CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 In any case, the euro ensembles have been trying to steadily increase ridging in NW Canada at the end of the run. One can assume it may lead to more interesting weather towards mid month, but the models haven't been very stable so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 In any case, the euro ensembles have been trying to steadily increase ridging in NW Canada at the end of the run. One can assume it may lead to more interesting weather towards mid month, but the models haven't been very stable so who knows. Are they torch first 10 days of Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Are they torch first 10 days of Nov? Might turn milder to start the month, but if they are right, it cools off after the 4th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 In any case, the euro ensembles have been trying to steadily increase ridging in NW Canada at the end of the run. One can assume it may lead to more interesting weather towards mid month, but the models haven't been very stable so who knows. might be a kind of lr war there... the GEFs derived tele's have, for the 3rd consecutive night, flagged a very strong warming signal. i mean, record territory dailies and an assumption of operational versions being not warmly ridged out enough in the east, would all be better fits for the american-based indices. doesn't make them right, but currently, objectively there is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 might be a kind of lr war there... the GEFs derived tele's have, for the 3rd consecutive night, flagged a very strong warming signal. i mean, record territory dailies and an assumption of operational versions being not warmly ridged out enough in the east, would all be better fits for the american-based indices. doesn't make them right, but currently, objectively there is nothing Yeah the beginning of the month could be warm. That's a big Bering Sea vortex with a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Another couple of days in the 70's in BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 Did anyone notice that a similar pattern to that which set up last May is plaguing N TX again ... ? Excessive/xtreem rain fall totals (some points nearing a foot of water!) along a wedge of lift that seemingly doesn't move, pulsing 50 dbz rain balls endlessly... The flooding is likely about to break Press if that has not already happened, one would think. But anyway, it hearkens to the notion of residence/patterns. It may be transmitted right through the season of summer, but it's like a base-state pattern from last spring has returned. When taking into account seasonal lags, in a sense October can be like May sometimes (though September is probably better). Not sure what it all means, but I don't think the pattern similarities is a coincidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Did anyone notice that a similar pattern to that which set up last May is plaguing N TX again ... ? Excessive/xtreem rain fall totals (some points nearing a foot of water!) along a wedge of lift that seemingly doesn't move, pulsing 50 dbz rain balls endlessly... The flooding is likely about to break Press if that has not already happened, one would think. But anyway, it hearkens to the notion of residence/patterns. It may be transmitted right through the season of summer, but it's like a base-state pattern from last spring has returned. When taking into account seasonal lags, in a sense October can be like May sometimes (though September is probably better). Not sure what it all means, but I don't think the pattern similarities is a coincidence... Winter 2015 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Yo soy el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Yo soy el nino. Tu eres un weenieo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Tu eres un weenieo Si. Mucho weenieo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 All other tropical storms bow before El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 What's this talk of torching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 That 's a brutal Euro run into early Nov. warm warm warm. Glad it's not Dec..though it'll probably look very similar a month from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 That 's a brutal Euro run into early Nov. warm warm warm. Glad it's not Dec..though it'll probably look very similar a month from now Rethinking your snow poll votes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Rethinking your snow poll votes? Yes..I don't think it's going to snow now in Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Yes..I don't think it's going to snow now in Nov As I told you a few days ago, beginning of November will be warm. However, good luck basing a monthly forecast at the end of an op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 How long and how strong a warmup ? Looks innocuous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 How long and how strong a warmup ? Looks innocuous to me. It will be for a few days, but I don't see any cool down to well BN. Perhaps after the first week it cools off more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 As I told you a few days ago, beginning of November will be warm. However, good luck basing a monthly forecast at the end of an op run. Using an ensemble approach has always been my preferred method Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Using an ensemble approach has always been my preferred method For monthly snow? I guess you didn't look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 For monthly snow? I guess you didn't look.For forecasting in general. And nothing shows cold pattern or snow potential thru mid Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 For forecasting in general. And nothing shows cold pattern or snow potential thru mid Nov Well you said no snow for the month. Maybe you have a magic model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Well you said no snow for the month. Maybe you have a magic model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Look forward to my .4 average snow in Nov Meh month until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 It will be for a few days, but I don't see any cool down to well BN. Perhaps after the first week it cools off more.Yeah...EPS raises hgts on the west coast and knock down the SE ridge a bit by the end of the run. It's not great...maybe call it less bad?We've had a couple of nice cold shots already so I'm all for the warmth. Who wants to blow their cold load in early Novie anyways? Save it for Thanksgiving and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Who wants to blow their cold load in early Novie anyways?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Yeah...EPS raises hgts on the west coast and knock down the SE ridge a bit by the end of the run. It's not great...maybe call it less bad? We've had a couple of nice cold shots already so I'm all for the warmth. Who wants to blow their cold load in early Novie anyways? Save it for Thanksgiving and beyond. But but but seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Yeah...EPS raises hgts on the west coast and knock down the SE ridge a bit by the end of the run. It's not great...maybe call it less bad? We've had a couple of nice cold shots already so I'm all for the warmth. Who wants to blow their cold load in early Novie anyways? Save it for Thanksgiving and beyond. But why can't it just be cold all the time? Why does it have to be early Novie or late Novie? We just need -10C H85s throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Big winds on the Euro Wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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