bluewave Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Astronomical tides will be running high to start October at the time the models are indicating that a nor'easter could impact our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Would have been worse if it were this weekend with the full moon tides. Next weekend is in between the moons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 Would have been worse if it were this weekend with the full moon tides. Next weekend is in between the moons. This Tuesday the 29th will be the peak of this astronomically high tide cycle. So depending on the timing of any potential event, the highest astronomical tides will be closer to the beginning portion of it. But even by Saturday the 3rd, the tides will still be a foot above the level it will be between moon phases. Sandy Hook peak daily tides 9/27....6.24 9/28....6.35 9/29...6.46...peak 9/30....6.38 10/01..6.16 10/2....5.86 10/03..5.55 10/7....4.55..lowest tide between phases Here's what different tide levels are ....astronomical+ surge... impacts are for Sandy Hook. Moderate impacts start at 7.7 feet. http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/monmou.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 So much blocking setting up there may even be a tropical connection. Yanksfan is prob jumping for joy right now. Nam shows crazy amounts as usual but gfs ain't too shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I heard the Euro is wet for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 I heard the Euro is wet for this The 0z was; the 12z isn't. The 12z is wet with the frontal passage on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 The models have heavy rain potential as soon as Wednesday with the lead wave but handle the closing off and subsequent development differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 the eps is more aggressive than the op atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Could this be a 1 to 2 inch rain event late tuesday into wednesday? That would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Gfs goes crazy now with precip amounts 5+ from the frontal passage and noreaster like system. I'm very interested to see if 98L which could be a named system will play any role in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 the eps is more aggressive than the op atm Details (track/intensity)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 00z GGEM is 5-11" with highest over LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Classic PRE event on the Ukie. I always take this model seriously, especially after it was the first to latch onto the previous system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Both the 06z GFDL and HWRF have a high impact landfall into LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This system is looking Gloria-esque with the pressure and location. Gloria's maximum winds gusts was an 85 mph one at Islip upon landfall. With maximum knots at 70, we could see a gust close to what Gloria brought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Careful with those hurricane models, then have been overdone this year on tropical development. with that said, the water is quite warm, so anything that gets going could go to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Careful with those hurricane models, then have been overdone this year on tropical development. with that said, the water is quite warm, so anything that gets going could go to town The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This system is looking Gloria-esque with the pressure and location. Gloria's maximum winds gusts was an 85 mph one at Islip upon landfall. With maximum knots at 70, we could see a gust close to what Gloria brought. it is believed wind gusts on eastern long island were up to 115 mph in gusts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. Looks like our drought is going to end with a bang. 1-2 inches tomorrow/wed and then something big after that. Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This system is looking Gloria-esque with the pressure and location. Gloria's maximum winds gusts was an 85 mph one at Islip upon landfall. With maximum knots at 70, we could see a gust close to what Gloria brought. Hmm? Gloria was at 961 mb when it passed 40N. I don't see anything close to that on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Hmm? Gloria was at 961 mb when it passed 40N. I don't see anything close to that on the models. 966mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 the hwrf is notorious for blowing up everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 the hwrf is notorious for blowing up everything I'm not saying it is right, just pointing out that some guidance is suggesting a strong cyclone at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'm not saying it is right, just pointing out that some guidance is suggesting a strong cyclone at our latitude. My Uncle Freddy says the east end is due for a hurricane, but I don't post that to the thread and you shouldn't be posting the HWRF, especially without context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The UKMET did really well with yesterdays system. The 00z run had some prolific totals just through the next 72hrs. For reference, 200mm = 7.87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. My, if the strength of a tropical system were irrelevant, I guess we can decommission the NHC! Noting your caveat about extra-tropical v. tropical (the so called neutercane argument)...there are plenty of extra-tropical cyclones whose intensity made all the difference...Sandy amongst them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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