Bobby Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As much as I follow the NYC/Philly section those of us on the island know our weather can be very different than the metro area. Feel free to post your thoughts, wishes or general concensus about the POSSIBLE upcoming Christmas weekend storm. Hoping we see some serious banding off the sound as this one goes by that we are known to get at times. Keeping my fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As much as I follow the NYC/Philly section those of us on the island know our weather can be very different than the metro area. Feel free to post your thoughts, wishes or general concensus about the POSSIBLE upcoming Christmas weekend storm. Hoping we see some serious banding off the sound as this one goes by that we are known to get at times. Keeping my fingers crossed... I agree we do have very different weather, but being that this is still 5 days away, it may be wise to still keep one thread for NYC metro area until we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you can find enough members for a quorum, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you can find enough members for a quorum, I'm in. This is my first time having a house in Long Island when it's going to snow. What kind of snow shovel should I be looking for? I think we're easily looking at 12-18 inches for the Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night/Monday storm. Really wouldn't begin shoveling until Monday. I've gotta get a new hat, new gloves... people are going to make a run on bread and milk at the local Waldbaums and Waldbaums is going to be CLOSED for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I agree we do have very different weather, but being that this is still 5 days away, it may be wise to still keep one thread for NYC metro area until we get closer to the event. Absolutely Joe I agree but I am also looking towards a regional sub section just for us on the island as I think are conditions can be different enough due to our location to warrant it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 If you can find enough members for a quorum, I'm in. Hopefully we can find enough. I think it's quite possible. I will throw a thread up to see how many we can get that would be interested. Like your site by the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At this point there is not much if anything for us to talk about. We need to be focused on SYNOPTICS this far out, not MICROSCALE, or even mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This is my first time having a house in Long Island when it's going to snow. What kind of snow shovel should I be looking for? I think we're easily looking at 12-18 inches for the Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night/Monday storm. Really wouldn't begin shoveling until Monday. I've gotta get a new hat, new gloves... people are going to make a run on bread and milk at the local Waldbaums and Waldbaums is going to be CLOSED for Christmas. you better start reinforcing the windows and doors too. Maybe get yourself a snowblower, or better yet, a zamboni. Don't forget a high powered generator and canned goods....lots of canned goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 you better start reinforcing the windows and doors too. Maybe get yourself a snowblower, or better yet, a zamboni. Don't forget a high powered generator and canned goods....lots of canned goods. Haha...I think he will be fine with a nice snow shovel or snow blower. Keeping a little extra food and milk around the house couldn't hurt. However, I'm not even going to begin to get excited about a major snow storm until about 36 hours before. Things can change quick and there is still about 4 days until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hopefully we can find enough. I think it's quite possible. I will throw a thread up to see how many we can get that would be interested. Like your site by the way! Suffolk county here...I think a LI subsection would be a good idea. However, if we had one I feel the bulk of the good discussions/info would still be in the NYC section. BTW...nice to see the Long Islanders on the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 These days, with reliable snow plowers and preparation, most people are back on the roads a few hours after a snowfall. It isn't the 1970's anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This is my first time having a house in Long Island when it's going to snow. What kind of snow shovel should I be looking for? I think we're easily looking at 12-18 inches for the Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night/Monday storm. Really wouldn't begin shoveling until Monday. I've gotta get a new hat, new gloves... people are going to make a run on bread and milk at the local Waldbaums and Waldbaums is going to be CLOSED for Christmas. Welcome to Long Island Art. Where did you move from and in which town do you live now? Not sure if its your first house or if you are new to the island. At this point nothing is easy about this weekend's storm; just loads of potential. Bread and milk are overrated; don't run out of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Welcome to Long Island Art. Where did you move from and in which town do you live now? Not sure if its your first house or if you are new to the island. At this point nothing is easy about this weekend's storm; just loads of potential. Bread and milk are overrated; don't run out of beer. i live in smithtown. I moved from brooklyn -- things were much easier when your concierge was shoveling the sidewalk. this is my first house - ever. i'm renting it for now... who knows where it'll go. maybe an option to buy. I can't stand that crap going on in the model forums. hey - i'm looking forward to snow just like everyone else, but come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i live in smithtown. I moved from brooklyn -- things were much easier when your concierge was shoveling the sidewalk. this is my first house - ever. i'm renting it for now... who knows where it'll go. maybe an option to buy. I can't stand that crap going on in the model forums. hey - i'm looking forward to snow just like everyone else, but come on... Well, definitely welcome to Smithtown!! I use an inexpensive shovel (there's an underpowered snow blower collecting dust in the garage...never settle for 3.5 hp). I usually enjoy shoveling, but sometimes it can get a bit tedious. Most of the local landscapers have plowing/driveway clearing businesses in the winter if you don't want to do it yourself; I'm not sure if they charge seasonal, by the inch or whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I've already lost power a couple times in the past few months becuase of high winds... I'm expecting to lose power again. How good is LIPA at responding to power outages during a historic blizzard? Does anybody remember a snowstorm in december 1988? I can't find anything about it anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 December 13, 1988. Kocin book gives technical discussion on page 189 Volume I. Also see pages 13 -15 of linked article... http://journals.amet...TE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 The good ole norlan trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Arguably western Suffolk's greatest snowstorm between 2/12/1983 and the 3/1993 event... I would probably agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Arguably western Suffolk's greatest snowstorm between 2/12/1983 and the 3/1993 event... Forget 3/1993 William, as the change to rain killed the fun for us (10 inches of snow then over an inch of rain lol)..... I'd say it might have been the best between Feb 1983 and Jan 1996! I have faint memories of a few 6-9 inch snowstorms in that interim-- I think one of those was a December event that dumped 8.7 inches on NYC and that would have to be my favorite event in that interval. Most years in that time period we were lucky to get a 4" storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 3/93 helped build my nerves for stuff like what we currently have going on. To get a snow like that and than watch it melt away was killer . Not to mention the 2 inches of water that wound up in my than basement apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 although the Euro looks rediculous I'm leaning towards a more Easterly track passing S of Montauk and the Cape. Not perfect but I think it gives those of us here on the Island a better shot. I am worried about a mixed precip possibility though. William, any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 although the Euro looks rediculous I'm leaning towards a more Easterly track passing S of Montauk and the Cape. Not perfect but I think it gives those of us here on the Island a better shot. I am worried about a mixed precip possibility though. William, any thoughts? I've been around long enough to never rule out a mix or worse when a storm deepens very close to the coast to our south. Yesterdays 12z Op Euro scenario would definitely have raised the spector of mixing. That being said, the storm seems much more likely to be too far east than west this time around. The new 12z GFS is way back west, but still a glancing blow for us. If it were to verify it would be a light to moderate snowstorm with howling winds...we'd enjoy it as it was happening despite not being able to get out of our heads what could have been. But thats not a forecast. The nagging thing at the back of my mind is all the times I've seen outcomes repeated in a given pattern...i.e., as in last weekends miss repeating next weekend. More objectively, our odds are better for the coming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 I've been around long enough to never rule out a mix or worse when a storm deepens very close to the coast to our south. Yesterdays 12z Op Euro scenario would definitely have raised the spector of mixing. That being said, the storm seems much more likely to be too far east than west this time around. The new 12z GFS is way back west, but still a glancing blow for us. If it were to verify it would be a light to moderate snowstorm with howling winds...we'd enjoy it as it was happening despite not being able to get out of our heads what could have been. But thats not a forecast. The nagging thing at the back of my mind is all the times I've seen outcomes repeated in a given pattern...i.e., as in last weekends miss repeating next weekend. More objectively, our odds are better for the coming event. I hear ya and I still feel it goes East of projections. although I am only 1/4 mile from water the wind is what worries me with this one. I'm also scheduled to work an Eve shift on Sunday from 2 pm to 12 so the ride home could be fun. Getting in on Monday could be even more fun Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks William! After last week I would have thought Boston would have been higher. I am really liking what the current runs show for us. Although I am hedging slightly higher than your 4" total. I'm thinking a solid 6+ with higher amounts on the twin forks. I'm also thinking these totals will edge slightly higher over the next 24 hours. Just a gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 0z GFS wet: Montauk: 1.08" Brookhaven / Upton: 0.98" Islip: 0.92" LaGuardia: 0.52" and 0.75" for here-- I highly doubt that works out though..... considering ensembles and now euro are further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Hartford, Worcester and Scranton are probably the most shocking totals. Albany, Portland and Caribou also running far below normal. 90% of real estate is location, location, location. In this instance it is stormtrack, stormtrack, stormtrack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wasn't editorializing on it; just listing it for infomational purposes. ECMWF had, I think 0.1 west to 0.5 east (read that in post / not confirmed). Since we are now within 60 hours, I think a 4" or better snowfall is moving towards the likely category over the Twin Forks, with at least 1" likely in NYC. Once we are within 24 hours, should be able to narrow it down further. Hopefully, NYC can somehow eek out 3" lol to stay away from the bad December--->bad snow season analogy, which is pretty alarming when December receives less than 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 bump this thread for william when he has time to update...acy taking everyone to the woodshed after todays event.....two years in a row they have had more snow at some point in the winter then points north of them....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Central CT ftw Gotta be frustrating in southern ME with Boston getting 50% more snow than you so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Hey William, you should include Upton! What about our local coops in Oceanside, Centerport and Bridgehampton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br />Seasonal Snowfall Through 1/21/2011:<br /><br />Hartford: 57.2"<br />Boston: 49.6"<br />Worcester: 46.9"<br />Albany: 44.8"<br />Newark: 42.4"<br />Portland: 39.4"<br />Bridgeport: 38.7"<br />Caribou: 38.3"<br />NYC Central Park: 36.1"<br />Islip: 35.4"<br />Atlantic City: 30.4"<br />Providence: 29.5"<br />NYC LGA: 27.9"<br />NYC JFK: 26.8"<br />Philadelphia: 22.7"<br />Allentown: 18.2"<br />Norfolk: 18.0"<br />Scranton: 15.4" (Missing Data)<br />Richmond: 10.0"<br />Baltimore: 4.3"<br />Washington National: 3.8"<br />Washington Dulles: 3.8 " <br /><br />Outside of Scranton, Caribou, Baltimore and the two Washington Airports, it appears everyone is running above normal to date.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Thanks, at first I thought it was just me with that huge discrepancy between Central Park, LaGuardia, and JFK. It's almost mind boggling since it's a relatively short distance.Edit: Maybe I shouldn't use this IP Boards app lol, that quote came out odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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