Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Damaging Pattie's ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Pattie's ghost.Downed trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Euro is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Pretty cold next 2 days upcoming with 40's in hills .. Low 50's valley and coast with freezing and below nights. Then torch cutter with big winds and another nice cold shot Friday and Helloween with most towns staying in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Pretty cold next 2 days upcoming with 40's in hills .. Low 50's valley and coast with freezing and below nights. Then torch cutter with big winds and another nice cold shot Friday and Helloween with most towns staying in the 40's Most soundings in the area are still pretty inverted when the core of the +3-5 SD LLJ comes overhead. Maybe your best bet would be with an isallobaric couplet as the front switches winds around to the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Most soundings in the area are still pretty inverted when the core of the +3-5 SD LLJ comes overhead. Maybe your best bet would be with an isallobaric couplet as the front switches winds around to the WSW.Euro usually fairly tame on these events.. So to see it so amped should turn a few light bulbs on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Probably 40-45 mph gusts across SE sections and possibly the higher terrain. I'm not seeing 50-60 based on the modeling right now. The fact is most of these type events don't really produce widespread damage with a 992 near Buffalo and a warm sector and LLJ that affects SE areas the most. Sometimes we grasp for damage and excitement while the vast majority of time it does not deliver in marginal set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Probably 40-45 mph gusts across SE sections and possibly the higher terrain. I'm not seeing 50-60 based on the modeling right now. The fact is most of these type events don't really produce widespread damage with a 992 near Buffalo and a warm sector and LLJ that affects SE areas the most. Sometimes we grasp for damage and excitement while the vast majority of time it does not deliver in marginal set ups.True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Euro usually fairly tame on these events.. So to see it so amped should turn a few light bulbs on We really want some sort of easterly component to the winds to really mix down, otherwise it's just too easy to invert the temp profile. In the absence of some other mitigating factor, it's hard to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We really want some sort of easterly component to the winds to really mix down, otherwise it's just too easy to invert the temp profile. In the absence of some other mitigating factor, it's hard to get too excited. Trees down for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Trees down for everyone. Kev with wind is akin to Wiz with severe. Just hallucinate threats into existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Kev with wind is akin to Wiz with severe. Just hallucinate threats into existence. Akin to you with your winter ideas 3 inches of snowcover in Minsk in October and forcing over Tahiti = 85-100 inches of snow IYBY Big big winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Should put an end to the drought and fire danger chatter for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We really want some sort of easterly component to the winds to really mix down, otherwise it's just too easy to invert the temp profile. In the absence of some other mitigating factor, it's hard to get too excited. The summit of Mount Tolland is at 850 hpa though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The summit of Mount Tolland is at 850 hpa though True, we're not talking about boundary layer processes anymore. I will say that near to post-frontal period may be a little interesting. NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings try and create a small mixed layer and it's still pretty gusty aloft as the LLJ veers around to SSW/WSW. Before that though winds are still only 40 knots around 800 feet. And we know how hard it is to mix winds down from that level with an inversion in place, and the fact that it's at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 True, we're not talking about boundary layer processes anymore. I will say that near to post-frontal period may be a little interesting. NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings try and create a small mixed layer and it's still pretty gusty aloft as the LLJ veers around to SSW/WSW. Before that though winds are still only 40 knots around 800 feet. And we know how hard it is to mix winds down from that level with an inversion in place, and the fact that it's at night. Quite a bit of elevated CAPE too on the NAM around the fropa. 700+ j/kg on the NAM around here as lapse rates steepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 All that points to is a Wiz low topped squall line with gusts 50-55 for a spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The grids are fairly windy in the mountains... this is the 3,000ft grid-point forecast for Stowe. This is fairly significant even for that elevation: Wednesday Night Rain. Low around 47. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The grids are fairly windy in the mountains... this is the 3,000ft grid-point forecast for Stowe. This is fairly significant even for that elevation: Wednesday Night Rain. Low around 47. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. The mountains should rip. The NAM actually has an 80 kt LLJ that would tickle the top of Monadnock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Quite a bit of elevated CAPE too on the NAM around the fropa. 700+ j/kg on the NAM around here as lapse rates steepen. I like the threat for some +RA that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I like the threat for some +RA that's for sure. Yup. Really nice LLJ punch with high PWATs... then the threat for convection later on as lapse rates steepen. Have you been checking out the updated SREFs at all? Curious to see if they're "improved" at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yup. Really nice LLJ punch with high PWATs... then the threat for convection later on as lapse rates steepen. Have you been checking out the updated SREFs at all? Curious to see if they're "improved" at all. I actually hadn't heard anything about the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I actually hadn't heard anything about the SREF. 26 members now and they eliminated one of the cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 26 members now and they eliminated one of the cores. Yep, looks like the NMM is out in favor of 13 members each of the NMMB and ARW. So it's probably still trash for synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Why aren't they all only one core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yep, looks like the NMM is out in favor of 13 members each of the NMMB and ARW. So it's probably still trash for synoptics. Most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Why aren't they all only one core? Guessing they want different model physics in there to give a more accurate "spread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Guessing they want different model physics in there to give a more accurate "spread" Maybe I am not thinking it through, but I wonder if that would reduce some of the crazy solutions, but still have some range of possibilities. Anecdotally, the ARW has performed better IMO, than the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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