming right in from the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We have seen this before. Let's see what the rest of the 12z guidance says. I had the same feeling yesterday as well. Some posters have a tendency to overreact instead of letting things play out completely. You're making it sound like we're not going to see anything. 1-2" with locally higher amounts is still the overwhelming consensus. The NAM is still really wet for tomorrow and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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